This is the eighth year of this column, the purpose of which is to share some of my observations of the NFL from the perspective of an industry analyst, fan, fantasy owner, sports bettor, survivor player and daily gamer, not necessarily in that order. It's my suspicion a fair number of you are similar to me in that your interest in the game isn't limited to any one of those facets, and so pretty much anything NFL-related is fair game here. Your comments and feedback are welcome.
One change: I won't be doing a full survivor section or a best bet ATS this year. The problem was the column went up Tuesday night, and it was too early in the week to publish anything to which I'd want to commit. And while I always wrote "I reserve the right to change my mind," it was torture deciding whether to go against my first instinct and already-published advice. In practice, I was making survivor and ATS choices on Tuesday, an unnecessary handicap. With the Thursday game, it's unavoidable to make picks too early (Wednesday night), but at least we've seen the initial injury report. I will talk plenty of survivor here still and of course handicapping.
For those of you in pools with early deadlines, you should consider joining ones that allow you to adjust until five minutes before kickoff. Given the variety of good Survivor and Office Pool Commissioner options, there's no reason to be locked in mid-week.
Non-obvious Predictions for 2013
-Rob Gronkowski returns in mid-to-late September and scores 12 TDs, making him more valuable than Jimmy Graham, when you factor in the 3-4 games of the replacement tight end you used while Gronkowski was out.
-Maurice Jones-Drew is a top-10 back.
-Reggie Bush gets off to a huge start, making him a top-5 PPR back through the season's first month, but injuries in October destroy his season.
-Eli Manning is a top-10 QB.
-Alex Smith throws 28 touchdown passes, 12 of which go to Dwayne Bowe.
-One RB on the Jets, Cardinals or Steelers finishes in the top-20.
-DeMarco Murray is a top-10 back on a per-game basis. If he plays 14-plus games, he's top-10 overall.
-Antonio Gates finishes as a top-5 TE.
-Neither the Falcons, nor the Saints win the NFC South.
-Demaryius Thomas has a better year than Brandon Marshall or Julio Jones.
-Josh Gordon returns from suspension to post a top-20 WR season.
-Rod Streater leads the Raiders in receiving yards and TDs.
-Mark Ingram scores 10-plus TDs.
-LaMichael James is a factor for the fantasy playoffs.
-Daryl Richardson outproduces DeAngelo Williams.
-Cam Newton has a better fantasy season than Drew Brees and Peyton Manning.
-Joe Flacco and the Ravens make the playoffs yet again.
-Neither Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard nor Montee Ball is the top rookie RB.
-The NFC East is the highest-scoring division in football.
-Some of these predictions are wrong.
Last year's predictions can be found here. (Scroll down). For 2011, click here and scroll.
ADP vs. Year-End Results
Like last year, let's take a look at how well preseason ADP stacks up against year-end results:
QUARTERBACKS
2011
| QB ADP | QB | OV ADP | Actual Finish | Year-End Leaders |
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 7.3 | 3 | Drew Brees |
| 2 | Michael Vick | 9.46 | 12 | Cam Newton |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 15.82 | 4 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 4 | Drew Brees | 18.22 | 1 | Tom Brady |
| 5 | Philip Rivers | 20.6 | 7 | Matthew Stafford |
| 6 | Tony Romo | 38.65 | 9 | Eli Manning |
| 7 | Peyton Manning | 44.83 | NR* | Philip Rivers |
| 8 | Matt Ryan | 46.27 | 8 | Matt Ryan |
| 9 | Matt Schaub | 49.27 | 25 | Tony Romo |
| 10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 52.59 | 14 | Mark Sanchez |
| 11 | Matthew Stafford | 71.83 | 5 | Ryan Fitzpatrick |
| 12 | Josh Freeman | 79.53 | 13 | Michael Vick |
*NR = not in the top-30
2012
| QB ADP | QB | OV ADP | Actual Finish | Year-End Leaders |
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | 2.61 | 4 | Drew Brees |
| 2 | Tom Brady | 5.46 | 2 | Tom Brady |
| 3 | Drew Brees | 6.44 | 1 | Cam Newton |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 12.79 | 8 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 5 | Cam Newton | 13.52 | 3 | Matt Ryan |
| 6 | Eli Manning | 34.13 | 15 | Peyton Manning |
| 7 | Matt Ryan | 36.43 | 5 | Tony Romo |
| 8 | Michael Vick | 44.83 | 27 | Matthew Stafford |
| 9 | Peyton Manning | 46 | 6 | Robert Griffin |
| 10 | Tony Romo | 54.27 | 7 | Andrew Luck |
| 11 | Philip Rivers | 59.48 | 19 | Russell Wilson |
| 12 | Robert Griffin | 82.86 | 9 | Andy Dalton |
The first thing that jumps out is how reliable top quarterbacks have been the last two years. Of the top five in 2011, only Michael Vick failed to return a top-seven finish. In 2012, all five finished in the top eight. Also while in 2010, Michael Vick went from undrafted to top-five and in 2011 Cam Newton went from No. 25 to No. 2, last year no one outside the top 12 finished higher than 10th (Andrew Luck). Put differently, the top-nine QB finishes from last year were all by top-12 ADP QBs.
