Three X-factors for Braves at the plate this season

Three X-factors for Braves at the plate this season

Published Apr. 6, 2015 9:52 a.m. ET
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What's missing from the Braves' lineup of a year ago has been discussed ad nauseam, but with Opening Day upon us, it bears further adding to that nauseam.

Trades and decisions not to bring players back have Atlanta down 89 home runs, 337 RBI and 79 stolen bases from 2014.

Granted, that offense ranked 29th in the majors with 3.5 runs per game, but that also boils down to the Braves needing to replace a major portion of last year's production, even if it was scant.

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While multi-time All-Star Freddie Freeman returns, he's arguably the only sure thing in the lineup, and in order for Atlanta to rise above the projections, it's going to need these X-factors to deliver.

Without Evan Gattis and Justin Upton to hit behind Freeman, there's a very real possibility that the first baseman could make a run at the Atlanta franchise record of 127 walks set by Jim Wynn in 1976.

That is unless Johnson looks more like he did in 2013.

The third baseman is among the most logical choices to follow Freeman in the lineup. But after finishing second in the National League with a .321 average, Johnson took a big step back last year. He dipped to .263 at the plate and had the lowest on-base percentage in the NL among qualified players at his position, all while striking out a career high 159 times.

Johnson was embroiled in trade rumors and there's been speculation that he could be part of a platoon situation should things not pick up in 2015.

The addition of new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer -- and an admitted drive to get back to basics -- may be just what he needs. Johnson swung at bad pitches last season, with the third-highest O-Swing (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) in the majors at 44.3. Pablo Sandoval (48.1) and Salvador Perez (46.2) were the only players with worse rates.

Seitzer preaches contact, something Johnson, who has a career average 25.3 percent line drive percentage and a BABIP of .394 in '13 and .345 in '14, can supply -- and if so, Freeman may be the biggest beneficiary.

A non-roster invitee this spring, he became an injury replacement with Melvin Upton Jr.'s foot issue, Young should see even more time in this lineup after Upton was dealt to the Padres along with Craig Kimbrel on Sunday (even if he's part of a platoon in center or left field). But Young's skill set could make him a more dangerous weapon than Upton ever was in his two years in a Braves uniform.

Manager Fredi Gonzalez said Young -- who has a career .321 on-base percentage in 1,340 plate appearances at leadoff -- brings a dimension to that spot the Braves have missed following Michael Bourn's departure. Since the center fielder left in 2012, Atlanta ranks 27th in the majors and next-to-last in the National League with a .309 OBP by its No. 1 hitter.

Young's numbers the past two years haven't been much better than the Braves' (.310 in '13 and .299 last season), but he was at .377 in '12, and if he can get closer to the MLB average of .330, it's an upgrade.

Then there's what Young is capable of doing on the base paths with an 80 percent career steals rate on 171 attempts, including an NL-best 46 in '13. In a season in which he's had at least 198 at-bats, Young has never swiped less than 27 and is coming off his second straight year with at least 30. The Braves haven't had anyone post at least 30 or more since Bourn left.

Since 1994, when Javy Lopez was a rookie, Braves catchers have clobbered a collective 518 home runs, the most in the majors.

No one is expecting Bethancourt, who has yet to connect on a 118 major league plate appearances, to become the next piece in a lineage of long-ball hitters Lopez, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis. But if the 23-year-old can show growth at the plate -- which within the organization is viewed as a bonus given the emphasis on Bethancourt's learning to manage the pitching staff as a first-time every day catcher -- it could be a much-needed boost to the bottom part of the lineup.

After posting a minus-6.6 offensive WAR last season, Bethancourt hit .306/.297/.556 in the Grapefruit League and hit his first home run outside of the minors since 2012.

Those spring numbers can be viewed as meaningless, but here's a nugget to hold on to in Bethancourt's development: he had seven extra-base hits in 36 at-bats. After a September call-up last season, he managed just three in 31 games.

Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney

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