Six weeks into the college football season, there are 17 unbeaten teams and two one-loss teams whose national title dreams aren't dead.
So, how does Ohio State find its way to be different from the 18 others who aren't going to play in Pasadena in the BCS National Championship Game?
They're going to need to keep winning - and get lots of help. In the event that a help comes, it's still no guarantee that a 13-0 Ohio State team would finish in the top two in the BCS standings.
What's below is a road map of sorts -- a jumbled one, built on the premise that the Buckeyes keep winning, win at Michigan and then win the Big Ten Championship Game to get to 13-0 -- on what late November and early December may look like as the current field of 19 contenders is whittled to a dozen (soon), then to five or six, then probably to three or four.
Right now, No. 1 Alabama, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 8 Louisville are the best bets to finish unscathed. Part of that is because over the next four weeks, No. 2 Oregon plays No. 5 Stanford, No. 4 Clemson plays No. 6 Florida State and No. 10 Oklahoma plays No. 15 Baylor. Somebody has to lose those games.
Not that it means much -- these games are played on TV, not on paper -- but Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Louisville and Baylor are going to be favored in every game they play the rest of the way. Clemson may or may not be favored against Florida State and in its regular-season finale vs. South Carolina. If there are multiple unbeatens, it doesn't bode well for Ohio State. Should Alabama and Oregon both finish 13-0, Ohio State will almost certainly be watching those two play in the BCS title game.
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As for the other remaining unbeatens, Houston has no chance to finish unbeaten. Even at 12-0 or 13-0, Fresno State and Northern Illinois couldn't reach the BCS National Championship Game.
Texas Tech plays Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks starting the last weekend of October, then gets Baylor in November. Nah, not happening.
UCLA still plays at Stanford and at Oregon. Even with some sort of series of lightning strikes that would allow the Bruins to win both of those games, they'd still likely have to defeat one of them again in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Michigan barely beat Akron and UConn but is 5-0 and has plenty of big games left. Obviously, Michigan being unbeaten would mean Ohio State isn't, which would make you stop reading the rest of this. And nobody wants that to happen.
Missouri is in the SEC, in case you'd forgotten, and this Missouri team is pretty darn good. But the Tigers play their next three games against Georgia, Florida and South Carolina and finish the year vs. Texas A&M, plus would have to beat Alabama or LSU in the slim chance this run would get Missouri all the way to the SEC Championship Game. Good luck.
The Miami Hurricanes are undefeated, too, but still face a road game at Florida State and even if they keep winning would likely face the Florida State-Clemson winner in the ACC title game. A 13-0 Miami team would have a case; it just doesn't seem likely that Miami will be 13-0.
There are two one-loss teams that still have a shot at winning the national title: No. 11 LSU and No. 7 Georgia. LSU would need to beat Alabama and Texas A&M and then win the SEC Championship Game and hope unbeaten teams fall in other conferences. Georgia would have to run the table from here, win the SEC Championship Game and hope Clemson loses to Florida State, among other favorable results.
If it's Alabama, LSU or Georgia, there's a real possibility that a one-loss SEC Champion would get in the Really Big Game over an unbeaten Ohio State or Louisville. Cry foul all you want, but know that it's real. Maybe even likely.
Strength of schedule and perception of schedule are going to be issues. Whether they'll be deciding factors, we don't yet know.
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There are three components to the BCS formula: The top 25 coaches poll (the one always used by this site), the Harris Interactive poll (people voting can be swayed by lopsided scores and public opinion) and the score derived from six different computer rankings. Each of the three carry equal weight in the end, when percentage totals are averaged and ranked to produce the actual BCS standings.
If that's hard to comprehend, know that each computer ranking provider accounts for schedule strength, won-loss record and home-and-away records within its formula. In each of the three rankings used, each team is assigned an inverse point total before the math is done, meaning No. 1 gets 25 points, No. 2 gets 24 and so on. Basically, you want your team to be as ranked as high as possible in every poll and for teams in front of it to lose.
If only it was that simple.
The really, really, really big games -- Round One -- are Oct. 19 when Clemson is at Florida State and on Nov. 7 when Baylor hosts Oklahoma and Oregon visits Stanford. If Florida State wins that Clemson game and Miami stays unbeaten, all eyes turn to Miami vs Florida State on November 2.
As long as Alabama and Oregon are winning, those Clemson-FSU and Baylor-Oklahoma matchups are probably going to be knockout games. By the time Ohio State has its next weekend off in four weeks, the field of potential contenders could be down to five or six. Louisville shouldn't lose, Oregon shouldn't lose, Baylor shouldn't lose and...every year at least two teams that shouldn't lose do end up losing. So, we'll see.
Baylor's non-conference schedule was as laughably bad as Ohio State's -- Buffalo was a common opponent; Wofford and Louisiana-Monroe were Baylor's other wins -- but if this Baylor team gets to 12-0, it will get there by defeating probably three ranked teams and, presumably, by scoring 70-plus points in a bunch of games. Style points matter, at least to an extent.
In the event Oklahoma gets through unscathed, the Sooners would have road wins at Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Baylor. It's tough to tell if an unbeaten Oklahoma would land ahead of an unbeaten Ohio State if there's one national title game spot available.
Louisville's overall strength of schedule should come up short of Ohio State's, but it's too early to know how later coaches polls and the Harris poll will view the Cardinals. And it's not like Alabama or Oregon played murderous non-conference schedules, but if those teams run the table they will have multiple wins against ranked teams and will not have relinquished their high spots in the coaches poll.
Six computer polls are used; four ultimately decide a team's computer rankings. Ohio State right now has a Sagarin rating of 15, a Massey rating of 8, a Colley Matrix rating of 8, an Anderson-Hester rating of 8, a Billinglsey rating of 4. The Wolfe rating begins in two weeks, and the highest and lowest computer rankings are dropped. With Iowa, Purdue and Illinois still on the schedule and Cal headed for two or three wins, it doesn't look good for the Buckeyes from a computer standpoint.
But it's early. For points of comparative reference, Sagarin currently has LSU fifth and Louisville 10th. In the Anderson-Hester ratings, Oklahoma is ffith but LSU is 15th and Louisville is 25th. In the Billingsley rankings, in which Ohio State currently ranks the highest among the relevant computer polls, the Buckeyes are a spot behind Oklahoma but three ahead of Oregon.
All Ohio State can do is win and watch. It seems, for now, that Buckeye fans should root for Stanford to beat Oregon -- and for Stanford to lose to UCLA or Notre Dame. Same in the Big 12, where Ohio State might need both Oklahoma and Baylor to lose eventually. Maybe the Buckeyes would like Florida State to beat Clemson and lose later (Miami, Florida and the ACC title game are still on deck). That doesn't take into account what might happen in the SEC, or that the Ohio Bobcats could go ahead and go all the way to 12-1 and give Louisville's computer numbers a huge boost.
It's not uncommon to have multiple legitimate contenders and hundreds of potential scenarios on the second week of October. It probably is uncommon to have at least five teams that will be favored in every game the rest of the way.
Enjoy the games in the meantime. November will be for big drama -- and calculators.
