If you’re in a keeper league, you probably need to draft some prospects for the future.
This is one of my favorite aspects of fantasy baseball, as it gives each of us a chance to be the guy who drafts a future superstar when he’s just a youngster. If it pays off, you watch the player like a proud papa, as if you discovered him yourself.
Most of the 16 players listed below will not help you in 2011; they’re further away from the majors than that. Because of that, my top rookies won’t appear on this list.
If you’d like to learn about more of baseball’s top prospects, check out Jim Bowden’s Top 50 prospects list.
Please note that players are listed in order of their expected impact, and pitching prospects are always less reliable than their hitting counterparts because of injury risks.
Hitters
1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Trout ranks either first or second on most prospect boards after batting .341 with 10 homers, 106 runs, 56 stolen bases and a .918 OPS across two levels of A ball at age 18. Trout already has an advanced approach at the plate; his power is expected to develop; and everyone who sees him raves about his makeup. When drafting long-term fantasy prospects, Trout should be your top target.
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington
Harper was last year’s top overall draft pick, and even though he was a catcher in high school and junior college, he’s been moved to the outfield already. Harper impressed scouts with his big-time power at the Arizona Fall League, just a few weeks after his 18th birthday. He’s Bowden’s top prospect, and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote recently that Harper “has the potential to be a historic talent.” What’s not to like?
3. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City
Hosmer batted .338 with 20 home runs and a .977 OPS at A ball and Double A last season. At age 21, he’ll be part of a Double-A lineup that includes third baseman Mike Moustakas and catcher/outfielder Wil Myers (see No. 4 hitter), but Hosmer might be the best hitter of the bunch. Hosmer had 59 strikeouts and 66 walks in 586 plate appearances last season – that’s very good. He might bump Billy Butler to DH as soon as next season.
4. Wil Myers, C/OF, Kansas City
Myers might be headed to the outfield soon because his catching skills aren’t very good, but we’re interested in his bat. He hit .315 with 14 home runs and a .934 OPS between Single A and Double A last season, and his 85 walks suggest a very disciplined approach. The 20-year-old Myers projects as a high-average guy with good power, but might be a better real player than fantasy player. If he hits as well as people think he will, that’ll still be OK.
5. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota
:Five tools" is the phrase you hear a lot about the switch-hitting Hicks, who had eight homers, 21 stolen bases and an .829 OPS in Single A. His power is expected to improve, and his combination of speed and plate discipline (88 walks last season) could make him a tremendous leadoff hitter.
6. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland
Chisenhall batted .278 with 17 home runs and an .801 OPS at Double A last season. He might be the player on this list least likely to develop into a star, but he should be a pretty good player. He could arrive in Cleveland during the second half of this season if things go well in the minors.
7. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Toronto
The Jays acquired the 21-year-old Lawrie from the Brewers in exchange for Shaun Marcum, and he’s their best minor-league hitting prospect. Lawrie hit eight homers and stole 30 bases at Double A, and his total of 60 extra-base hits suggests that more power is coming. Lawrie might move to the outfield soon, but his power-speed combo should still make him a good fantasy player. He’d be more valuable as a second baseman, though.
8. Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore
Machado won’t turn 19 until July, but Bowden has him among his top 10 prospects, and that’s high praise. He doesn’t have much of a professional resume after only nine games in a couple of rookie leagues last season, but he projects as a good hitter with solid power at a premium fantasy position.
Pitchers
1. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta
Teheran made it all the way to Double A at age 19 after dominating batters (2.02 ERA) at the two levels below that. He throws hard, and projects as a future ace. If Teheran pitches well at Double A this season, he could come quickly.
2. Martin Perez, SP, Texas
The southpaw posted a horrendous 5.96 ERA in a full season at Double A at age 19. While Perez’s 101 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings were terrific, 50 walks and some bad BABIP luck didn’t help him at all. Scouts don’t seem bothered by Perez’s 2010 performance. He’s still ranked as a top-25 prospect across the board because of his fantastic stuff.
3. Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore
This hard-throwing, sinkerballing lefty posted a 2.70 ERA between Double A and Triple A last season. Britton isn’t a big strikeout guy, but his tremendous ability to keep the ball on the ground has some people rating him as a top-15 prospect. Britton could pitch his way into the Orioles’ shaky rotation later this season.
4. Jarrod Parker, SP, Arizona
Parker missed all of 2010 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but most prospect gurus are bullish about his chances to rebound. Parker’ stuff has never been questioned; at age 20, he whiffed nearly a batter per inning at Double A in 2009. A strong start in 2011 will re-establish Parker as a top-notch prospect.
5. Manny Banuelos, SP, New York Yankees
Banuelos is a little (5-foot-10, 155 pounds) lefty who mowed down Single A hitters (had a 2.23 ERA and 62 Ks in 44 1/3 IP) before reaching Double A at age 19. Now the Yankees’ top pitching prospect, Banuelos reportedly has excellent command, and could be in the team’s troublesome rotation by next season if he isn’t traded for an established starter first.
6. Mike Montgomery, SP, Kansas City
This 21-year-old lefty was terrific at two levels of Single A before pitching just OK at Double A. But arm soreness probably affected that performance while causing him to miss some time as well. While you always need to worry about a pitcher with arm issues, Montgomery has good stuff along with some “he knows how to pitch” buzz, and could be in the Royals’ rotation by next season.
7. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay
Had 208 strikeouts in 144 2/3 innings, and recorded a dozen double-digit strikeout games? Holy $#@! Moore throws in the mid-90s with a pretty good curveball, and his control improved quite a bit over the second half of last season. As Bowden suggests, if Moore can refine his command, he could be a good one.
8. Tyler Matzek, SP, Colorado
Matzek’s first professional season at age 19 was a mixed bag. He posted a 2.92 ERA at Class A Asheville, but had 88 strikeouts along with 62 walks in 89 1/3 innings. Scouts love Matzek, whose fastball reached the mid-90s, but he’s still a long way from the majors.
