As I sat down to pore through the numbers for this category, my mind raced to images of the power pitchers of the past.
I caught up with Nolan Ryan briefly during Super Bowl week in Dallas, so my brain immediately conjured an image of Ryan in his Houston jersey. What can I say? It had style. Next in the mental Rolodex were baseball card photographs of power pitchers Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. I chuckled as I considered the sight of Schilling in an Orioles uniform from the late 80s.
The breakdown of strikeout numbers when considering these projections reminded me of a lost era. We make frequent references to the dropoff in power numbers from the batter’s box. The dropoff in strikeout punch among starting pitchers has been cited less frequently. No pitcher has eclipsed 300 strikeouts since Johnson did so in 2002 (he struck out 290 in 2004).
The last of my mental images was that of the diminutive hurler of the World Series champion Giants. Tim Lincecum leads the strikeout parade this season.
1. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco
Analysis: Even in a “down” 2010 season, Lincecum still racked up 231 strikeouts in his 212 1/3 innings pitched (had 9.8 K’s per nine IP). In his four seasons in San Francisco, Lincecum has averaged 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. He’s led the National League in strikeouts in three consecutive seasons. I understand the concern about his long-term prospects and potential injury risks. I’m not projecting this catastrophic event for 2011.
2010 Strikeout Total: 231
2011 Strikeout Projection: 245
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle
Analysis: The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner posted a career-best strikeout rate in 2010. He struck out 8.4 batters per nine innings last season, including 14 starts in which he struck out at least eight batters. Fantasy owners can rely on Hernandez to work deep into games. He completed at least six innings in 32 of his 34 starts in 2010.
Hernandez owns a career strikeout rate of 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
2010 Strikeout Total: 232
2011 Strikeout Projection: 238
3. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Analysis: Kershaw recently signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers worth $500,000, making him one of the biggest bargains in Major League Baseball. In the past two years, the 6-foot-3, 22-year old lefty (he turns 23 on March 19) has averaged 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. He struck out eight or more batters in 11 of his 32 starts.
2010 Strikeout Total: 212
2011 Strikeout Projection: 232
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado
Analysis: Jimenez produced the best first half we’ve seen in recent memory during the 2010 season. He then pitched to a more human-like 3.80 ERA in his 15 second-half starts. Jimenez continued to pile up strikeouts. In fact, his strikeout rate was actually higher in the second half.
Jimenez has averaged 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings in three full seasons as a starter in Colorado. His rate of 8.9 strikeout per nine innings ranked ninth in the National League last season. His total of 214 strikeouts ranked eighth in all of Major League Baseball.
2010 Strikeout Total: 214
2011 Strikeout Projection: 223
5. Jon Lester, Boston
Analysis: Lester has established himself as one of the best starters in the game. He pitched well in his introduction to the Boston rotation in 2008, but his peripheral numbers improved markedly in the past two seasons. Lester has amassed 225 strikeouts in back-to-back seasons, and he’s pitched more than 200 innings in three consecutive seasons. He struck out at least eight batters in 12 starts last season.
2010 Strikeout Total: 225
2011 Strikeout Projection: 217
6. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
Analysis: Following a marked dip in his strikeout rate in the 2006 and 2007 seasons, Halladay rediscovered his punch in 2008. In the past three years, Halladay has averaged 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. It’s not an overwhelming rate, to be sure, but Halladay piles up innings on an annual basis (has 220 or more innings pitched in five consecutive seasons).
2010 Strikeout Total: 219
2011 Strikeout Projection: 214
7. Justin Verlander, Detroit
Analysis: Verlander has been one of the most durable pitchers in the game for the past half-decade (with 210 2/3 innings per season). As a result, he regularly ranks among the leaders in the strikeout column. Verlander led all of Major League Baseball with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings during the 2009 season. He ranked fourth in this category last season, averaging 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010.
2010 Strikeout Total: 219
2011 Strikeout Projection: 212
8. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota
Analysis: Liriano completed the long road back from Tommy John surgery last year (I know he pitched in 2008 and 2009). He pitched a career-high 191 2/3 innings last season with 201 strikeouts (9.4 per nine IP). Liriano had produced a ridiculous strikeout rate of 10.7 per nine innings in 28 appearances prior to his injury in 2006.
2010 Strikeout Total: 201
2011 Strikeout Projection: 206
9. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
Analysis: Weaver performed magnificently for an otherwise underachieving Los Angeles squad in 2010. He pitched a career-high 224 1/3 innings and produced a career-best strikeout rate of 9.3 per nine innings. Weaver ranked ninth in the American League in that category 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 2008.
2010 Strikeout Total: 233
2011 Strikeout Projection: 205
10. Mat Latos, San Diego
Analysis: Latos exploded onto the scene in 2010 following his 10-game introduction to San Diego in 2009. He vastly improved his control while pumping up his strikeout rate. Latos averaged 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings last season and at least seven batters on 13 occasions (had 19 games with six or more strikeouts).
That’s just the ground floor as he enters his second full major league season. Latos celebrated his 23rd birthday in December.
2010 Strikeout Total: 189
2011 Strikeout Projection: 202
11. Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco
Analysis: Sanchez’s strikeout rate is maddening, to be sure, but his strikeout rate entices fantasy owners and helps to erase those mistakes. In the past two years, the 6-foot-2 lefty has averaged 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Sanchez posted a double-digit strikeout total in four games last season and struck out six or more batters in 25 of his 33 starts.
2010 Strikeout Total: 205
2011 Strikeout Projection: 199
12. Brandon Morrow, Toronto
Analysis: Morrow is one of the players generating buzz on the draft board this spring. His walk rate still has room for improvement, but Morrow’s strikeout rate jumped off of the page in his first season as a full-time starter. Morrow averaged 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings, a rate comparable to the game’s best hard-throwing closers.
You want more? Morrow averaged 13 strikeouts per nine innings in his final eight starts of the 2010 season.
2010 Strikeout Total: 178
2011 Strikeout Projection: 197
13. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee
Analysis: Gallardo’s inability to pitch deep into games is concerning, but he continues to deliver in the strikeout category. In the past two years, Gallardo has averaged 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. He’s ranked second in the National League in strikeout rate per nine innings in back-to-back seasons. Should Gallardo improve his control and stretch deeper into games, there’s upside in this category.
2010 Strikeout Total: 200
2011 Strikeout Projection: 194
14. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
Analysis: Sabathia’s strikeout rate isn’t overwhelming, but the veteran hurler logs a heavy annual workload. As such, he routinely ranks among the league leaders in this category. Sabathia has struck out at least 197 batters in four consecutive seasons. Sabathia has finished in the top 10 among American League pitchers in this category for seven of his nine full seasons in the American League. Remember, he struck out a career-high 251 batters in the 2008 season split between Cleveland and Milwaukee.
2010 Strikeout Total: 197
2011 Strikeout Projection: 192
15. Dan Haren, Arizona
Analysis: Haren struggled early in the 2010 season with Arizona, but he maintained a high-strikeout rate before moving to Los Angeles. Haren averaged only 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings with the Angels in 14 starts, so there is perhaps a concern given his low output in his earlier American League run with the A’s.
I’m not ready to dismiss his three-plus seasons in Arizona entirely. In the past four seasons, Haren has struck out at least 192 batters. He struck out 8.3 batters per nine innings during this period. I’ll anticipate a moderate regression in Haren’s strikeout rate this season, but his high-innings count keeps the total high.
2010 Strikeout Total: 216
2011 Strikeout Projection: 187
