Projected lineup
1. SS: Jose Reyes
2. CF: Angel Pagan
3. 3B: David Wright
4. RF: Carlos Beltran
5. LF: Jason Bay
6. 1B: Ike Davis
7. C: Josh Thole/Ronny Paulino
8. 2B: Luis Hernandez
Projected rotation
1. SP: Mike Pelfrey
2. SP: Jonathon Niese
3. SP: R.A. Dickey
4. SP: Chris Young
5. SP: Chris Capuano
CL: Francisco Rodriguez
Five tips
• The lineup’s first five hitters look really good – as long as they stay healthy. Beltran has only played a combined 145 games over the last two seasons. Bay missed the second half of 2010 with concussion-related symptoms. Reyes missed about 30 games with assorted injuries last year after a mostly inactive 2009. Beltran is the biggest wildcard. He looks like he can still hit, but his days as a big-time basestealer are probably gone because of knee problems.
• Pagan was a revelation last year, hitting 11 homers and stealing 37 bases in his first chance at full-time duty. There’s no reason why he can’t repeat that performance.
• Davis became an instant fan favorite after an early-season callup. There’s a lot to like about him. He showed good patience and solid power as a rookie. However, he does strike out quite a bit, which doesn’t bode well for his batting average. Davis is 26th in my first-base rankings, but that might be too pessimistic. Look for 20-25 homers.
• Johan Santana had shoulder surgery last September, and should rejoin the rotation at some point. Most people are saying that’ll happen at the All-Star break. But since he just started throwing, the return date is very much up in the air. If you’re thinking about a draft-and-stash strategy for Santana, keep in mind that we have no idea how effective he’ll be when he does return.
• Niese is the highest-ranked Mets’ starter at No. 54. I’m not a Pelfrey fan. His low-strikeout rate makes him too unpredictable. His ERAs over the last three seasons are 3.72, 5.03 and 3.66, and his WHIP over that span is 1.41. Ugh.
Plus:
• Odd man out: The losers of the catcher and second base battles, though catcher is more likely to be a platoon than anything else. Second baseman Luis Castillo is on thin ice with this team and seems to have lost his starting job to Hernandez.
• Top prospects: Right-handed pitcher Jenrry Mejia is expected to begin the season at Triple A, but could be called up to join the rotation later in the season. Second baseman/shortstop Ruben Tejada could play himself into the second-base mix. But even though he’s just 21, there’s some question as to whether he’ll ever hit much.
Pitcher Dillon Gee could be a rotation option if someone else is hurt,. Outfielder Fernando Martinez – who used to be regarded as a big-time prospect – could get the call if Beltran becomes hurt again. Martinez is only 22, and even though he’s got some flaws, he could still be a good player.
• Backup closer: The early guess is D.J. Carrasco, but that’s really a guess. The new regime in Flushing probably needs to get to know its players before we know who is K-Rod’s Plan B. So don’t handcuff anyone on draft day.
