Less than 24 hours after getting wiped out in their Division Series opener against the Orioles, the Tigers are turning to Justin Verlander. Which does seem a little odd, considering he’s only their third- our fourth-best starting pitcher (depending on how you figure these things). Are they going with Verlander because he’s been pitching better lately? From a Wednesday interview:
Q: Brad Ausmus said, in his words, your last few starts have been outstanding. Over the last four or five games, your ERA has dropped. Is it an adjustment or being healthier?
Justin Verlander: I think it's a combination of things. Some of the adjustments I made started to take hold, you know, and just felt more comfortable out there on the mound and started locating my pitches better. Definitely started feeling better toward the end of the season.
I think some of the adjustments I was trying to make early, they wear you out a little bit because you're working so hard to try to fix them. So there at the end, it was just letting the adjustments take course and don't worry about it. Get into my regular throwing routine and go out there and pitch and it seemed to have a good affect.
As I wrote yesterday about Jason Vargas, it’s our natural tendency to make too much of small things, a.k.a. the Recency Bias. Vargas had struggled in his last four regular-season starts, but was just marginally more likely to struggle in his first postseason start. Way back on the 11th of August, Verlander lasted just one inning against the Pirates. In his succeeding seven starts, he pitched 47 innings, gave up only two home runs, and struck out 41 while walking only 10.
A couple of caveats, though: all seven of those starts came against Central Division foes, and only the Twins (yes, this surprises me, too) scored more runs than the league average this season. Verlander did pitch well down the stretch ... but he’s still obviously not the Verlander of old. He simply doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. He used to routinely throw 95 and occasionally touched 100; now he throws 92 and sometimes hits 95. His fastball and curveball both used to be fearsome pitches; now they’re mere shadows, with his slider doing the best work this season. For the same reason we should have looked at Vargas’s entire body of work this season, so we should look at Verlander’s ... and by the way, Vargas pitched just as well as Verlander this season.
Granted, I didn’t quibble with the Royals’ selection of Vargas as their Game 1 starter ... so what’s wrong with Verlander as the Tigers’ Game 2 starter? That’s easy: the Royals don’t have David Price.
Also granted, the Game 2 starter is highly unlikely to start Game 5, should there be one; that honor would almost certainly go to a well-rested Max Scherzer. So if Verlander and Price will each start just once, it wouldn’t seem to matter too terribly much the order ... except for one thing. We know the Tigers’ bullpen has been a problem (same as it ever was). If Price started Game 2, he would be available for relief duties in Game 5 and have the benefit of four days rest. But starting Game 3, he’ll have only two days before Game 5. He’ll still be available, we’re told, and he seems enthusiastic about pitching. But wouldn’t he be more available and possibly more effective with the extra rest.
I think Verlander’s getting the Game 2 start because he’s been the greater pitcher in the past, and because he’s been a Tiger for his whole career. Does he give the Tigers the best chance to win, though? That’s the part I’m not so sure about. Over the last two seasons, Price has clearly been the superior pitcher, posting better numbers while (most of the time) pitching against tougher competition. Granted, his postseason record isn’t good. But I wouldn’t read much – actually, I wouldn’t read anything at all – into four starts over the course of four years.
One positive, though: If the Tigers do need some relief help in Game 5, Verlander might actually be well-suited for the chore, as most of their good hitters bat right-handed.
