With April nearly in the books, it’s tempting to start declaring situations dire for certain teams and major victories for others. As we discussed last week, it’s still early for such proclamations but we do have a better sense of the playoff picture and how things are likely to shake out. We know that Royals fans feel on top of the world following their strong open to the season, and that Mets fans are in a state of disbelief as they have already tallied 14 wins, and have notched 9 of those without David Wright. The math reflects both clubs significant upward trend, as the Royals are edging in on top-10 status and the Mets nearly cracking the top five.
The Struggling Nats
It’s no secret that the 7-12 Nationals are struggling, perhaps under the weight of great expectations. It should be noted though, that while the Mets have surpassed the Nationals in overall playoff percentage, both teams are projected to win 87 games, based on 50,000 simulated seasons. It’s easy to cite the impending return of Anthony Rendon for some of that optimism, but the Mets will get David Wright back too, and those can reasonably be viewed as comparable additions. The math still sees the Nationals as the better team from this point forward - and they’ll have to be to make up the seven-game deficit they’ve made for themselves.
The Perplexing Marlins
Tabbed by many as a sleeper team and World Series contender, the Marlins came out of the gates flat and lost Henderson Alvarez and Christian Yelich along the way. They finished this week off with a sweep of the aforementioned Nationals though, and with a +7 run differential, are playing better than their 8-11 record would indicate. Dee Gordon has been as good as hoped for (ignore the six caught stealing attempts) and Dan Haren is anchoring a young and talented (but struggling) pitching staff. He’s also excellent on twitter. While the hype may have been too much heading into the season, it’s fair to say that any news of their death was greatly exaggerated.
The Mustachioed Men of New York
The Mets are generating all the headlines as always, but the Yankees have been doing something right too. They’re 11-8, and tied for the division lead in the AL East, and they’re already sporting a +21 run differential thanks to a dynamic offense that’s scored 99 runs already (third most in baseball, and coincidentally, third most in the AL East). Their pitching is surviving more than thriving, and the health of Masahiro Tanaka will likely be an open question throughout the rest of the season. The biggest problem facing the Yankees is how well they’re going to age. Can Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira sustain this pace given how much time they’ve missed? Is there enough rotation depth to sustain the inevitable missed time by Sabathia? Can Michael Pineda avoid dipping his entire body in pine tar? These are the questions the Yankees face, and they’ll likely loom all season, as even one of these players missing time drastically impacts the entire team.