The data present a decent argument that you can win by taking a QB early - even if the difference in projected year-end points between Marshawn Lynch and a seventh round RB (say Ben Tate) is greater than the difference between Drew Brees and a seventh-round QB (say Tony Romo). Brees' projection is far more reliable than Lynch's, so you can bank on that positive differential over Romo with more certainty. Of course, Romo's projection is far more reliable than Tate's, but the reliability argument matters most at the top.
RUNNING BACKS
2011
| RB ADP | RB | OV ADP | Actual Finish | Year-End Leaders |
| 1 | Adrian Peterson | 2.15 | 7 | Ray Rice |
| 2 | Arian Foster | 4.25 | 4 | LeSean McCoy |
| 3 | Ray Rice | 4.57 | 1 | Maurice Jones-Drew |
| 4 | Chris Johnson | 5.86 | 17 | Arian Foster |
| 5 | Jamaal Charles | 5.98 | NR | Marshawn Lynch |
| 6 | LeSean McCoy | 8.21 | 2 | Michael Turner |
| 7 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 13.38 | 3 | Adrian Peterson |
| 8 | Rashard Mendenhall | 13.6 | 19 | Darren Sproles |
| 9 | Darren McFadden | 16.76 | NR | Ryan Mathews |
| 10 | Michael Turner | 19.94 | 6 | Michael Bush |
| 11 | Frank Gore | 20.45 | 13 | Steven Jackson |
| 12 | Matt Forte | 22.04 | 15 | Reggie Bush |
| 13 | Steven Jackson | 22.93 | 11 | Frank Gore |
| 14 | Peyton Hillis | 25.69 | NR | Fred Jackson |
| 15 | LeGarrette Blount | 35.43 | 29 | Matt Forte |
| 16 | Ahmad Bradshaw | 37.1 | 20 | Beanie Wells |
| 17 | Felix Jones | 38.46 | NR | Chris Johnson |
| 18 | Jahvid Best | 40.16 | NR | Shonn Greene |
| 19 | Shonn Greene | 45.39 | 18 | Rashard Mendenhall |
| 20 | Ryan Mathews | 47.18 | 9 | Ahmad Bradshaw |
2012
| RB ADP | RB | OV ADP | Actual Finish | Year-End Leaders |
| 1 | Arian Foster | 2.6 | 3 | Adrian Peterson |
| 2 | Ray Rice | 4.27 | 6 | Doug Martin |
| 3 | LeSean McCoy | 5.19 | 21 | Arian Foster |
| 4 | Chris Johnson | 9.56 | 12 | Marshawn Lynch |
| 5 | Darren McFadden | 11.61 | NR | Alfred Morris |
| 6 | Matt Forte | 14.04 | 13 | Ray Rice |
| 7 | DeMarco Murray | 18.54 | 25 | C.J. Spiller |
| 8 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 18.94 | NR | Jamaal Charles |
| 9 | Adrian Peterson | 20.19 | 1 | Trent Richardson |
| 10 | Marshawn Lynch | 22.49 | 4 | Frank Gore |
| 11 | Jamaal Charles | 23.95 | 8 | Stevan Ridley |
| 12 | Ryan Mathews | 29.15 | 30 | Chris Johnson |
| 13 | Steven Jackson | 30.6 | 18 | Matt Forte |
| 14 | Fred Jackson | 32.73 | NR | Reggie Bush |
| 15 | Trent Richardson | 33.08 | 9 | Shonn Greene |
| 16 | Michael Turner | 35.54 | 17 | Ahmad Bradshaw |
| 17 | Darren Sproles | 40.28 | 22 | Michael Turner |
| 18 | Frank Gore | 40.38 | 10 | Steven Jackson |
| 19 | Ahmad Bradshaw | 41.45 | 16 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis |
| 20 | Doug Martin | 43.8 | 2 | Mikel Leshoure |
In 2011, five of the top seven ADP RBs finished in the top seven, with only Jamaal Charles (torn ACL) and Chris Johnson missing the cut. If you expand it to the top-13 that year, Rashard Mendenhall (No. 19) and Darren McFadden (NR) were also busts, but everyone else finished in the top-15, i.e., nine of the top-13 ADP RBs finished in the top 15 in 2011, and 11 of the top 13 finished in the top 20.
