Tip Sheet: MLS Cup berths hang in the balance as conference finals conclude
Few certainties exist on the eve of the second leg of the conference championships. The opening salvos in Carson and Harrison offered grounding for the toil ahead this weekend, but they did not dictate the outcomes. It is down to these decisive matches to determine the identity of the MLS Cup participants.
LA Galaxy and New England enter this weekend with modest advantages in their quests. Jermaine Jones' late winner at Red Bull Arena provided the Revs' with a critical 2-1 victory and supplied a precious second away goal to rely upon in Saturday's second leg. Marcelo Sarvas' second-half strike at StubHub Center did not provide that sort of comfort, but the important goal -- plus the benefit of keeping Sounders FC off the board -- provides the Galaxy with a foothold ahead of the trek to CenturyLink Field on Sunday.
Most of the intrigue falls squarely upon that return leg in Seattle. The encounter provides a chance for Sounders FC to overcome its playoff hex and secure a place in MLS Cup for the first time. It will not prove an easy task against a defiant and organized Galaxy side with plenty of experience at this stage. The fine margins between the sides ensures yet another tight and tense affair.
Seattle will hope to have Osvaldo Alonso (hamstring) and Lamar Neagle (personal matter) back in the fold to bolster its efforts. The onus falls squarely upon Sounders FC to bolster its flagging attack (zero goals from the run of play in the postseason) and devise a viable way through the Galaxy defense without sacrificing solidity.
The task is a bit more straightforward for the Galaxy after the first-leg victory. A shutout will see the visitors through to MLS Cup. The efforts on the day -- including the inevitable push to procure an away goal with a well-timed counter -- revolve around the need to manage the game. It is an assignment firmly within the Galaxy's capability, but the margin for error is thin despite the victory in Carson last weekend.
New England returns to Gillette Stadium on Saturday with more of a cushion. New York must score twice without Golden Boot winner Bradley Wright-Phillips to retain any chance of securing a place in MLS Cup. Revolution coach Jay Heaps preached the need for balance ahead of the first leg in Harrison. The same fundamental tenet applies here to frustrate the Red Bulls without sacrificing the opportunity break quickly and indulge their enterprising tendencies.
Red Bulls coach Mike Petke faces a more complex brief with a deficit to close and Wright-Phillips ruled out. Tim Cahill presents a wonderful option to fill the void, but he requires a different sort of service to make the best use of his aerial prowess. The natural shift from slotting through the line to swinging crosses into the penalty area requires a modest shift, but it does pose a more diverse threat with the fullbacks pushing high. The need to stretch the field horizontally will create additional pressure on the fullbacks to overlap intelligently without leaving the back door open for the Revs to counter.
The back and forth in Foxborough and Seattle will ultimately provide clarity by the end of Sunday night. There are complications ahead over the coming days, but the destination remains fixed. It is now down to the four remaining sides to figure out a way to book their places and chart a course through to MLS Cup next weekend.
Five Points â Conference championship, second leg
1. How will yellow card amnesty impact the men in the middle?: There are no suspensions looming for caution accumulation with MLS Cup ahead. It is a scenario where Jair Marrufo (Seattle-LA Galaxy) and Baldomero Toledo (New England-New York) can now wield yellow cards more liberally without triggering a suspension. Whether they deploy their bookings more proactively will hinge on both personal preference (Marrufo showed a league-low 1.6 yellow cards per appearance, according to PRO statistics) and the tone of the matches.
2. One last stand for Thierry Henry...and it comes on turf?: Henry will play at Gillette Stadium for the first time as a Red Bull. It is likely his last chance to propel New York to MLS Cup. It might even prove his last game as a professional. The magnitude of the occasion injects some uncertainty into it. If Henry gears up and seizes control of the proceedings, then the Red Bulls could find themselves in unexpectedly good stead.
3. Expect the Revs to heed their semifinal lessons: The second leg of the series against Columbus fell along the same broad lines, though the advantage isn't quite as commanding this time. New England hesitated in the early stages of that game and watched the Crew produce a chance or two in the process. It did not hurt them on that particular day, but the lesson will stick nevertheless. This group remains a team predicated on attacking at the right moments. That identity must point the way forward toward a first MLS Cup berth since 2007.
4. Seattle needs the stars to shine: Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins have played largely peripheral roles in this playoff run to date. The status quo cannot continue if Sounders FC plan to reverse the deficit. There is a need for more variety in the service to the front two, but Dempsey and Martins must figure out a way through even if those lines remain intermittent. The difference between one more match at CenturyLink and one more winter lamenting a postseason exit likely falls at their feet.
5. Galaxy trust in their core to carry the day: This difficult trek to Seattle stands between the Galaxy and another MLS Cup at StubHub Center. This seasoned side grasps the key points (claim the advantage in central midfield with Juninho and Marcelo Sarvas, frustrate the efforts to play directly to Dempsey and Martins, push the play out wide and use the resulting space wisely on the counter) and understands how to make the best use of them. It is simply a matter of this team and these players meeting the standards and producing a moment or two of magic one more time to deliver once again.
