Who’s the next big thing?
Below are a dozen players you’ve heard of who may be ready to take the next step toward fantasy stardom. Get on their bandwagons now!
Catcher
Carlos Santana, Cleveland
For the umpteenth time this spring, I ask you this: Why is Buster Posey better than Santana? The answer is that he’s not – he just has a shiny World Series ring that makes him sound better. At age 25, Santana has a more mature plate approach than most veterans, and hit 19 homers with 27 doubles in just 346 at bats between Triple A and the majors last season. As long as his knee is healthy – and it appears to be since the Indians are letting him begin spring training with no restrictions – Santana is about to become a star.
First base
Billy Butler, Kansas City
Butler will turn 25 in April, and since he’s hit 36 home runs with 96 doubles over the last two seasons, everyone keeps waiting for his breakout. He’s not going to hit 30 homers soon, but could have a mini-breakout – think .310 with 22-25 homers and 100 RBI. You’d take that from a borderline standard-league starter, right?
Second base
Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay
Rodriguez will be fighting for playing time in Tampa Bay, but since there aren’t any sacred cows on that squad, he’ll play if he hits. Rodriguez showed decent power and speed last season, with nine home runs and 13 stolen bases in just 343 at bats. Rodriguez hit 73 homers between the minors and the majors from 2007-09, and could emerge as a fantasy middle-infield force as soon as this season. As a bonus, he also qualifies in the outfield.
Third base
Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh
Alvarez is one of baseball’s better power prospects, and in the wasteland of fantasy third basemen, he’s a top-10 player. He has 56 homers in two seasons as a professional, and didn’t show any signs of being overmatched in 95 games with the Bucs last season. Sure, he struck out a lot, but he did that in the minors as well. Don’t be surprised if Alvarez slugs 30 homers for the Pirates this season.
Shortstop
Starlin Castro, Chicago
I’m not a huge Castro fan, but I appear to be in the minority, and I didn’t really like any of the other shortstops in this space. Castro won’t flash much power yet, but he has enough speed to steal 20 bases, and his .300 batting average in 2010 probably wasn’t a fluke. Castro, 21, isn’t perfect, but he can be a solid fantasy middle infield option for standard leaguers. I’ve got him ranked 17th at shortstop, but that might be a little harsh.
Outfield
Justin Upton, Arizona
Yes, I said this about Upton last year. He was going to go 30-30, become a superstar, blah, blah, blah. Upton’s big-time talent is still there, and we have reason to believe his shoulder issues hampered his hitting in 2010, especially late in the season. You want to flinch, give up and jump off the ship? Go ahead. Upton is seventh in my outfielder rankings, and a top-25 player overall. I’m doubling down.
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati
Let’s not forget that the 24-year-old Bruce was regarded as baseball’s top prospect by some just a few years ago, and he has an .801 OPS in 1,267 major-league at bats already. His walk rate improved last season; he got better against southpaws; and his second half was tremendous (hit 15 homers after August 1). Bruce will hit 30 home runs this season. He might hit 35. He could hit 40.
Mike Stanton, Florida
Is it too early to tab the 21-year-old Stanton as a breakthrough player? Not after he swatted 22 homers in 359 at bats as a rookie. Stanton whiffs quite a bit, so his batting average should worry you. However, his power is awesome. He’ll hit 30 homers without breaking a sweat. Someday, he’ll hit 50.
Starting pitcher
Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers
It seems like Billingsley has had an up-and-down career, with ERAs of 3.14, 4.03 and 3.57 over the last three seasons. You know he’s only age 26, right? Billingsley consistently whiffs more than eight batters per nine innings, and he posted career-best rates in walks and ground balls last year. Signs point to a step forward, and he could be a terrific SP2 in standard leagues.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto
After three years of getting jerked around by the Mariners, Morrow settled into a starting role for the Jays in 2010, and showed off his electric stuff by striking out 178 batters in 146 1/3 innings. Morrow’s .349 BABIP suggests that his 4.49 ERA was inflated by bad luck, and his control – while not yet good – was easily the best of his young career. Morrow has the tools to dominate at times, and the more consistent he gets, the more often the big starts will come. Morrow was born three days before Billingsley, and while he doesn’t have the same track record, he probably has more upside.
Relief pitcher
Chris Perez, Cleveland
Perez stepped in for an injured Kerry Wood last season, taking over the Tribe’s closer role a few months earlier than planned. The fireballer struggled with his control during a shaky July, but closed out the campaign with 24 strikeouts against just six walks in 21 2/3 innings after August 1. Perez’s 1.71 ERA wasn’t quite as good as it looked because of a lucky .222 BABI. But he’s clearly the man in Cleveland, and should save 30-plus games.
John Axford, Milwaukee
Exhibit X of the adage, “Closers are made, not born.” Axford has always thrown hard and struck out a lot of batters, but nobody foresaw him jumping in and saving 24 games in relief of Trevor Hoffman after starting the season at Double A. This year, the job is his – though the ageless Takashi Saito looms as a “break glass in case of emergency” replacement – and unless his walk rate goes through the roof, he should save plenty of games for the all-in Brew Crew. Axford is 15th in the initial reliever rankings.
