As impressive as have been the Milwaukee Brewers this season, the Cardinals should be able to catch them, said two veteran scouts who have watched both teams play recently.
The Cardinals have the confidence that comes with making a deep run into October the past three seasons, a better defense and the NL's best battery in Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina.
The Brewers have shown a stronger offense, a deeper bullpen and a rotation that is much improved over recent seasons. They also have been on top of the NL Central since April 9, taking a 4 1/2-game lead into Tuesday night.
"The Brewers have the better team," one scout said. "They don't have the experience that the Cardinals have, so it should be a very interesting race. I'm not counting out Cincinnati or Pittsburgh, but the Reds haven't been able to stay healthy. The Pirates need to get back a couple of their starting pitchers before we really see what they can do."
The Cardinals, said one scout, own an edge over the Brewers in starting pitching because of depth and, more significantly, "Milwaukee doesn't have a No. 1 starter."
St. Louis, of course, might have THE No. 1 starter in the league in Wainwright. One scout saw no carryover effects of the tendinitis that led to Wainwright skipping a turn early last week. "He looked as good as ever to me," the scout said. "He has such a great feel for pitching. When his stuff is on, he is a pleasure to watch."
While the Cardinals' offense has not been so much fun for fans to watch at times this season, the other scout said he noticed only a slight regression from a year ago, mainly because Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig aren't driving the ball like they did a year ago.
The offense's main problem, however, is a lack of team speed that makes it difficult to manufacture runs. The club hoped Peter Bourjos would be able to provide a lift in that department, but he has had trouble getting on base and has lost the center-field job to Jon Jay.
While both scouts rated the Brewers' bullpen stronger than the Cardinals, one said, "It's a toss-up."
"I like the way Sam Freeman has helped them and when I saw Trevor Rosenthal last week, he was throwing much better than he was early. His velocity was up and that's a big deal for him," the scout added.
The Brewers field a lineup that is second in the NL in scoring and has outscored the Cardinals by 61 runs. Milwaukee also is second in homers, with 81 to the Cardinals' 44. But catching the ball is another matter.
"Where the Brewers are at a disadvantage is their defense," the same scout said. "The shortstop (Jean Segura) is good and Carlos Gomez gives them the advantage (over St. Louis) in center field, but they don't have a lot of range in the rest of the infield."
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As for Cincinnati, one scout said, "For the Reds to get better, Joey Votto must get better." But he is not the same. He can't drive off his leg."
While both scouts said the Pirates could use more offense -- who couldn't, one pointed out -- their chances hinge largely on starters Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole. Liriano has not been nearly as effective as last season and just landed on the disabled list (oblique). Cole, the Pirates' version of Michael Wacha, is working his way back from shoulder fatigue. If those two don't return and pitch like they did last season, a lack of offense will not be the Pirates' main issue.
After all, most teams are dealing with offenses that have struggled to score runs.
"Parity is the word all around baseball this year," one scout said. "Especially in the NL Central."
You can follow Stan McNeal on Twitter at @StanMcNeal or email him at stanmcneal@gmail.com.
