Shields rejects Royals' qualifying offer; search for replacement begins
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- When the Royals traded for right-hander James Shields two winters ago, general manager Dayton Moore declared that the move meant the club was in a "win now" mode.
That mission was accomplished, thanks in no small part to Shields.
Kansas City delivered its first winning season in 10 years in 2013. And in 2014, the Royals returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1985, going the distance before falling to the San Francisco Giants in Game 7 of the World Series.
And those two exciting seasons will become Shields' legacy in Kansas City.
As expected, Shields on Monday turned down the team's $15.3 million qualifying offer and now will look for a big payday on the open market.
Moore has indicated repeatedly that the Royals will remain in contact with Shields' camp. But as one of the top-tier pitching free agents, Shields likely could command anywhere from $15 million to $20 million a year in a three- or four-year deal -- too rich for the Royals' liking.
Kansas City is expected to increase payroll by $5 to $10 million, thus going over the $100 million mark in 2015. But the Royals have several million targeted for arbitration raises, and the team also must allocate more financial resources to fill potential holes in right field, to replace free agent Nori Aoki, and at designated hitter, where Billy Butler is a free agent. The Royals do have interest in re-signing Butler.
Those cost allotments wouldn't leave enough room to ink Shields to the type of contract he covets.
Instead, look for the Royals to search for a cost-efficient starter to replace Shields. They are expected to make contact with free agents Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano and Jake Peavy.
Santana and Liriano also rejected qualifying offers, meaning the Royals would have to forfeit their first-round pick if they signed them. And even though the Royals would still get a supplemental pick if Shields signs elsewhere, there is debate in the organization whether each is worth a multi-year deal and a first-round pick.
The Royals, under Moore, have prided themselves as a draft-and-develop organization.
Peavy would be the far cheaper alternative, and he comes with no draft pick forfeiture attached. But while Peavy is a fierce competitor, his fastball continues to dip in velocity to the 90-mph range and under, which naturally raises concerns.
There had been some thinking in baseball circles that some of the free agents who received qualifying offers might actually accept them this year, most notably Liriano.
There were even some whispers that Shields, who had an unfortunate postseason that could hurt his overall market value, might even consider the $15.3 million and try again for a multi-year deal after next season.
But Shields' age -- he will turn 33 next month -- likely instilled a sense of urgency to get whatever multi-year deal he can now.
All 12 players offered qualifying offers rejected them. That makes 34 of 34 qualifying offers rejected over the three years the system has been in place.
You can follow Jeffrey Flanagan on Twitter at @jflanagankc or email him at jeffreyflanagan6@gmail.com.