Last year was a different story. Of the top-eight ADP RBs, two finished outside the top-30, four finished outside the top-20 and only one (Arian Foster) finished in the top-5.
Chances are 2013 will fall in between the extreme results of the last two seasons in terms of RB reliability, but it's a safe bet 3-4 backs in the top-10 won't finish in the top-20.
WIDE RECEIVERS
2011
| WR ADP | WR | OV ADP | Actual Finish | Year-End Leaders |
| 1 | Andre Johnson | 11.04 | NR | Calvin Johnson |
| 2 | Calvin Johnson | 14.25 | 1 | Jordy Nelson |
| 3 | Roddy White | 15.34 | 8 | Wes Welker |
| 4 | Larry Fitzgerald | 17.44 | 5 | Victor Cruz |
| 5 | Greg Jennings | 22.5 | 17 | Larry Fitzgerald |
| 6 | Hakeem Nicks | 23.46 | 12 | Steve Smith |
| 7 | Vincent Jackson | 24.76 | 10 | Percy Harvin |
| 8 | Mike Wallace | 28.43 | 9 | Roddy White |
| 9 | DeSean Jackson | 31.59 | NR | Mike Wallace |
| 10 | Miles Austin | 31.96 | NR | Vincent Jackson |
| 11 | Reggie Wayne | 34.26 | 29 | Marques Colston |
| 12 | Dwayne Bowe | 36.6 | 20 | Hakeem Nicks |
| 13 | Dez Bryant | 42.68 | 19 | Brandon Marshall |
| 14 | Wes Welker | 44.04 | 3 | A.J. Green |
| 15 | Mike Williams | 44.61 | NR | Laurent Robinson |
| 16 | Brandon Marshall | 46.26 | 13 | Nate Washington |
| 17 | Marques Colston | 50.1 | 11 | Greg Jennings |
| 18 | Brandon Lloyd | 51.62 | 25 | Julio Jones |
| 19 | Santonio Holmes | 52.14 | NR | Dez Bryant |
| 20 | Anquan Boldin | 57.87 | NR | Dwayne Bowe |
2012
| WR ADP | WR | OV ADP | Actual Finish | Year-End Leaders |
| 1 | Calvin Johnson | 7.63 | 1 | Calvin Johnson |
| 2 | Larry Fitzgerald | 21.19 | NR | Brandon Marshall |
| 3 | Julio Jones | 22.5 | 9 | Dez Bryant |
| 4 | Andre Johnson | 22.71 | 8 | A.J. Green |
| 5 | Wes Welker | 28.63 | 12 | Demaryius Thomas |
| 6 | Greg Jennings | 28.79 | NR | Vincent Jackson |
| 7 | A.J. Green | 31.14 | 4 | Eric Decker |
| 8 | Roddy White | 31.32 | 11 | Andre Johnson |
| 9 | Victor Cruz | 32.99 | 13 | Julio Jones |
| 10 | Jordy Nelson | 34.52 | 29 | Marques Colston |
| 11 | Brandon Marshall | 34.94 | 2 | Roddy White |
| 12 | Hakeem Nicks | 39.77 | NR | Wes Welker |
| 13 | Mike Wallace | 44.1 | 25 | Victor Cruz |
| 14 | Dez Bryant | 47.14 | 3 | Michael Crabtree |
| 15 | Marques Colston | 47.68 | 10 | Reggie Wayne |
| 16 | Steve Smith | 49.99 | 19 | James Jones |
| 17 | Percy Harvin | 52.24 | NR | Randall Cobb |
| 18 | Demaryius Thomas | 55.02 | 5 | Mike Williams |
| 19 | Eric Decker | 59.88 | 7 | Steve Smith |
| 20 | Brandon Lloyd | 60.3 | 28 | Lance Moore |
Judging from the last two years, receivers have been the least reliable of the big-three positions. In 2011, the No. 1 WR (Andre Johnson) failed to crack the top-30, and last year, the No. 2 (Larry Fitzgerald) did the same despite staying healthy all year.
Looking deeper, in 2011, the top-10 ADP WR produced five top-10 year-end finishes, but Nos. 2 (Jordy Nelson) and 4 (Victor Cruz) weren't even in the top-30 ADP.
In 2012, four of the top-10 ADP WR finished in the top-10, while three of the top-10 failed to crack the top-25. Last year, the sweet spot was 11-20, where there were five top-10 finishes, more than in the 1-10 range. But in 2011, slots 11-20 were a disaster at WR, with one top-10 finish and five outside the top-20.
