Who has the best chance to spoil California Chrome's Triple Crown bid?
There are 10 horses that will try and prevent California Chrome from winning the Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown on Saturday. They’ll all be in the starting gate. However, some absolutely astonish if they won. Here’s a look at the challengers, contenders and pretenders.
6. Matuszak (30-1)
Comment: This horse would be the mother of all stunners. He has won a maiden race and that is that. He wasn’t able to keep up with Kid Cruz. Trainer and jockey did combine to pull off a surprise with Drosselmeyer in 2010. This wouldn’t be a surprise. It would be beyond shocking.
3. Matterhorn (30-1)
Comment: The best point you can make for Matterhorn is that he actually finished ahead of Peter Pan winner and fellow Belmont entrant Tonalist in their debut. That said, Tonalist has moved way up and Matterhorn hasn’t. Don’t expect him to contend in any way, shape or form.
1. Medal Count (20-1)
Comment: The trip in the Derby en route to an eighth-place finish wasn’t smooth. That is not enough of an excuse to give him a big shot here. Finished second in the Blue Grass, but that is over a synthetic surface. And Belmont’s “Big Sandy” isn’t synthetic. Doesn’t figure.
8. Commissioner (20-1)
Comment: Was no match for Tonalist over a wet strip in the Peter Pan. Would have to setp way, way up to compete here … for a small part of the purse.
4. Commanding Curve (15-1)
Comment: His connections are ultra-confident. They think the Derby runner-up is going to win the Belmont Stakes. That said, he was 50-1 at Churchill Downs and has one win in seven starts. He’ll take some money off the Run for the Roses. However, he was a long, long shot there and has a lot to prove to ruin the Triple Crown dream.
7. Samraat (20-1)
Comment: If you are looking for a horse for the course, this could be your long shot play. He won his first five career starts on the New York circuit (Aqueduct/Belmont) and was impressive in doing so. The Withers and Gotham winner likes it in the Big Apple and he could use the home cooking to improve on his fifth-place effort in the Kentucky Derby.
5. Ride On Curlin (12-1)
Comment: His runnerup finish in the Preakness showed improvement off the seventh-place finish in the Derby. Ride on Curlin had trouble at Churchill and he showed improvement at Pimlico. That said, he wasn’t menacing California Chrome. He’s consistent and should be on the board or in the superfecta. For him to pull the upset, he’d have to take another major step up. Remember, he’s trying to run three races in five weeks, too.
8. Wicked Strong (6-1)
Comment: Won the Wood Memorial, New York’s biggest Triple Crown prep, with a furious run through the stretch. A sentimental choice as a percentage of his earning goes to the One Fund. The thought that his closing kick makes him a danger in the Belmont is overrated. If the pace isn’t honest, that could compromise Wicked Strong’s chances. If it is swift, it would be beneficial and he could be a threat late.
10. General a Rod (20-1)
Comment: Here’s the obligatory Napravnik would joing Julie Krone as the second woman to win a Triple Crown race. Krone won the Belmont in 1993 on Colonial Affair. He had some late kick when fourth in the Preakness after encountering early trouble. Hard-knocking sort. Of all the long, long shots, this one seems to be the most live.
11. Tonalist (8-1)
Comment: He comes into the Belmont off a rousing victory in the Peter Pan Stakes. Looms as the major danger. "His strength is he goes along faster than most horses," trainer Clement said. That helps in all races, especially the big ones. Does he have enough of a foundation with four career starts to get the 1½ miles? If he does, he looms as the spoiler.
