INDIANAPOLIS -- The NFL Scouting Combine is underway, bringing decision makers from every NFL team together for an up-close look at more than 300 prospects eligible for the 2015 NFL Draft.
Many eyes are on the consensus top quarterbacks in this draft, Marcus Mariota of Oregon and Jameis Winston of Florida State. Both are early entries to the draft, so even though neither turning pro was a surprise, interested teams are getting their first real exposure to Mariota and Winston this week.
History says more good quarterbacks come from early in the draft than anywhere else.
Quarterback-needy teams will still do their research on others, both this week and over the next six or so weeks. Quarterbacks from various backgrounds have gone on to become franchise-type players, and they've done it at various stages of their careers.
New England Patriots selected Tom Brady in the sixth round, No. 199 overall, of the 2000 Draft.
Somebody always wins Powerball, too.
A look at the teams who have winning records over the last five years shows most of them are drafting their own quarterbacks early -- the first 36 picks -- and that there's only one Brady.
Acquiring Peyton Manning or Drew Brees via free agency hasn't been a bad plan, either, but those situations are rare. Over the last five years, 16 teams have cumulative winning records and a majority of those have done it with homegrown quarterbacks acquired early in the draft.
The list and each team's record over the last five seasons is below...
Patriots: 63-17 (Tom Brady, sixth round)
Packers: 56-24 (Aaron Rodgers, No. 24 overall)
Ravens: 52-28 (Joe Flacco, No. 18 overall)
Steelers: 51-29 (Ben Roethlisberger, No. 11 overall)
Seahawks: 50-30 (Three straight winning seasons with Russell Wilson, third round)
Broncos: 50-30 (Kyle Orton, fourth-rounder by trade, Tim Tebow No. 25 overall, Peyton Manning, free agent)
49ers: 50-30 (Alex Smith, No. 1 overall replaced by Colin Kaepernick, second round, No. 36 overall)
Saints: 49-31 (Drew Brees, former No. 32 overall acquired via free agency)
Falcons: 46-34 (Matt Ryan, No. 2 overall)
Colts: 45-35 (Peyton Manning, No. 1 overall, eventually via injury/release to Andrew Luck, No. 1 overall)
Bengals: 44-36 (Andy Dalton, second round, No. 35 overall)
Eagles: 42-38 (Michael Vick, former No. 1 overall acquired by free agency after prison stint, Nick Foles, third rounder)
Cowboys: 42-38 (Tony Romo, undrafted)
Chargers: 42-38 (Philip Rivers, No. 4 overall - draft-day trade)
Bears: 42-38 (Jay Cutler, former first-rounder acquired by trade)
Giants: 41-39 (Eli Manning, No. 1 overall - draft-day trade)
Of the 16 teams with winning records over the last five seasons, 10 did it with quarterbacks who have never played anywhere else.
The Browns over the last five seasons are 25-55.
The Browns swung and missed in 2012 with Brandon Weeden, who was taken at No. 22 overall and released after two seasons. They got little out of 2014 No. 22 overall pick Johnny Manziel in what amounted to seven quarters last year. The selection of Brady Quinn at No. 22 overall in 2007 makes three first-rounders in the last 10 years with no playoff appearances in that span.
In the last 10 drafts, 27 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. Most years either two or three have been taken; the outliers were four being selected in the first round in both 2011 and 2012, and just one in 2013.
Taking out the four selected in the last two drafts, 11 of the remaining 23 got the team that drafted them to the playoffs.
There's no such thing as a sure thing.
From 2005-11, 10 of 19 quarterbacks selected in the first round lasted four or fewer seasons with the team that drafted them. That number becomes 11 if Jake Locker leaves the Titans via free agency.
The following shows the eight teams to be playing in the divisional round (second weekend) of the NFL playoffs the last five years and where those teams found their quarterbacks:
2014: Five former first-round picks, one third-rounder, one sixth-rounder, one undrafted
2013: Four first-rounders, two early second-rounders, one third-rounder, one sixth-rounder
2012: Four first-rounders, one second-rounder, two third-rounders, one sixth-rounder
2011: Five first-rounders, one second-rounder, one third-rounder, one sixth-rounder
2010: Six first-rounders, two sixth-rounders
The Browns aren't the only team to miss. Panthers got Cam Newton at No. 1 overall in 2011 a year after drafting Jimmy Clausen at No. 48. The Eagles ended up with Vick because they'd drafted Kevin Kolb at No. 36, and Foles got his chance only after Vick was ineffective in 2013. The Broncos won a playoff game with first-round pick Tim Tebow and unloaded him a few months later, and that worked out. Taking Josh Freeman at No. 17 in 2009 led Tampa Bay on a long path to having the No. 1 pick in this draft.
The success of Brady, Romo and Wilson shows that quarterbacks can be found later. But the numbers say most of the good ones are drafted high and home grown.
