The Royals are an incredible story, and the Orioles are an incredible story, and when you break down a big incredible story into its component bits, you're left with a whole bunch of tinier incredible stories. Among the possessors of those stories on the Orioles is closer Zach Britton, who, like a lot of good relievers, is a failed starter. Britton failed to build on a promising rookie season and was reduced this year to bullpen work, but in that role Britton has excelled. And not only is it remarkable that he's excelled -- it's remarkable how he's excelled.
If you're familiar with Britton, you know the story. If you're not, you will be. Britton, basically, has one pitch. He'll mix in the occasional breaking ball, but nine times out of ten, Britton is attacking with his sinker. People liked his sinker when he was a starter and it flew in at 92 miles per hour. Now it's coming in at 96, so it doubles as both a setup pitch and a putaway pitch. Kenley Jansen has his cutter, Jake McGee has his four-seamer, and Zach Britton has his sinker. It's the pitch that's allowed him to tie for the highest single-season groundball rate we have on record.
Britton's sinker is the whole secret to his success, in that people can't do anything with it even when they know that it's coming. At FanGraphs we track pitch values, which measure the quality of a single pitch based on the results that it gets. This year, Johnny Cueto had the highest fastball pitch value. McGee came in second -- he's also a one-pitch pitcher. Then you've got Clayton Kershaw, then you've got Zach Britton, and of course, Cueto and Kershaw were starters. Britton had one of the most dominant individual pitches in baseball, allowing him to be a shutdown closer, and so far in the playoffs Britton hasn't thrown anything but his bread and butter. He knows what's been working for him.
A few people have remarked that when they see Britton's sinker in action, they're reminded of Jonny Venters. Unfortunately Venters hasn't been able to pitch in the majors since 2012, so I found myself curious: does anybody else in baseball throw Zach Britton's sinker? Does it have peers, or is it a standalone pitch? After thinking on it, I've come up with a method. And for simplicity, I'm ignoring handedness concerns. Left-handed and right-handed sinkers will be combined.
For the record, this is what Britton's sinker looks like.
Gross. Anyway, to get the information I wanted, I headed over to the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards. I selected only data from 2014, and then I began the sorting. Britton throws hard, so I set a lower threshold of 95 miles per hour. Britton's sinker has a good amount of run, so I set a lower threshold of eight inches of horizontal movement. And Britton's sinker has a good amount of drop, so I set an upper threshold of five inches of vertical movement. That probably sounds counter-intuitive but, trust me. What was I left with? Nine candidate sinkers. Let's examine.
Aaron Sanchez
Click here to see Sanchez's sinker.
The hard-throwing Blue Jays prospect had a very promising debut in relief. Critics don't trust his control as a starter, but as a reliever, he might already be prepared to make an impact. He allowed five runs in 33 innings!
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
The other thing about Britton is that, because of his delivery, he's throwing at a reasonably extreme downward angle. He released his sinker 6.75 feet off the ground. Sanchez comes in at a more ordinary six feet, so the plane is different, and hitters are less likely to beat the pitch into the ground.
Adam Ottavino
Click here to see Ottavino's sinker.
People don't talk much about Ottavino, because people don't talk much about relievers in Colorado, but Ottavino's been good for a strikeout an inning, and he's coming off three straight years of being a solid contributor.
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
Ottavino throws his sinker just 10 percent of the time. It's not a featured pitch for him, which is kind of half of the whole point. Also, Ottavino's sinker is slower. Also, his release point is lower than Sanchez's release point.
Blake Treinen
Click here to see Treinen's sinker.
The pretty good Nationals pitcher you haven't heard of because you've heard of all the other pretty good Nationals pitchers. Treinen barely walked anyone in the minors and then he came up and ran a 2.49 ERA. He's statistically unsexy, but he's got this weapon going for him.
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
I'm going to spoil the rest of this: this is the closest match. The velocity is there, the movement is there, and though Treinen's release point isn't quite as high as Britton's is, it's mighty close, and he also threw the sinker last year more than 70 percent of the time. If someone's going to full-on become the next Zach Britton, Treinen is my candidate, if the Nationals decide to move him from the rotation, which they might not do.
