There is no offseason. None.
We haven't even played one week of the postseason, but I'm
already looking at which quarterbacks might fit into your fantasy
plans for 2010.
At one point, rookie QBs would have the luxury of planting
their tails on the bench for an entire season, reading the playbook
and trying to learn as much as he could by watching the journeyman
incubment try to lead the team. Some quarterbacks still do that,
but it's not as standard as it once was.
Matt Ryan,
Joe Flacco and
Ben Roethlisberger all started as rookies in
recent seasons, and each of them led their respective teams to the
playoffs in their first go of it. There's less reluctance to throw
a rookie QB straight into the fire than there once was. Granted,
very few rookie quarterbacks instantly translate into fantasy
studs, but it's still worth reviewing and knowing what to look for.
I'll also update each player through the combine and all the way to
the draft. Certain guys might fall out of the top 10, and if they
do, we'll review their replacements.
1. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame, 6-3, 222 lbs
2009 stats: 289-of-425, 3,722 yards, 28 TDs, 4 INT
NFL comparison:
Tony Romo
Projected draft position: Top five overall
Jan. 6 analysis: Clausen declaring for the draft
had to be music to the ears of the Rams front office (more on that
in a second), but take a look at his 7-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and
tell me that isn't mighty impressive. He threw at least two
touchdowns in all but two games this season, was never held without
at least one in any game and saved his best for last when his Notre
Dame tenure culminated, with a 340-yard, five-TD performance
against Stanford. I
t's even more impressive when you realize he'd reportedly
played the final 10 games of the season with a painful toe injury
on his right foot. That surgery will force him to miss the 2010 NFL
Combine, but that's not a huge concern. His overall body of work
will speak for itself.
The Rams have to be awfully tempted to draft
Ndamukong Suh and slot him next to
Chris Long to give themselves two young and solid
cornerstones who'd go a long way towards rebuilding that awful
defense, but I have a hard time seeing them passing on Clausen.
He comes from a pro-style offensive scheme under Charlie Weis
and is the most NFL-ready quarterback of the bunch. St. Louis
simply can't go into another season with
Marc Bulger,
Kyle Boller and
Keith Null as their top QB options and expect to
play competitive football.
2. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, 6-4, 214 lbs
2009 stats: 39-for-69, 562, 2 TDs, 0 INT
NFL comparison:
Drew Brees
Projected draft position: Top 10 overall
Jan. 6 analysis: Before you assume I'm suggesting
Bradford will step into whatever situation he lands in and become
the next Drew Brees, I'm not. I'm simply pointing out their
striking similarities between the two, right down to the exact same
injury each of them experienced on their throwing shoulder. Hell,
maybe every quarterback should go through it if the end result is
the kind of season Brees had in 2009. The good news is Bradford
expects to make a full recovery in time for the draft.
Without question, Bradford would be in the discussion for the
No. 1 overall pick had his season not come to a very early end. He
may have even gone to the Lions instead of
Matt Stafford had he declared for last year's
draft. My only potential knock on him is he could stand to add a
little more bulk.
Other than that, he's a highly accurate passer who rarely
misses open targets and would be an ideal fit in a west coast
offense that calls for a short passing game. That doesn't mean his
accuracy wanes with deeper passes. Given time, he's the type of
quarterback who can sit in the pocket and methodically slice apart
a defense up and down the field. In his last complete season
(2008), he threw for 4,720 yards and 50 -
Fifty! - touchdown passes. Does that sound a little like
Brees to you? Sure does to me.
3. Tony Pike, Cincinnati, 6-6, 225 lbs
2009 stats: 211-of-338, 2,520 yards, 29 TDs, 6 INT
NFL comparison:
Philip Rivers
Projected draft position: Late first/early second
round
Jan. 6 analysis: Pike's numbers look pretty good at
first glance, but when you realize all that production came over
the course of just nine games, it's all the better. He missed three
games in the middle of the season after re-injuring a bone break in
his non-throwing arm, but threw for at least two touchdowns in
every game he played this season. It's a fair assumption that would
have held constant had he played all 12 of Cincinnati's regular
season games.
