It’s a simple enough question. The answer isn’t clear cut, even as we get caught up in the theatrics of a closer entering a game to a heavy metal song.
Who do you trust to close things out for your squad in 2011?
The specialization of bullpens and the proliferation of committee situations are sometimes dizzying. There’s constant movement on the closer carousel, as managers try to find the perfect fit and play to matchups. One week of bad outings can shift the landscape in a hurry.
Here’s my first look at the category, as we roll to the glory of Opening Day.
1. Brian Wilson, San Francisco
Analysis: Wilson’s name has been in the news in recent weeks as part of Charlie Sheen’s rants, and his beard has become a folk hero in and of itself. Of course, it helps that you’ve dominated out of the bullpen for the past three years. Wilson has converted 127-of-145 save opportunities as the full-time closer, including a career-best total of 48 in 2010. The stellar San Francisco rotation is back for another run with youngster Madison Bumgarner adding to the flurry of save opportunities.
2010 Save Total: 48
2011 Save Projection: 45
2. Joakim Soria, Kansas City
Analysis: Soria stands as proof that you need to ignore the insignia on the cap when considering this category. He has successfully converted 132-of-145 save opportunities since assuming the role in 2007, including two seasons in which he converted more than 40 saves (including 43 in 2010).
Forget that he pitches in Kansas City. Soria’s going to rack up opportunities for the Royals, even with ace Zach Greinke off to Milwaukee. Their wins don’t come easily, thereby presenting frequent chances for Soria to close out close games.
2010 Save Total: 43
2011 Save Projection: 44
3t. Neftali Feliz, Texas
Analysis: With everyone focused on the NFL labor issue and the unveiling of this year’s NCAA Tournament field, the confirmation of Feliz’s desire to remain the Texas closer went virtually unnoticed. Feliz converted 40-of-43 save opportunities in his first year in the role and mowed down opposing batters. Brandon Webb’s eventual return to the mound leaves me bullish on Feliz’s potential behind the powerful Texas lineup.
2010 Save Total: 40 2011 Save Projection: 43
3t. Heath Bell, San Diego
Analysis: Bell transitioned brilliantly from the setup role to closer in 2009 and has positively obliterated opposing batters. He’s converted 89-of-98 save opportunities in this period, including a total of 47 last season for the surprising 90-win Padres.
Fantasy owners are moderately concerned about Bell’s potential behind a punch-less San Diego offense that watched Adrian Gonzalez wave goodbye this off-season. Mat Latos and the rest of the starting rotation keep the Padres in games and put things into the hands of a fantastic bullpen. They don’t need to pile up a huge run total to win games (they won 90 games while ranking 22nd in runs scored last season).
Luke Gregorson is waiting in the wings. Bell is in the final year of his contract and could be on the market come the deadline.
2010 Save Total: 47 2011 Save Projection: 43
5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Analysis: Rivera remains the standard at the position, though the number of save opportunities he’s received has fluctuated in recent years. He did save 33 games in 2010, his 14th straight season of least 30 saves. Rivera had saved 44 and 39 games in the previous two seasons, respectively.
The back-end of the New York rotation remains a huge question mark entering the season. Still, unless there’s a huge breakdown from the veteran players, the Yankees will continue to mash their way into wins and opportunities for Rivera.
2010 Save Total: 33 2011 Save Projection: 41
6t. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston
Analysis: Papelbon posted the worst ERA and WHIP numbers of his career in 2010 and failed in eight of his 45 save opportunities last season. One particularly rough early-spring appearance is prompting speculation that he could be ousted as the Red Sox closer in short order. Bobby Jenks and Daniel Bard are waiting in the wings for the opportunity to slide into the role. There’s also the potential that he’s dealt along the way, as Papelbon is slated to become a free agent in 2012.
I’m not going to discount him entirely. Papelbon has saved an average of 37.6 games per season (with 42.6 save opportunities per season) for the Red Sox in the past five years. I would remiss if I failed to acknowledge Boston’s place as the favorite American League team.
2010 Save Total: 37
2011 Save Projection: 40
6t. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Analysis: You salivate over Marmol’s power pitching. You may wince when considering his walk rate. Marmol’s hit rate (4.6 per nine innings in 2010) thrusts him up your draft board.
Marmol has converted 53-of-62 attempts since being installed as the full-time closer for the Cubs in 2009. The addition of Matt Garza gives the Cubs another quality starter to push things to the bullpen.
