I did resolve to do better, and I hope I have. Anyway, it’s heartening to see one of my colleagues, Ken Rosenthal, actually go back and identify five (supposed) errors he made during the season. In case you didn’t know this already, Ken’s one of the good ones. For a lot of reasons, his spirit of accountability being just one.
Today, I want to focus on just one of Ken’s mea culpas …
The offending passage, written two weeks ago:
Yes, Billy Hamilton ranks 60th out of 68 in OPS among NL hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. But his defense and baserunning more than compensate for his hitting deficiencies, and he has been with the Reds all season, appearing in 139 of 145 games.
DeGrom’s case lacks the same bulk — he did not join the Mets until May 13 and was on the disabled list from Aug. 12 to 23 due to right rotator cuff tendinitis.
Mets fans can stop tweeting at me now.
I take it back. I TAKE IT ALL BACK!
Those who dwell on Hamilton’s offensive shortcomings tend to overlook his other attributes. But in the end, I also can’t get past Hamilton’s .293 on-base percentage — .256 since the All-Star Break through Monday.
deGrom, on the other hand, kept improving, pitching to a 1.33 ERA, holding opponents to a .457 OPS and producing a 38-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in September.
He’s fun to watch. And yes, he’s Rookie of the Year.
I don’t know, man ... Can things really change so much in just two weeks? Hamilton remains a speedy and effective runner, and a much better center fielder than most of us expected. Just last night he did this:
Alas, that homer-saving catch left Hamilton with a mild concussion, and he might not play again this season. But if that is Sliding Billy’s last highlight play, it’ll be apt; according to at least one measure, he’s been the best defensive outfielder in the majors this season. By another (related) measure, he’s been three or four wins above replacement, which is (again) a lot better than many of us expected.
And what about Jacob deGrom?
He’s also been a lot better than we expected! Before this season, deGrom wasn’t a Rookie of the Year candidate, wasn’t on anybody’s Top 100 Prospects list; Minor League Ball’s John Sickels gave deGrom a B- grade, ranking him 12th among the Mets’ prospects.
Which doesn’t mean much now. Now, we just look at what deGrom’s done in the majors, and he’s been really good. How good? Despite making only 22 starts, he’s got roughly 3 Wins Above Replacement.
Granted, Hamilton’s maybe half-a-win higher ... but that’s a distinction without a difference, especially considering how much uncertainty attends one-season fielding metrics.
Really, I don’t think Ken Rosenthal was wrong about Hamilton. I think you can make a perfectly good case for the every-day center fielder who’s been fine, and I think you can make a perfectly good case for the starting pitcher with 140 innings.
But like Ken, I probably would vote for deGrom. Because of that uncertainty. Still, I do think we need to continue revising downward our standards for hitters, as the norms keep going down.
Hamilton’s got a 650 OPS. Not good. Which translates to an 83 OPS+. Still not good, or close to good. But just 11 seasons ago, Endy Chavez finished with roughly the same numbers as Hamilton ... but with a 65 OPS+. Thirteen years ago, same thing with Tony Womack. We’ve basically returned to the 1980s, and Billy Hamilton is the new Vince Coleman. Except with fewer steals and better defense.
Actually, there are striking similarities between Hamilton’s rookie season and Coleman’s, in 1985. And wouldn’t you know it, Coleman did take Rookie of the Year honors, as voters were blown away by his 110 steals. And the runner-up? Cincinnati’s Tom Browning, who went 20-9 and pitched 261 innings.
You think any of the voters who thought Vince Coleman was better than Tom Browning later wrote a column admitting how wrong he was?
