Tip Sheet: Can Columbus and D.C. United upset the odds to advance?
History provides awkward context in the MLS postseason. MLS has made a habit of altering its playoff format over the years to accommodate external and internal needs and spark interest in the matches. The resulting chaos leaves a patchwork of one-off, two-legged and three-legged ties with an array of decisive factors and tie breakers.
There are no easy ways to translate those series to the current format, no straightforward applications to two-legged ties with away goals. The structures dictate tactics and influence how teams approach their duties. The comparisons do not offer particularly valuable information or track neatly. It is as much about focusing on quasi-relevant strands as it is finding direct correlations.
Every possible arrangement of the data highlights the difficulty of the task ahead for Columbus and D.C. United this weekend. Both teams face two-goal deficits on aggregate. Columbus needs to score at least three times to oust New England. United must hold New York scoreless and strike twice to fulfill its easiest path to the Eastern Conference final.
The stats suggest an uphill climb, though the added specter of away goals certainly changes the calculus now. Twelve teams have found themselves with two-goal deficits from the first leg since MLS introduced the two-legged, aggregate system back in 2003. Only two of them -- San Jose in 2003, Kansas City in 2004 -- managed to find a way through. And the Earthquakes needed the miracle of all miracles to scrape past the Galaxy in that fantastic 5-2 second-leg victory on home soil.
Expanding the scope injects a bit more variance without providing much more encouragement. Manchester United pulled back the two-goal deficit facing D.C. United against Olympiakos in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 earlier this year to claim a 3-2 victory on aggregate. Other teams have fallen short in similar situations, though. Zenit St. Petersburg somehow incurred the same 4-2 home defeat suffered by the Crew last weekend in their Champions League round of 16 tie against Borussia Dortmund, but the Russian side exited despite winning the second leg 2-1 at Signal Iduna Park.
All of those statistics -- and really, it is just a small sample with minimal value -- supply a glimpse of the magnitude without preventing the affected teams from contradicting them. They face difficult, but not impossible, assignments this weekend. They boast the quality to overturn their deficits. The probabilities remain firmly against their chances to progress, but there is always a sliver of hope on the day.
It remains to be seen whether D.C. United can extricate itself from its hole or Columbus can emerge from its historic deficit (no MLS team had lost a first leg by a 4-2 scoreline on home soil, though Portland managed the feat at Rio Tinto Stadium last year) with a stunning performance at Gillette Stadium. At the very least, the predicaments allow both teams to offer more direct and meaningful context as the postseason continues.
Five Points – Conference semifinals, second leg
1. D.C. United must devise a solution in midfield to claw out of its hole…: United struggled to cope with three-versus-two in the center of park in Harrison last weekend. Ben Olsen must figure out a way to provide Davy Arnaud and Perry Kitchen with more support in order to buttress the overall shape and prevent the Red Bulls from asserting their dominion over the game.
2. …while the Crew need to find the right balance: Columbus succumbed on home soil because it lacked the necessary balance to cope with New England on the break. The extent of the deficit will require the visitors to push numbers forward. All of those efforts will lead to further ruin if the Crew cannot manage to blunt the Revs on the break and keep the shape relatively tight from back to front.
3. Is Landon Donovan preparing for his last game?: Donovan and the Galaxy face a tricky test at StubHub Center on Sunday night. Real Salt Lake boasts the defensive core and the tidy work in transition to present a genuine threat. The home side’s inability to snatch a goal at Rio Tinto Stadium last weekend creates a fine line to walk. It is on the Galaxy to concoct a way through RSL’s firm defensive base without leaving the rearguard exposed to a potentially fatal away goal.
4. How will FC Dallas adjust to the return of Mauro Diaz?: FCD isn’t going to pull a Vancouver and shut up shop successfully at CenturyLink Field. It’s not really what FCD does well. FCD will need to figure out a way to rely on Diaz to dictate the flow of the game without veering the entire team away from its desire to interrupt Sounders FC in the middle of the park. Diaz isn’t particularly committed to his defensive duties. And that dynamic means Oscar Pareja needs to adjust accordingly with his team shape to accommodate his return.
5. Philadelphia makes wise choice by staying the course with Curtin: The results during the second half of the season vindicated the Union’s decision to appoint Jim Curtin as head coach on Friday. It is now on the club to expend the resources necessary to strengthen the squad (a new striker appears top of the pecking order, while Maurice Edu’s future is on the priority list, too) and sustain a playoff push next season.
