Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com is reporting that the Marlins have offered Jose Fernandez a six-year contract extension somewhere near $40 million.
Fernandez is a Scott Boras client. Boras is notorious for taking his clients to free agency. Any extension for a pitcher of Fernandez's caliber would have to be close to market value. Six seasons for $40 million is not remotely close.
Fernandez had Tommy John surgery last May, his age 21 season, and is not expected back on the mound until the middle of next season. Although it was only eight starts into the season, Fernandez was on a torrid pace of 12.2 K/9. Clayton Kershaw led all MLB starters with a rate of 10.6. His 6.27 H/9 would have been second to only Johnny Cueto's 6.24.
Among all pitchers through their first 36 career starts since 1914, Fernandez has ranked historically well in at least a couple of measures:
| All-time rank | ||
| K/9 | 10.31 | 7th |
| ERA | 2.25 | 8th |
Of current pitchers, only Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Matt Harvey appear in the Top 10 in K/9. No active pitcher appears in the Top 10 for ERA. Fernandez's 2.25 mark is the lowest in 37 years since Mark "The Bird" Fidrych posted a 2.24 through his first 36 starts.
David Price is a decent comp for salary, but not perfect because he will have gone through the arbitration system a fourth and final time this year. Price made $4.3M, $10.1M and $14M in his first three arbitration years. He'll likely make $18-20M next year. Those were his age 26-29 seasons.Fernandez is not arbitration eligible until after next season.
Fernandez's arbitration years would be his age 23-25 seasons. Fair salaries going year to year would be $6M, $12M and $16M for a total of $34 million.
And those first two years of free agency that the Marlins are trying to buy? Fernandez's age 26 and 27 seasons? They're worth at least $25 million, but probably closer to $28 million.
Let's be conservative. In those six seasons, if he goes year to year, is healthy and is producing at close to what he has so far would be worth at least $80 million to Jose Fernandez.
This offer feels disingenuous because the dollars are just way too low. The Marlins have made a promise to Giancarlo Stanton that they'll be investing in this team. They struck out on free agent Adam LaRoche and have come in way low on Fernandez. Scott Boras knows better than to let his client take this deal, and I can't help wondering if Miami will be able to keep their promise to their star right fielder.
Historical rankings via STATS, LLC
