“Hot route!”
It’s the most important line in “Wedding Crashers” to me. Well, it’s the most important line of the film for the purpose of my professional endeavors.
The litany of 300-yard passing games (23 already), injuries and high-flying, wide-open offenses have put receivers and tight ends front and center this year. Sure, we still love the development of a running play and tailbacks breaking ankles in the open field, but highlight reels favor the aerial assault.
Eleven tight ends averaged at least 50 receiving yards through two weeks of play. Seventeen tight ends have scored at least one touchdown.
Who emerges in a very interesting and challenging set of games?
Which kickers and defenses might bring you love from the wire?
Let’s break it down.
(Exclude: Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham)
Heroes
Fred Davis, WAS at Dallas: I’m staying with the hot hand and wearing the sandwich board in support of Rex Grossman for the Monday night tilt. Therefore, I’m all in on Davis to generate another big game as well. Davis has logged 11 receptions on 13 targets for 191 yards and a touchdown. Davis’ strong start continues in Week 3 against the injury-depleted Dallas secondary.
Tony Gonzalez, ATL at Tampa Bay: Rumors of Gonzalez’s demise were greatly exaggerated. On a night when Roddy White and Julio Jones were held in check and Matt Ryan played inconsistently, Gonzalez dominated the Philadelphia defense. He’s still crafty and knows how to create space (12 receptions for 155 yards through two weeks).
I don’t anticipate a huge day from Ryan. He’s not performed terribly well against the Buccaneers in his career. However, Gonzalez still finds his space and posts a strong day.
Dustin Keller, NYJ at Oakland: I fear that Mark Sanchez’s promise to do a “make good” with Plaxico Burress takes those all-important red zone looks away from Keller. Still, I love that Keller has been targeted 14 times through two weeks and is at least a top-2 red zone option.
You saw how the Bills were able to make plays in the red zone last week. Sanchez tries to replicate Fitzpatrick’s effort on the road.
Owen Daniels, HOU at New Orleans: Daniels isn’t quite back to his old dominant self, but he’s currently No. 2 in the pecking order (third, if you count handoffs to Ben Tate) behind Andre Johnson. He’s only been targeted seven times thus far, but the Texans will need him to keep pace with Drew Brees on the road. Joel Dreessen can stay in and try to slow down Gregg Williams’ blitzes while Daniels runs his routes.
Jermaine Gresham, CIN vs. San Francisco: Gresham is a late addition to the “Heroes” list. Andy Dalton has played well through two weeks, and the Bengals lost Jordan Shipley and, presumably, Jerome Simpson following a strange week. Look for Gresham to be more active alongside A.J. Green this week following a smallish Week 2.
Ninja Alerts
Greg Olsen, CAR vs. Jacksonville: Olsen has been targeted 10 times through two weeks (112 yards) and nearly hauled in his first touchdown against the Packers. The touchdown reception was called back because of a penalty. Cam Newton’s high-flying opening to the season continues this week against the Jacksonville defense. Newton gets the first win of his career this week and posts a big point total.
Scott Chandler, BUF vs. New England: I know. The Patriots eliminated Antonio Gates last week. I suspect they’ll spend more time worrying about cutting off the routes of Stevie Johnson and David Nelson than game-planning for Chandler. There’s another high-scoring affair in the offing, and I like Chandler to pull a “reverse Gronkowski” and set up in the low post.
Ed Dickson, BAL at St. Louis: Dickson slid off of the radar in Week 2 as Joe Flacco ran for his life and struggled terribly against the Titans. I expect to see Flacco get rid of the ball quickly (“Hot route!”) against Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzing defense. The Rams will try to disguise the limitations in the banged-up secondary and attack. Flacco gets it out quickly and involves Dickson early and often.
Evan Moore, CLE vs. Miami: Starting Moore this week requires a great deal of intestinal fortitude. He’s yet to take on a huge target count (seven through two games), but Colt McCoy trusts his 6-foot-6 tight end in the red zone. Moore has scored in back-to-back games, and I dare suggest that he makes it a hat trick!
Flop Alerts
Dallas Clark, IND vs. Pittsburgh: Clark scored in Week 2 against the Browns (four receptions for 32 yards), but this offense has yet to find any semblance of consistency. Is he a back-end starter for this week? Sure, I’d still expect to see Clark in the 6-8 target range with perhaps 50-60 receiving yards. Just don’t expect heroics.
Heath Miller, PIT at Indianapolis: Miller has only been targeted eight times through two weeks. I don’t anticipate a big target count for Miller this week, as I suspect that he’ll be held in to block more frequently. Early injuries on the Pittsburgh offensive line necessitate support from Miller.
Kickers Are People, Too (Matchup Plays)
David Akers, SF at Cincinnati: The passing offense still makes you queasy, particularly with Braylon Edwards on the shelf and Michael Crabtree’s lingering health concerns. Still, the 49ers will be able to run the ball with Frank Gore and work some special teams magic to give Akers his opportunities.
The former Philadelphia kicker has converted five field goals and six PATs through two weeks. I don’t trust the San Francisco red zone offense, so I’ll take the three points.
Rian Lindell, BUF vs. New England: Lindell has converted three field goals and 10 PATs in support of Chan Gailey’s high-flying spread offense. I’m anticipating a number of Lindell sightings in Sunday’s home tilt against the Patriots in what promises to be a high-scoring game (the smart guys in Nevada have the point total at 54). Take the sure trio of PATs and work from there.
Dan Carpenter, MIA at Cleveland: Carpenter has already attempted five field goals (three conversions) with four PATs. He’ll most certainly be active again this week.
Cleveland is a middle of the road defense that has surrendered 23 points per game, and that’s including the nondescript Indianapolis offense in Week 2. Adam Vinatieri booted four field goals for the Colts last week. Neil Rackers converted two field goals and four PATs in Week 1.
Team Defenses to Round Things Out
Tennessee vs. Denver: I’m intrigued by this Tennessee squad. The pass defense blanketed Baltimore receivers in Week 2 and hurried Joe Flacco with great regularity. Cortland Finnegan and Cedric Griffin are playing well and boost Tennessee to third in pass defense (172 yards per game and one touchdown allowed). The Titans run defense also ranks in the upper-half of the league.
Kyle Orton will see his throwing lanes shrink and he’ll need to throw on the run. That’s not a good formula for success on the road.
Carolina vs. Jacksonville: The Jacksonville offense has been abysmal through two weeks, averaging just 9.5 points and 263 total yards per game. Maurice Jones-Drew ran well in Week 1, but there hasn’t been much else to cheer about otherwise. As a result, the Jaguars made the change to rookie Blaine Gabbert for Week 3 to set up a battle of rookie quarterbacks.
I’m certainly not putting up the Panthers as a world-beating unit (tied for 26th in total defense), but this is a good spot start at home. Gabbert struggled in the preseason and will be tested, particularly with Mike Thomas matched up against Chris Gamble.
Arizona at Seattle: I know. This smacks of a “let’s get cute” kind of play. It might just be a trap.
After all, the Cardinals were positively awful in Week 1 and didn’t exactly shut down Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Still, I haven’t seen much (anything) to get excited about in Seattle. Marshawn Lynch is running behind a broken line and Tarvaris Jackson hasn’t found a “go-to” receiver.
The Seahawks did generate 17 points in the opener against the 49ers prior to last week’s shutout by the Steelers.