2010 Save Total: 38
2011 Save Projection: 40
8t. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati
Analysis: In terms of full-on rankings, Cordero’s bloated ERA and WHIP numbers have to be considered. Here, it’s just a matter of receiving save opportunities and sweating that third out.
Cordero has saved at least 39 games in three of the past four seasons (had 34 saves in 2008). The Reds raced to the NL Central title in 2010, and they’re the early favorites for 2011 with Aroldis Chapman joining the bullpen. Here’s the question. Does Chapman eventually replace Cordero this season?
2010 Save Total: 40
2011 Save Projection: 37
8t. Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets
Analysis: Rodriguez missed the final six weeks of the 2010 season and still has legal battles to attend to as the regular season approaches. As such, there is a cloud hanging over his potential output for 2011. I would be remiss if I failed to acknowledge the team’s issues, including the likelihood that Johan Santana may not take the mound in 2011.
However, I can’t look past Rodriguez’s return to dominance and his best power numbers since 2006 entirely. Rodriguez saved 25-of-30 attempts, which is his lowest save total since taking the role in Anaheim during the 2004 season. Again, the team struggled, and he missed six weeks.
2010 Save Total: 25
2011 Save Projection: 37
10. Chris Perez, Cleveland
Analysis: As expected, Perez dominated once inserted into the closer role last season. He converted 23-of-27 save opportunities last season while earning a sub-2.00 ERA (1.71).
Forget about the cap. Forget about your concerns regarding the Cleveland rotation or what the final win count may be. Perez will factor into a large percentage of the Indians’ victories.
2010 Save Total: 23
2011 Save Projection: 36
11. John Axford, Milwaukee
Analysis: I’m excited to watch Axford’s first full season as the closer in Milwaukee. He vultured eight wins and saved 24 games in his first significant major-league action. Axford posted a ridiculous strikeout rate (11.7 per nine IP), a huge help to offset a high walk rate.
Regardless, he closes things out behind a strong lineup and welcomes the addition of Zach Greinke to the top of the rotation. He’s a big-time sleeper proposition for 2011.
2010 Save Total: 24
2011 Save Projection: 34
12t. Huston Street, Colorado
Analysis: When healthy, Street ranks among the top closing options in the game. He possesses great strikeout punch and finishes games. He converted 35-of-37 attempts for the Rockies in 2009 prior to yet another injury-marred season in 2010 (his first appearance occurred on June 23).
With Jimenez and De La Rosa located at the top of the rotation, Street’s going to have his chances. My main concern isn’t Street getting replaced in the role. My concern is that he won’t be able to answer the proverbial bell for some stretch of the season.
2010 Save Total: 20
2011 Save Projection: 33
12t. Kevin Gregg, Baltimore
Analysis: Koji Uehara’s health issues help to solidify Gregg’s place as the closer entering the season. He’s not your prototypical closer. Gregg’s walk rate always opens the door to potential disaster (1.3). Still, Gregg has successfully closed out 121-of-147 games for three different teams in the past four years.
The Orioles made a number of adjustments to bolster the offense this offseason. As a result, Baltimore should at least be able to keep pace with the runs allowed by a youthful starting rotation. I fear Uehara could potentially steal some of the workload down the line, but Gregg’s in place to get things started. Remember, George Sherrill was an All-Star for the Orioles a few years back.
2010 Save Total: 37
2011 Save Projection: 33
14. J.J. Putz, Arizona
Analysis: Putz pitched fantastically in middle relief for the White Sox in 2010. He struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings and earned another shot to close with Arizona in 2011. Remember, Putz saved 36 and 40 games in the 2006 and 2007 seasons for the Mariners, respectively.
2010 Save Total: 3
2011 Save Projection: 31
15. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
Analysis: Broxton returns to the closer role to open 2011 after being displaced last season. He pitched to a bloated 4.04 ERA; his hit rate soared to 9.2 hits allowed per nine innings pitched; and he blew seven save opportunities. Broxton did strike out 2.6 batters per walk issued.
Broxton has had some issues this spring, thereby putting Dodgers fans and fantasy owners on alert. He dominated in 2009 (with 36 saves in 42 chances), and there is some hope that he can regain his prior form. Broxton is going to get every chance to reclaim his job. As such, I’ll put him on the radar here behind a strong rotation and a lineup looking to bounce back from last year’s struggles.
2010 Save Total: 22
2011 Save Projection: 30
