Just before the season's midpoint, chaos finally reared its beautiful
head -- and in all likelihood, it's far from
finished.
But the focus going forward isn't on
disorder, it's on clarity. The final months of 2013 are full of juicy
matchups that should define the course of the season — and five games in
particular should have the biggest influence on the path to the Rose
Bowl for the final BCS championship game.
Outside of
the conference championships, these are the most crucial games
remaining.
The biggest game in
ACC history? Hyperbole doesn't have a seat at this table. Not when you
consider that it's the league's fourth meeting of top 5 teams ever; not
when you considering the winner will solidify itself as a true threat to
end a 13-year national title drought that has hung over the conference;
and not when you consider that this one also serves as a Heisman Trophy
eliminator between QBs Tajh Boyd (Clemson) and Jameis Winston (Florida
State). After years of being largely irrelevant in the national title
conversation and in the Heisman race — which it hasn't won since 2000 —
the ACC has a true showcase game. No pressure,
guys.
Regardless of whether
the Cardinal can get through No. 9 UCLA on Saturday, this is the
matchup that looms largest on the Left Coast. Stanford has the recipe
for rattling the Ducks — which basically boils down to hitting them in
the mouth — but this Oregon squad seems different behind quarterback
Marcus Mariota. They're relentless and this is a clash of styles that,
should the Ducks dominate, will only whet appetites for a potential
national title clash with No. 1 Alabama. But the flip side is if
Stanford — which has dropped from fifth to 13th in the rankings — were
to win, the result would cost the Pac-12 its best chance of making the
BCS title game instead of being an affirmation of the conference's top
contender.
Has there been a bigger
surprise this season than Baylor? Unranked to start the season, the
Bears are making a climb reminiscent of Notre Dame's rise from outside
the Top 25 to the BCS title game. And they have a schedule that could
get them there with three straight ranked opponents in November. It's
the first of those teams, Oklahoma, that has the potential to answer any
doubts about the Bears, despite what the Sooners' showing in the
blowout loss to Texas may have revealed. Oklahoma remains the Big 12's
top defense (13th) and is 11th vs. the pass. On paper, it's the toughest
matchup QB Bryce Petty and that prolific Baylor offense will face
before the postseason.
An SEC title game
without the Crimson Tide? A BCS title game without the SEC? Unless
Alabama gets some help from the Pac-12 in stopping Oregon or the Big Ten
in stifling Ohio State, falling to one-loss LSU — which would then
control its own destiny in the SEC West — could potentially result in
the conference getting shut out of a shot at an eighth crystal football.
Tigers QB Zach Mettenberger could feast on the Tide's struggling
secondary with the receiving duo of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.
But this is no vintage Tigers D, and AJ McCarron can have his way with a
backfield that Georgia's Aaron Murray burned for 298 yards and four
TDs.
This one is dependent
on who emerges from Saturday's ACC Atlantic Division showdown. If it's
the Tigers, then the focus shifts to their regular-season finale against
the Gamecocks; if the Seminoles win, then circle their date with the
Gators in the Swamp. Either way, these games stand as the trump card for
their BCS title hopes, because if the Coastal Division doesn't come
through with a sexy opponent as far as the rankings are concerned, its
these matchups with highly ranked SEC schools that could push the ACC
front-runner over the edge.
A redux of last
season's epic SEC Championship Game clash of Georgia vs. Alabama seemed a
certainty. Now, No. 14 Missouri is suddenly in the driver's seat after
trimming the Bulldogs between the hedges (see what I did there?) —
though the Tigers' time atop the division may be short with QB James
Franklin out for the season with a separated
shoulder.
Could it be that the team in the best shape
in the division is one that just suffered its second loss of the
season?
No. 11 South Carolina, No. 22 Florida and the
aforementioned Bulldogs — who slipped to 15th — are all tied for
second. But it's the Gators, who dropped to 4-2 with a 17-6 loss to LSU,
that still have yet to face the Tigers and the two teams they're tied
with in the East standings.
Florida's third-ranked
defense, which has yet to allow a passing down touchdown this season,
has the capability to slow down Missouri (515.7 yards per game), Georgia
(517.3) and South Carolina (486.5). If its offense — which is averaging
336.5 yards since Tyler Murphy took over at QB — can do just enough
against Ds that are ranked 83rd (Missouri), 65th (Missouri) and 23rd
(South Carolina), it will be the Gators that earn a trip to
Atlanta.
Of course, with the Gamecocks yet to play
Missouri and the Florida game at home, they could well win the East. So,
too, could the Bulldogs if they can beat the Gators and then watch the
East's other contenders trade blows. Or the Tigers, who get both Florida
and South Carolina at their place.
However it plays
out, the division is assured of supplying more drama than it seemed it
would just a few days ago.
No matter what happens
the rest of the season, Mack Brown can simply bring up the Red River
Rivalry rout of then-No. 12 Oklahoma and silence his critics. It was the
Longhorns' third-largest win over a team ranked inside the top 15 as
they thumped the Sooners 36-20 and ended a three-game Oklahoma streak in
the matchup. It's still hard to imagine Texas winning the Big 12,
especially with a closing stretch of No. 21 Oklahoma State, No. 16 Texas
Tech and No. 12 Baylor .But the 'Horns are now 3-0 in league play,
which is stunning considering their 1-2
start.