TIGHT ENDS
2011
| TE ADP | TE | OV ADP | Actual Finish | Year-End Leaders |
| 1 | Antonio Gates | 38.77 | 7 | Rob Gronkowski |
| 2 | Jermichael Finley | 48.06 | 5 | Jimmy Graham |
| 3 | Jason Witten | 50.93 | 6 | Aaron Hernandez |
| 4 | Dallas Clark | 59.52 | NR | Tony Gonzalez |
| 5 | Vernon Davis | 63.33 | 8 | Jermichael Finley |
| 6 | Jimmy Graham | 75.7 | 2 | Jason Witten |
| 7 | Owen Daniels | 79.05 | 16 | Antonio Gates |
| 8 | Rob Gronkowski | 99.67 | 1 | Vernon Davis |
| 9 | Marcedes Lewis | 100.24 | NR | Dustin Keller |
| 10 | Kellen Winslow | 108.48 | 15 | Brent Celek |
2012
| TE ADP | TE | OV ADP | Actual Finish | Year-End Leaders |
| 1 | Jimmy Graham | 19.51 | 1 | Jimmy Graham |
| 2 | Rob Gronkowski | 20.12 | 2 | Rob Gronkowski |
| 3 | Antonio Gates | 51.92 | 12 | Tony Gonzalez |
| 4 | Aaron Hernandez | 52.6 | 16 | Heath Miller |
| 5 | Vernon Davis | 59.84 | 15 | Jason Witten |
| 6 | Jermichael Finley | 63.97 | 17 | Greg Olsen |
| 7 | Jason Witten | 88.09 | 5 | Dennis Pitta |
| 8 | Brandon Pettigrew | 90.2 | 21 | Owen Daniels |
| 9 | Tony Gonzalez | 95.51 | 3 | Kyle Rudolph |
| 10 | Fred Davis | 98.86 | NR | Brandon Myers |
In 2011, the top-10 ADP TE took six of the top-10 year-end slots, but because Nos. 6 and 8 (Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski) had such historically great seasons, and TEs are typically cheap after the top few are off the board, it's hard to call the preseason ADP accurate. Put differently, the top-five ADP TE had only one top-five finish, and it was Jermichael Finley at No. 5.
Last year, the market got Graham and Gronkowski right, but was otherwise largely off base.
This is only two years of data, and it's possible the results are anomalous over that span. But from this sample it seems the reliability of preseason ADP is strongest at QB, then RB, then WR and then TE. That's not surprising when you consider those positions are also ordered in descending number of attempts. Fewer opportunities mean a smaller sample and, as such, more volatility.
Heading to Vegas for the NFFC
After Thursday's SXM show, I'm heading to Vegas to host the NFFC $10,000 buy-in Diamond league on Friday morning (I have assurances from both Greg Ambrosius and Tom Kessenich that if someone fails to show, I'll take his spot, but it's not too often someone bails after paying 10K).
After that, I'm drafting in the NFFC Main Event and picking seventh, which was my preferred slot given the third-round reversal. I figure once Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and Jamaal Charles are off the board, I'll get either C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson, Calvin Johnson or Ray Rice, any of whom I'm happy with. Then I get a mid-round pick in both Rounds 2 and 3.
But both of those events are on Friday, so I get to watch the Broncos-Ravens game from a sports book - will be taking the Ravens plus 7.5 and looking for other random props for the game.
I also might head down to the LVH for some season-long props. Here are a couple I found online:
(It's worth reading through all of them to see how the sports books essentially rank players for fantasy purposes and how those rankings differ from ADP or your own personal rankings)
-NFL MVP J.J. Watt 50:1
-Demaryius Thomas to lead NFL in receiving yards 16:1
-Steven Jackson over 7.5 rushing TDs (-130)
-Torrey Smith over 1,000 receiving yards
-Josh Gordon over 825.5 receiving yards
-Jason Witten under 92.5 receptions
-Wes Welker under 7 receiving TDs
-Calvin Johnson over 10 receiving TDs
-Reggie Wayne under 5.5 receiving TDs
-Maurice Jones-Drew over 1,000.5 rushing yards
-Alex Smith over 3350 passing yards
-Alex Smith over 19.5 TD passes
-Dwayne Bowe over 1,000.5 receiving yards
-Dwayne Bowe over six TDs.
-Stevan Ridley over 10 rushing TDs
-Mark Ingram over 6.5 rushing TDs
-Eli Manning over 4100 passing yards
-Doug Martin over 8.5 rushing TDs
-Mike Williams over six receiving TDs
Follow @Chris_Liss on Twitter.
Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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