Pike isn't much of a scrambler, but he isn't a total statue
when being chased down, either. He's an accurate passer on both
short and deep routes. Some NFL GMs may think twice about taking
him because of the gimmicky and goofy offense Cincinnati ran under
Brian Kelly, but he could end up being a pretty nice fit for
someone.
4. Colt McCoy, Texas, 6-3, 211 lbs
2009 stats: 330-of-468, 3,512 yards, 27 TDs, 12
INT
NFL comparison:
Aaron Rodgers
Projected draft position: Late first/early second
round
Jan. 6 analysis: Poor Colt. He'll forever be
remembered for being a few fractions of a second removed from
throwing away - literally and figuratively - Texas' chances at BCS
Championship.
McCoy's overall numbers weren't bad, but the elephant in the
room is that he padded his stats against weaker teams while having
a bad habit of disappearing against tougher competition this past
year. He wasn't just a non-factor in the Big 12 Championship Game
against Nebraska (no TDs, three picks), he was actually a major
negative and almost cost them the game (the Clockgate play with one
second remaining notwithstanding).
He also didn't look that great against Oklahoma earlier in
the year, but the good news is that he has some nice mechanics,
above average mobility and a good head for the game. He's not going
to be a franchise quarterback, so it may take some time before he
has a shot at becoming a fantasy contributor.
5. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan, 6-3, 238 lbs
2009 stats: 285-of-401, 3,043 yards, 27 TDs, 6 INT
NFL comparison:
Alex Smith
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 6 analysis: The Mid-American Conference has
produced some decent quarterbacks at the NFL level, and I think
LeFevour's a major sleeper who could excel in the right system. I
was almost going to compare him to
Ben Roethlisberger (another former MAC QB), but he
doesn't have the imposing size Roethlisberger does.
The two do play the position similarly, though, and if the
Steelers don't address their offensive line, they may just need to
draft LeFevour and use him as a plug-and-play replacement since
Roethlisberger could end up in a full body cast by midseason if he
doesn't get better protection. But I digress.
Even if his stats don't suggest it, LeFevour's improved every
year he's been at Central Michigan. His two most productive seasons
were when he threw 27 TD passes as a sophomore and senior, but it
took 576 attempts to pull it off as a sophomore compared to just
401 as a senior.
He also threw just six picks in both his junior and senior
seasons. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, but he does show good
accuracy and a knack for eluding pressure. He can move around long
enough outside the pocket to wait for a receiver to get open
without recklessly throwing the ball into tight coverages. He does
a very good job of squaring up his shoulders in the direction he
wants to throw the ball, which helps his accuracy a great deal.
6. Tim Tebow, Florida, 6-3, 236 lbs
2009 stats: 213-for-314, 2,895 yards, 21 TD, 5 INT
NFL comparison: Ben Roethlisberger
Projected draft position: Late first/early second
round
Jan. 6 analysis: He's the ultimate wild card of
this draft. Short of going undrafted, nothing would surprise me.
Will he go in the first round? As late as the fourth? I'm prepared
for anything. A few scouts have whispered privately that Tebow
won't make it past their first-round selection if he's still on the
board. I'm not sure I really believe that, since Tebow's anything
but a QB who fits the traditional mold.
Unless you haven't watched a shred of college football this
season, you probably already know everything you need to about
Tebow. He's a tough-as-nails kid, a fiery leader and unrelenting
competitor. The problem is the system he ran in college is nothing
close to what he'll run anywhere in the NFL. He's not going to find
the room to run out of the pocket and make plays the way he did at
Florida with world-class linebackers chasing after him on every
play.
Not to mention, he managed to increase his passing yardage
and completions from '08 to '09, but he threw nine more touchdown
passes in '08. Hmm. Part of that can probably be attributed to
having talented receivers like
Percy Harvin (who can make a lot of things happen
after the catch), but he just won't fit into a conventional NFL
offense, which is why there's so much uncertainty surrounding his
status.
7. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas, 6-6, 250 lbs
2009 stats: 225-for-403, 3,627 yards, 30 TDs, 7
INT
NFL comparison:
JaMarcus Russell
Projected draft position: Late second/early third
round
Jan. 6 analysis: Mallett played one year at
Michigan, then transferred after he realized he'd be incompatible
with Rich Rodriguez's spread option offense. He sat out a year
before putting in one season's worth of work at Arkansas.
You know what's weird? Mallett has some characteristics
similar to Russell, and even a few that remind me of
Peyton Manning in some instances. How's that for
having the best and worst of everything? Let's start with Russell:
both he and Mallet are tall, imposing and somewhat lanky players
who can heave the ball a good 70 yards downfield. The problem is
Mallett has the mobility of a skyscraper. I'm also preparing for my
already low expectations to be underwhelmed when he runs the
40-yard dash at the combine next month.
But that sounds a lot like Peyton too, doesn't it? Manning
has a very good offensive line blocking for him, which is a big
reason he makes the plays he does. If Mallett finds himself in a
situation like that, he could prosper. He's going to have to work
his way up the depth chart to get there, though.
8. Jevan Snead, Ole Miss, 6-3, 221 lbs
2009 stats: 191-of-351, 2,632 yards, 20 TDs, 20
INT
NFL comparison:
Eli Manning
Projected draft position: Late second round
Jan. 6 analysis: He's still a junior who's pondering
whether to declare for the draft. Frankly, he'd do himself a lot of
good to return for his senior year. The transfer from Texas was
once considered to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, but that's
simply not going to happen after his topsy-turvy season at Ole
Miss. Throwing 20 interceptions compared to 20 touchdown passes at
the college level is simply not what top NFL quarterbacks do before
advancing to the pro game.
Snead had his good days, but he also had some pretty horrific
ones. Case in point: in the final four games of the season
(including the Cotton Bowl), he threw three touchdown passes
against seven interceptions. The problem was all three TDs came in
one game against Mississippi State. So did three of the
interceptions, which played a big role in the Rebels losing that
game.
His final audition of the season came in the Cotton Bowl, and
abysmal wouldn't come close to describing how poorly he played in
that game. Stay in school, Jevan. It's for your own good.
9. Sean Canfield, Oregon St., 6-4, 214 lbs
2009 stats: 303-of-446, 3,271 yards, 21 TD, 7 INT
NFL comparison:
Matt Ryan
Projected draft position: Late third/early fourth
round
Jan. 6 analysis: We can look past Canfield's less
than inspiring 168-yard, zero-TD, one-INT Las Vegas Bowl
performance against BYU. He didn't get a lot of help from his
teammates, who looked and played like they were in Vegas to party
for a few days instead of focusing on a bowl game.
Canfield finished the regular season with the highest
per-game passing yardage in the Pac-10 (258.6) and was a few
decimal points on either side of a 70 percent completion rate for a
good chunk of the year. Not all of his passes were short-range,
either, and he's more of a game managing quarterback than one who's
going to throw for explosive yardage. There's always room on some
NFL roster for someone who plays in that manner.
Will he ever blossom into a fantasy stud? It would probably
take an injury to whichever QB is ahead of him on the depth chart
for it to happen, but I'll be very curious to see how he performs
at the combine.
10. Jarrett Brown, West Virginia, 6-4, 220 lbs
2009 stats: 187-for-296, 2,144 yards, 11 TDs, 9
INT
NFL comparison: Josh Freeman
Projected draft position: Fourth round
Jan. 6 analysis: He was only a full-time starter in
his senior year, so his experience is very limited. Brown isn't
much of a passing QB - let's get that out of the way right off the
bat. He had only two total touchdown passes in his last six games
through the Gator Bowl and only two games all season long with more
than one TD. He only reached 200 passing yards in one of his last
eight games. Yikes.
What makes Brown a decent prospect is his ability to scramble
and make plays. When he's allowed to freelance and just go with the
flow is when he's at his best. Given the time to develop, he could
turn into a decent backup.
