Two weeks ago, before the Royals squared off against the A's in the Wild Card Game, I offered a few pieces of advice for manager Ned Yost, focusing on limiting the amount of outs he asked James Shields to get, not bunting too early in the game, and using the team's speed to steal a bunch of bases. Using something not too far off that blueprint, the Royals staged a miraculous comeback and won the Wild Card Game -- and they haven't lost since. So now, one game away from a trip to the World Series, I have one more suggestion for Ned Yost.
You have two starters available on full rest: Use both of them.
Due to the Monday rainout, the Royals have both Jason Vargas and James Shields available to start Wednesday's Game 4, though the Royals have already announced that they're going to stick with Vargas, while Shields remains on deck to pitch a Game 5, if it proves necessary. The easiest way to make that game unnecessary, though, would be to use both of those starters Wednesday.
One of the reasons Vargas was slotted to pitch in this game is because the Royals didn't love the matchup of his left-handed stuff against a predominantly right-handed Orioles lineup. Steve Pearce, Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz all brutalized left-handed pitching this year, and while the Orioles' offense is still plenty effective against right-handers, there are several advantages to be had from asking Vargas to only throw three innings, and then following with three more from Shields.
The primary benefit would come from forcing Baltimore's hitters to face different pitchers each time up. For Vargas especially, this is a pretty big deal; here are his career splits against hitters after each time through the lineup:
1st PA: .245/.297/.394
2nd PA: .270/.326/.425
3rd PA: .281/.335/.449
The first time hitters face Vargas in a game, he has held them to a .690 OPS, well below the league average. The third time he has faced a hitter in a game, they have put up a .784 OPS against him. To put that in context, hitters have produced against Vargas in their first at-bat like Ben Revere or Leonys Martin; by their third at-bat, they have hit like Alex Gordon or Adam Jones.
If you prefer ERA, here are Vargas' career numbers by inning:
1st: 3.84
2nd: 2.83
3rd: 3.96
4th: 4.35
5th: 5.77
6th: 4.96
For three innings, Vargas is a pretty good pitcher, posting a combined ERA of 3.55. From innings 4-6, Vargas' career ERA is 5.01, which is kind of awful. The Royals' best chance to win Game 4 is to limit the Orioles' opportunities to hit against Vargas a second or third time, which is when their rallies are most likely to come. By switching to Shields in the fourth inning, those trouble zones can be avoided entirely.
And throwing Shields on Wednesday actually has a tangible benefit itself, beyond just limiting the odds of Cruz, Jones and Pearce teeing off on Vargas in the middle innings. If the Royals win Game 4 and Shields doesn't pitch, he'll be scheduled to start Game 1 of the World Series on 10 days' rest. Shields has never started a game on more than eight days rest in his career, and on the two occurrences he got that kind of break between starts, he combined to give up nine runs in 12 innings pitched.
Two poor starts on extra-long rest don't prove anything, of course, but pitchers regularly talk about the importance of routine; asking Shields to go nearly two weeks between outings might not be advantageous to the Royals' chances in the World Series. But using both starters to get to the Kelvin Herrera-Wade Davis-Greg Holland trio of hitter destruction has an additional benefit, helping to limit the chances of a miraculous comeback by the Orioles.
If the Royals just play it straight, they would be lined up to start Vargas, Shields and Yordano Ventura over the next three games, but if the Orioles managed to win all three of those contests, the Royals' only full-rest option for a decisive Game 7 would be Danny Duffy, who has thrown a grand total of one inning in the postseason after pitching just eight ineffective innings in September. The rainout eliminated the travel day on Thursday, so if the Orioles manage to come back and push this series to the seventh game, the Royals would be faced with choosing between Jeremy Guthrie on short rest or a very-rusty-and-questionably-healthy Duffy.
If you use both Vargas and Shields for three innings on Wednesday, however, both could theoretically be available to come back and pitch in similar roles on Saturday. Limiting Vargas' workload in Game 4 not only gives the team the best chance to sweep, but it improves the team's chances of winning the last game of the series, if the Orioles manage to make that a reality.
Additionally, using a tandem-starter system in Game 4 (and Game 7, if it came to that) could create some issues for Orioles manager Buck Showalter. With the left-handed Vargas slated to start, it's highly likely that Delmon Young will start in left field over Alejandro De Aza, as he did in the ALDS when the Tigers put David Price on the mound. However, by swapping out Vargas for Shields after just three innings, Showalter would be forced to either remove Young after getting just one at-bat, or let Shields go through a lineup that is even more right-handed than usual. Even if Showalter counters by immediately substituting in De Aza, it shortens his bench and limits his strategic options for late-game situations.
This plan is probably too out there for a team that is very likely headed to the World Series even without these kinds of aggressive tactics. I'd probably have a more compelling case for this strategy if the Royals were down 3-0 instead of up 3-0, and Yost's team can probably advance just by letting his starters pitch in their normal roles, trusting his team to not lose four games in a row, especially since it is undefeated in the playoffs so far.
But the Royals have a chance to win the American League pennant Wednesday, in front of their home crowd. Their best chance to win this one game involves getting Vargas off the hill pretty early, and luckily for the Royals, they happen to have their best starter on full rest available to make up the difference. Vargas-Shields-Herrera-Davis-Holland and throw a party. It sounds like a pretty decent plan to me.