Carlos Carrasco
Click here to see Carrasco's sinker.
Last season in the second half, Carrasco posted a sub-2 ERA, with a whole lot of strikeouts and a whole dearth of walks. While not everyone is completely sold, if Carrasco is turning into an elite-level starting pitcher, he's got the right numbers.
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
Carrasco hardly ever throws his sinker, going just 5 percent of the time. Plus, his release point is a full foot lower than Britton's is, so it's coming at the hitter on a more horizontal path.
Carlos Martinez
Click here to see Martinez's sinker.
This is one of the guys people have in mind when they say the Cardinals have too much good pitching. It's not entirely clear whether Martinez will be a long-term starter or reliever, but there's not a single person who questions the ability in his arm.
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
Martinez's release point is lower still than Carrasco's, at about five and a half feet. And while Martinez throws his sinker more than Carrasco does, it still represents just 20 percent of his pitches, as he's got a more explosive four-seamer that he prefers to feature.
Daniel Webb
Click here to see Webb's sinker.
There's good reason people would make fun of the White Sox's bullpen, and Webb is fairly anonymous, but then, he made this list, which is selective for at least one pitch of considerable intrigue.
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
Lower release point, far lower usage. Webb prefers his four-seamer, and he even slightly prefers his slider, so the sinker is a third pitch that shares that tier with a changeup. Again, a key characteristic of Britton's sinker is that it's deployed extremely heavily. It's not really a pitch trait, per se, but it hints at a pitcher's confidence.
Jeff Samardzija
Click here to see Samardzija's sinker.
Blake Treinen might turn into the next Zach Britton. Jeff Samardzija probably will not, because he is a very good starting pitcher with a broad assortment of weapons!
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
Samardzija, officially, stands two inches taller than Britton does. However, Samardzija has a much lower arm angle, such that his release point is about ten inches lower than Britton's is. So we've got that plane consideration again, which is a point against Samardzija, as is his sinker usage, even though it's pretty high for a strikeout starting pitcher.
Jeremy Jeffress
Click here to see Jeffress' sinker.
Jeffress has always had visually outstanding stuff, but like so many guys with that profile, he struggled with strikes. As a big-leaguer between 2010 - 2013, Jeffress walked 35 hitters in 49 innings. Last year he walked just ten in 32, and two of those walks were intentional. So that's exciting.
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
The release-point thing again. It's about a foot lower, as Jeffress has a lower arm angle. He does, though, throw the sinker nearly 70% of the time, and it's incredibly fast, so, kudos to Jeffress on the pitch, even if it's not an exact comp of Britton's primary weapon.
Sam Dyson
Click here to see Dyson's sinker.
Trivia: do you know what the Marlins traded to the Blue Jays to get Sam Dyson? The answer is, nothing, it was a waiver claim. Dyson's also a someone who's a no-one, but he just generated a ton of grounders and he didn't run into too much walk trouble.
Why it's not quite Britton's sinker
Officially, Dyson is 6-foot-1, but he drops his arm when he throws, so his release point is lower than Britton's by more than 13 inches. He does, for what it's worth, throw his sinker a lot, although not as much as Jeffress.
*****
So where are we? There is no perfect comp out there for Britton's sinker. The closest we've got is Blake Treinen's sinker, and to be fair, it's awful close. There are similar sinkers in terms of velocity and movement, but where Britton stands out is his vertical release point, which is almost seven feet off the ground. So Britton is throwing on a more downward plane, exaggerating the movement and making it all the harder to see the ball and put it in the air. The nine sinkers above averaged 17 percent whiffs per swing, and 65 percent grounders per ball in play. Britton's sinker stands at 29 percent whiffs per swing, and 77 percent grounders per ball in play. It's an extreme version of an extreme pitch, which is why Britton can use it almost exclusively, and succeed.
Maybe, down the road, Blake Treinen will be another Zach Britton. Maybe someone else will emerge. For now, he's by himself, another one-pitch late reliever whose pitch has yet to be solved. Zach Britton's sinker doesn't have a perfect peer, and Zach Britton is his own sinker.
