The national championship the entire nation dreamed of will take place Monday with Wisconsin listed as a 1 point favorite against the Duke Blue Devils. Ok, not the match-up everyone wanted or thought we were going to see until some abysmal late game possessions from the then undefeated Wildcats made it all possible. I won't take the Andrew Harrison type approach, instead giving Wisconsin full credit for earning their first trip to the national title game since 1941.
I'm still in shock that Coach Cal drew limited criticism for the way his Cats executed down the stretch, appearing content to milk the clock with a 60-56 lead rather than attacking the hoop with the same sense of urgency that created their lead. However, I digress, we have the biggest game of the college basketball season taking place tonight and you've all come here to get some gambling advice...or if nothing else Fade Fuhrman. (You can also make the risky decision to Trust Travis, since he's somehow 6-1 in the last seven college basketball picks he's made, including 3-0 Saturday with a money line win on Wisconsin. I give up.)
Opening Line: Wisconsin (PK, 140.5) vs Duke
Current Line: Wisconsin (-1, 139) vs Duke
The Backstory...
Duke enters the title game the nation's hottest team against the spread, covering all five tournament games comfortably (with the lone exception Utah but I've erased that game from memory). Going back to late February the Blue Devils are 9-1 ATS with their lone blemish coming against Notre Dame in the ACC tournament. We know the faces Duke will throw at Wisconsin, led by Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow. Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker might be the only tandem more formidable right now, surely providing headaches for Coach K and his team's preparation.
The thing is bettors don't give a shit about any of this, it's what team will bring it Monday night and get their hard earned dollars to the window. You can throw the ACC's last 5 head to head victories over Big Ten opponents in the national title completely out the window but it's a very real concern that Wisconsin might not be capable of duplicating a Herculean effort for the 2nd time in 3 days.
Who they're betting...
It comes as no surprise to bookmakers or bettors that we've seen initial money on the Badgers after their historic upset on Saturday. Sharp money also backed the Badgers Saturday, taking the opening price of +6 against UK all the way down to +4.5 before tip-off. We're seeing a perfect storm for tonight's game combining a team the pros have backed in 3 straight games, Wisconsin, against a Duke side that's been faded at the professional bettors expense all tournament long. For whatever reason pros haven't bought into the Devils, paying dearly for it over the last 10 games stretch. Early indications from most books, both offshore and here in Vegas, are that they expect not only a healthy handle on the game but also very balanced action.
Dissecting the Total...
140.5 on the open down to 139, hardly a surprising move on the over/under in a championship where pro bettors naturally gravitate towards the under. Wisconsin has gone over the posted total in 5 of their last 6 while it's been the resurgent Duke defense leading the Blue Devils to an 8-2 under record over their last 10. Saturday's game just snuck over the closing number of 139 despite Duke holding MSU to a paltry 61 on the offensive end. Don't be surprised if the Badgers revert to their commitment at the defensive end for a game of this magnitude meaning you can expect more under money leading up to gametime while the public goes the other way intent to root for points.
Props...
Westgate Superbook hung a laundry list of player propositions for tonight's game. Here's the complete run down to keep you entertained while sitting at the bar with your buddies trying to devise a drinking game that would make all of us here at Outkick proud.
TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 13.0 -110
UNDER 13.0 -110
LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110
TEAM TO MAKE FIRST 3 POINT FIELD GOAL
WISCONSIN -110
DUKE -110
TEAM TO SCORE 5 POINTS FIRST
WISCONSIN -110
DUKE -110
TEAM TO SCORE 10 POINTS FIRST
WISCONSIN -110
DUKE -110
TEAM TO SCORE 15 POINTS FIRST
WISCONSIN -110
DUKE -110
TEAM TO SCORE 20 POINTS FIRST
WISCONSIN -115
DUKE -105
TOTAL POINTS BY: FRANK KAMINSKY (WISCONSIN)
OVER 19.0 -110
UNDER 19.0 -110
TOTAL REBOUNDS BY: FRANK KAMINSKY (WISCONSIN)
OVER 8.5 EVEN
UNDER 8.5 -120
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: FRANK KAMINSKY (WISCONSIN)
OVER 4.5 +110
UNDER 4.5 -130
TOTAL POINTS BY: SAM DEKKER (WISCONSIN)
OVER 15.5 -110
UNDER 15.5 -110
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: SAM DEKKER (WISCONSIN)
OVER 2.5 +120
UNDER 2.5 -140
TOTAL POINTS BY: NIGEL HAYES (WISCONSIN)
OVER 12.5 EVEN
UNDER 12.5 -120
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: NIGEL HAYES (WISCONSIN)
OVER 3.5 +110
UNDER 3.5 -130
TOTAL POINTS BY: BRONSON KOENIG (WISCONSIN)
OVER 9.5 -110
UNDER 9.5 -110
TOTAL POINTS BY: JOSH GASSER (WISCONSIN)
OVER 6.5 +105
UNDER 6.5 -125
TOTAL POINTS BY: TRAVEON JACKSON (WISCONSIN)
OVER 5.5 -110
UNDER 5.5 -110
TOTAL FIRST HALF POINTS BY: WISCONSIN
OVER 33.0 -110
UNDER 33.0 -110
TOTAL POINTS BY: WISCONSIN
OVER 70.5 -110
UNDER 70.5 -110
TOTAL POINTS BY: JAHLIL OKAFOR (DUKE)
OVER 18.0 -110
UNDER 18.0 -110
TOTAL REBOUNDS BY: JAHLIL OKAFOR (DUKE)
OVER 8.0 -110
UNDER 8.0 -110
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: JAHLIL OKAFOR (DUKE)
OVER 2.5 -110
UNDER 2.5 -110
TOTAL POINTS BY: JUSTISE WINSLOW (DUKE)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110
TOTAL REBOUNDS BY: JUSTISE WINSLOW (DUKE)
OVER 7.5 -110
UNDER 7.5 -110
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: JUSTISE WINSLOW (DUKE)
OVER 2.5 -120
UNDER 2.5 EVEN
TOTAL POINTS BY: TYUS JONES (DUKE)
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: TYUS JONES (DUKE)
OVER 2.5 -140
UNDER 2.5 +120
TOTAL POINTS BY: QUINN COOK (DUKE)
OVER 14.5 -110
UNDER 14.5 -110
TOTAL FREE THROWS MADE BY: QUINN COOK (DUKE)
OVER 2.5 -110
UNDER 2.5 -110
TOTAL POINTS BY: MATT JONES (DUKE)
OVER 6.5 -110
UNDER 6.5 -110
TOTAL FIRST HALF POINTS BY: DUKE
OVER 32.5 -110
UNDER 32.5 -110
TOTAL POINTS BY: DUKE
OVER 70.0 -110
UNDER 70.0 -110
The Bet...
I'm not here to encourage you to walk to the window and make a bet without conviction. The line on the title game is as sharp as you'll find between two teams that appear very evenly matched. On one side the blue bloods of the college basketball world, Duke, are seeking another national title while Wisconsin looks to attain heights their hoops program hasn't seen in ages. I'm not about to stand in front of a throw back college basketball side in Wisconsin led by a senior and rising junior playing their best ball of the season. Calling it love for the Badgers in this game would be a bold overstatement of my feelings but I feel it's the only way to look in this game. Frankly, the best bet you can make come Monday in my opinion is the 1st half under the total. Expect nerves and a bit of edge from both sides as they look to make history Monday night in Indianapolis.
