The US Women’s national soccer team stands just one victory away from the Olympic Final, and two steps away from their third straight Olympic gold. Standing in their way is the team in the Olympic tournament the Americans know best.
Five times in the past 20 months, the Canadian national team has lined up against the USA and five times they have come away without a victory against the American squad currently ranked No. 1 in the world.
There have been blowout wins for the US, as well as some close wins, and even a 1-1 draw less than a year ago, but it is safe to say the Canadians have never gone into a meeting with their North American neighbors with more confidence than they have heading into their crucial Olympic semifinal meeting at Old Trafford on Monday.
Making a run to the Olympic semifinals and knocking off highly-favored Great Britain will do that for you, and pushing the USA to the brink before dropping a close 2-1 decision just a month ago will only help grow their belief in themselves.
For the USA, confidence won’t be a problem heading into the semifinals. Three straight shutout victories and a perfect 4-0 record has Pia Sundhage’s team feeling good about completing the mission of securing Olympic gold. Even though goals aren’t coming as easily as was expected for the Americans, the impressive work of their defense has the USA looking every bit like a tournament favorite heading into a Monday’s semifinal.
So why does a match against a team that hasn’t beaten the USA in more than a decade still feel like a tricky proposition? Canada knows the USA better than any other team in the tournament, and while the US team’s 43-3-5 all-time record against Canada certainly suggests the Americans don’t have much to worry about, both teams know better.
Canada gave the USA all they could handle when the teams met in Utah on June 30th, and only a dazzling effort by Megan Rapinoe in the sweltering conditions at Rio Tinto Stadium kept Canada from pulling off the upset.
Monday’s rematch should be a more wide open affair, with Canada boasting the toughest attack the USA has seen since its opening 4-2 victory against France. Christine Sinclair is one of the most dangerous forwards in the tournament and she will present a serious challenge to the U.S. team’s 346-minute shutout streak.
Sinclair is hardly Canada’s only weapon. Melissa Tancredi has impressed during these Olympics while the Canadian defense looked sharp in shutting down Great Britain in the quarterfinals.
Much like they did the last time these teams met, the USA is going to need a strong performance from Rapinoe, who has struggled in the team’s past two matches after starting the tournament as one of the US team’s best players. The Americans have the speed on the flanks to give Canada problems, but they will need Rapinoe at her energetic best to dominate the midfield.
One of the main keys to watch for the Americans will be how Alex Morgan rebounds from a quarterfinal that saw her miss a handful of clear-cut chances in uncharacteristic fashion. She still set up Abby Wambach’s game-winner in the victory against New Zealand, and she has been one of the team’s best players this tournament, but the USA will need her to finish the chances that come if they are going to avoid the upset.
What should be different about Monday’s semifinal from the past three USA matches is the Americans will be facing an opponent that won’t be afraid to send numbers forward and really challenge the US defense. As impressive as the current shutout streak is, there is little debating that goalkeeper Hope Solo hasn’t had much to do in the past three matches.
That is very likely to change with Sinclair and Tancredi prowling the final third, though the USA defense could very well receive a boost from the return of defensive midfielder Shannon Boxx, who has been sidelined since the France match. Her presence in the middle of the field will make it that much tougher for Canada’s midfield to create chances.
If Boxx returns—along with Morgan’s scoring touch—then the Americans will be a safe bet to reach the Olympic Final. But if the USA doesn’t finish its chances, and if Canada’s forwards carry over the momentum from the Great Britain victory, the United States could see the quest for Olympic gold derailed by a familiar foe that has been waiting a long time to get the better of their neighbor.
