The clock is ticking on the 2014-15 NHL season, and with its conclusion also comes the end of Red Wings coach Mike Babcock's contract. And potentially a lot of hand-wringing.
Will he go the way of other Detroit free agents, such as Max Scherzer and Ndamukong Suh, opting for a huge contract elsewhere? Or will he give the Wings a significant hometown discount to stay beyond the 10 productive years they've enjoyed together?
As the regular season winds down, talk of Babcock's future is heating up around the NHL. It was the topic of conversation between periods of Sunday's nationally televised Red Wings-Penguins game in Pittsburgh.
Negotiations between the Wings and Babcock have been tabled since the start of the season, when Detroit offered him a long-term deal that would have made him the highest-paid coach in the league -- a well-earned distinction, by the way. The deal is presumed to be worth between $3 million and $3.5 million over four or five years.
But will that be enough to keep him? It's widely believed that Toronto, which has had eyes for Babcock for years now, might be willing to part with $5 million per season on a long-term deal.
More recently, Philadelphia -- where owner Ed Snider covets a Stanley Cup after some near-misses -- has been mentioned as landing spot for Babcock if he decides to leave Detroit.
Other teams no doubt will be seeking coaches after the season, too. Among the leading contenders for coaching vacancies: San Jose, Buffalo, Edmonton and even Boston if the underachieving Bruins don't finish strong.
But among all those teams, only the Maple Leafs and Flyers would likely even consider paying Babcock what he could command.
The Wings have every right to feel they've made the right and fair offer to keep their coach. And though no one in the organization is speaking publicly about it, they like to think their odds are about 4-1 in favor of keeping him.
For his part, Babcock is saying all the right things, without commenting on the status of contract talks: He likes it in Detroit. His family is comfortable here. He likes his team and is optimistic about its future. Oh, and like most coaches, he likes winning.
The Wings are betting he'll stay in Detroit for that reason alone. This is a good franchise, deep in talent throughout the organization, with a great upside.
It won't be like that in Toronto, where the Leafs are undergoing a massive roster overhaul -- which, they say, is a rebuilding process that will take 3-5 years before they can be considered a serious Stanley Cup contender. And that time frame might be awfully optimistic.
As Mike Milbury -- the former general manager and coach, now an NBC studio analyst -- said Sunday: "A great coach lines up behind great players."
Babcock isn't a top-six forward or a top-four defenseman, but as a coach, "he's a glue guy, one who can put everything together in place," Milbury said. "And he's as confident a coach as there is in the league ... but he can't go to a place like Toronto and think he's going to turn it around in a couple of years."
Losing is painful for guys who are used to winning. But how much pain could Babcock put up with for, say, $7.5 million dollars? Think about it:
If he takes Detroit's offer of $3.5 million a year over five years, he'd collect $17.5 million over the life of the contract, excluding any bonuses for accomplishments, such as extended playoff runs or Coach of the Year honors. If Toronto or Philly end up offering him $5 million a year for five years, he'd collect a minimum of $25 million -- or $7.5 million more over the life of the contract than he would in Detroit.
That kind of money eases a lot of pain. Especially if one of those teams were to offer him control over personnel, something a lot of coaches wish they had.
That's not likely to happen in Detroit, where the Wings have one of the best general managers in sports in Ken Holland. And he isn't about to give up that most-important duty.
One more thing to consider: How much responsibility does Babcock feel toward his coaching brethren?
NHL coaches make up a small, close-knit fraternity, and Babcock would be doing none of them a favor if he took smaller money in Detroit instead of a big raise somewhere else. A raise like that would buoy the entire group, with salaries rising as teams competed for the best coaches.
On the players' side, Wayne Gretzky took a lot of heat at the height of his career -- as did Gordie Howe a generation before him -- by settling for a lot lower salary than he could have commanded in the market conditions of his time.
My guess is that this is one more thing that Babcock is weighing heavily as he works toward a decision.
So what if Toronto or Philadelphia make the kind of offer Babcock will find difficult, perhaps impossible, to refuse? Will the Wings match it? Or will they wish him luck with his new team and turn to someone new to lead this entertaining, talented, young team to a 25th consecutive season of Stanley Cup tournament hockey?
No one knows for certain because neither the Wings nor Babcock are saying right now. But until they reach an agreement, one way or another, speculation about his future will remain rampant.
Stay tuned.
(Tomorrow: If Babcock bolts, who might replace him?)
