When we see the strike zone represented on television, we see a two-dimensional representation, from the pitcher's perspective, something like ... what? More than 99 percent of the time, probably? With the other 0.X percent either a two-dimensional representation from above or, very rarely, a look at the whole strike zone ... which is A FIVE-SIDED VOLUME.
I thought everybody knew that, but one of the takeaways from this fascinating article by Eric Lang is that some people have believed the strike zone is essentially two-dimensional. Well, Lang believed it anyway: "It did come as a surprise to me to learn that that strike zone covers the entire plate and forms a pentagonal volume."
At first glance, one might have a hard time taking seriously the work of someone who was so utterly ignorant of such a fundamental part of baseball. But hey, out of the mouths of babes and all that. When we think we know everything, we stop thinking, etc.
Upon second glance, one might be shocked upon learning that while umpires correctly call pitches that cross the front of the strike zone 82 percent of the time, they MISS 68 percent of the pitches that don't cross the front of the strike zone, but do catch some of the zone beyond the front.
Sixty-two percent seems like a lot!
I mean, it is a lot.
Here's the good news, though: We're talking about a relatively small number of pitches here, which drops the "correctly called strike percentage" by just one or two percent.
And wait! There's more good news! If the umpires were right about those "back-door strikes" 82 percent of the time rather than only 32 percent, professional baseball would be even more friendly to the pitchers, and there would be more strikeouts and less scoring.
Which is to say, be careful what you wish for. The automated strike zone's great in principle, but if you want to see the Law of Unintended Consequences in action, here's a tremendous chance. Because if you automate the strike zone without doing anything else, you'll have a lot more strikes. And then it'll be 1968 all over again.