Teddy Bridgewater
went for more than 300 yards passing for the fourth time this season,
and the Cardinals are now 6-0 by beating Rutgers. But he threw an
interception and fumbled on the last of two sacks. Plus, Louisville —
which came in averaging 44.4 points — scored just 24 on a Scarlet
Knights D that's given up plenty of points. Needing all the style points
they can get with that much-maligned schedule, the Cardinals did
themselves no favors.
The Gus Malzahn
reclamation project is operating faster than anyone could have
anticipated. On the heels of the Tigers' upset of then-No. 24 Ole Miss,
Auburn rolled to a school-record 712 yards of offense in crushing
Western Carolina. As a result, the team jumped into the 24th spot of the
AP Top 25, marking the first time War Eagle has been ranked since Nov.
6, 2011. It could be short-lived with the Tigers now facing No. 6 Texas
A&M, a double-digit favorite, in College Station. But at 5-1,
bowl eligibility is all but a certainty in Year One of the Malzahn
Era.
While No. 2 Oregon
stayed perfect in pulling past then-No. 16 Washington, the other assumed
member of the Pac-12's upper class couldn't follow suit. Utah racked up
410 yards on the Cardinal in dealing them a first loss, and that came
one week after the Huskies totaled 489 yards. For all the talent
Stanford has on defense — specifically future pros Ben Gardner, Ed
Reynolds and Shayne Skov — this is a group that has really underwhelmed,
ranking 48th in total D (379.7 ypg) and 36th in points allowed (22.2
per). It gets no easier for the Cardinal, with No. 9 UCLA up
next.
The offense remains
erratic, ranking 111th in the nation. But at this point we know exactly
who the Hokies are, and they're predicated by defense. That unit put on
another show, sacking Pitt's Tom Savage eight times — including three by
Dadi Nicolas, a defensive linemen, who was used as a linebacker — which
was the second-most ever under coach Frank Beamer. It's becoming pretty
clear that the Virginia Tech defense may just be that
good.
Devin
Gardner could only watch from the sideline as Penn State celebrated the
biggest win of the Bill O'Brien era, edging the previously 18th-ranked
Wolverines in four overtimes. But really, weren't the Wolverines living
on borrowed time since that win over Notre Dame on Sept. 7? They barely
beat MAC bottom dweller Akron and also barely beat AAC weakling UConn.
And Devin Gardner has been largely erratic, throwing seven interceptions
to six TDs the past four games.
The Wolverines' loss
is also a blow to their biggest rival. Before the loss in Happy Valley,
Michigan was the only ranked team remaining on No. 4 Ohio State's
schedule. That could severely hamper the Buckeyes' chances of getting
into the BCS title game if they have to match their slate — ranked 60th
in the
latest Sagarin Ratings — up against those of
potentially unbeaten SEC/ACC/Pac-12 champs for one of two spots in
Pasadena.
Army has been playing
since 1890 and produced three Heisman-winning backs, but none of them
ever did what Baggett did against Eastern Michigan. He ran for 304 yards
and four TDs, including a 96-yarder, becoming the first Black Knights
player to go for more than 300 yards, a span of 1,193 games. He broke
the team's all-time mark of 269 yards set by Michael Wallace in 1999 and
posted the highest single-game total of this season.
Newsome
had two pick-sixes in the WarHawks' win over Texas State, covering 71
and 75 yards and setting a Sun Belt record for return yards. He is just
the second player in the conference's history with two interceptions
returned for scores in a game, joining New Mexico State's Tony Lukins in
2001. Newsome had four tackles, including one for a loss.
Montgomery holds down this
spot for the second straight week after he ran a kickoff back 100 yards
for a score, totaling 160 yards in that department in the Cardinal's
stunning 27-21 loss to Utah. He had 296 yards in all with another 131
receiving and five rushing. The junior now ranks third in the nation,
averaging 196.5 all-purpose ypg.
Winston has yet to
have an off game, with the Seminoles' redshirt freshman averaging 323.2
yards passing and three TDs against FBS opponents. He's completing 76.1
percent of his passes in those games. But he has yet to see an
atmosphere like he'll encounter at Memorial Stadium on Saturday night
and has yet to face stakes like these as a college QB. Boyd has been
here before, and he's now thriving in big-game situations, totaling 616
yards and eight total TDs in his last two games vs. Top 25
squads.
The Pick: Clemson 38,
Florida State 30
While
the Cardinal are going to have to regroup in a hurry after their loss
to the Utes or potentially see their season take on a very different
tone — Saturday begins a three-game stretch of the Bruins, Oregon State
and No. 2 Oregon — this has statement potential for UCLA. The Bruins get
the Ducks next, setting up two games that could see them go from a nice
story to a BCS title game contender. Brett Hundley has the capabilities
to cause fits for a susceptible-looking Stanford defense that gave up
350 yards to Washington's Keith Price. But look for Reynolds and the
Cardinal secondary to do just enough to rectify things after an
unexpected wake-up call.
The Pick:
Stanford 48, UCLA 42
Franklin's gone and
his replacement, national high school passing yardage king Maty Mauk,
didn't look bad in a small sample against Georgia (3 of 3 for 23 yards).
The redshirt freshman wasn't asked to do much, though that's about to
change with the Tigers' East title hopes riding on his shoulders as they
face FBS' third-ranked pass defense in the Gators (152 ypg). It's not a
matchup that elicits much confidence. The Tigers have enough depth in
the running game to make things interesting, but here's expecting we see
further upheaval in the East.
The
Pick: Florida 27, Missouri 24
Last
Week: 2-1
Overall: 15-3
