Here are the National League predictions.
Atlanta: Nate McLouth will go 20-20.
Last season was a train wreck for McLouth. He had a concussion, spent more than a month in Triple A, and was an unmitigated disaster for his fantasy owners. As horrendous was his season, it was completely out of character with the previous three, and included a September (three homers, three steals and .887 OPS in 20 games) that provided a glimmer of hope. Call it a hunch, but McLouth looks like a great bounceback candidate. He’s being mostly ignored in standard leagues, too.
Arizona: Miguel Montero will hit 20 home runs.
It only took four games last year for Montero to hurt his knee, and he missed two months because of surgery. Montero was solid upon his return. Although he slumped late in the season, nine homers in 297 at bats aren’t too shabby. Also, while Montero shared time with Chris Snyder last season, his only roadblock to playing time this year is catch-and-throw (and occasionally hit a homer) Henry Blanco. Montero hit all nine of his home runs on the road last season, and that seems like a fluke considering his hitter-friendly home ballpark. Look for Montero to hit with enough power to justify his draft position as a starting fantasy catcher.
Cincinnati: Jay Bruce will hit 35 home runs.
Just as in the AL predictions, I’ve included a repeat entry from last season. Bruce only went deep 25 times, but 15 of them were in August and September. Bruce will turn 24 in April, and is just a couple of years removed from being considered baseball’s best prospect. The breakout is going to come sometime. I think it’s now.
Chicago Cubs: Carlos Marmol will save fewer than 30 games.
All spring, I’ve been curiously watching people rank and draft Marmol as one of fantasy’s top five closers. There’s no denying that he has ridiculous stuff, and his strikeout rate last season (138 K in 77 2/3 IP) was historically good. However, Marmol’s horrendous walk rates of 6.03 per nine innings last year and 7.91 in 2009 make him a risk to blow plenty of saves and put his job in danger. When drafting my No. 1 closer, I don’t want this kind of tightrope walker if I can avoid it. Marmol is too risky for me.
Colorado: Dexter Fowler will hit 10 homers, steal 30 bases and score 100 runs.
After returning from a trip to the minors, Fowler posted a .366 on-base percentage and scored 55 runs over his final 81 games in 2010. He also hit 15 doubles, 11 triples and five home runs in that span. At age 25, Fowler already has the plate discipline to help him get on base at a healthy clip, along with a history of big-time quickness in the minors. The Coors Field thing never hurts, either. I love this guy.
Florida: Mike Stanton will hit 40 home runs.
Stanton went deep 43 times between Double A and the majors last year; his power is immense. He whiffed in more than a third of his plate appearances with the Fish, and that will make his batting average a worry area. But if he doesn’t hit at least 30 homers this season, I’ll streak through my neighborhood like Will Ferrell in Old School.
Houston: Bill Hall will hit 20 home runs.
Hall is likely to be the Astros' starting second baseman after a nice season as a jack-of-all-trades with the Red Sox. Though he hasn’t broken the 20-homer barrier since slugging 35 with the Brewers in 2006, Hall has power and should benefit from the short left-field porch at Minute Maid Park. He’s not a No. 1 second baseman for fantasy owners, but he’s pretty close.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Chad Billingsley will win 18 games, and his ERA will be 3.25 or lower.
Billingsley’s ERA was 3.57 last season, and that’s pretty good at age 26. His ground ball rate went up; his walk rate went down; and he only allowed eight homers. But while that number is likely to rise, I still think we’re looking at a mini-breakout.
Milwaukee: Prince Fielder will hit 45 home runs.
Do you believe in contract drives? Me neither, but Fielder has averaged 38 homers in his five full seasons with totals of 28-50-34-46-32 over that span. His peripheral numbers in 2010 looked just like they always do. So he’s probably as likely to hit 35 as he is to hit 50. Let’s bet on Good Prince with a higher homer-to-fly-ball rate in 2011.
New York Mets: Jose Reyes will hit 15 home runs, steal 40 bases and score 100 runs.
Speaking of contract drives, Reyes’ biggest question is his health. He has appeared in just 169 games over the last two seasons. But over that span, he’s batted .282 with 13 home runs, 69 RBI, 101 runs scored and 41 stolen bases. If Reyes can stay on the field, which is no easy task for him these days, he’ll surpass those numbers without breaking a sweat.
Philadelphia: Brad Lidge will lose his job at some point.
Lidge should have lost his job in 2009 because he was awful. He spent two separate stints on the DL early in 2010, and had an up-and-down season after that. Lidge has always had wipeout stuff, but he walks too many batters and has all-too-frequent bouts with gopheritis. Something tells me that this is the year Charlie Manuel finally snaps during one of Lidge’s bad slumps and turns to the equally talented but more stable Ryan Madson.
Pittsburgh: Pedro Alvarez will hit 30 home runs.
Alvarez was called up from Triple A in mid-June to fulfill his blue-chip prospect destiny. He didn’t disappoint with 16 home runs, 64 RBI and a .788 OPS in 347 at bats. The 24-year-old third baseman swung at strike three far too often, but he went yard six times with a .932 OPS after September 1. You think that maybe he just started figuring things out at that point? Me too.
San Diego: Mat Latos’ ERA will be below 3.00 again.
Latos is a stud, a beast and an ace at age 23. He also pitches home games in the friendliest pitcher’s park in the world. Why worry? Well, Latos did go over his projected workload limit by throwing 184 2/3 innings. The Padres probably would have shut him down earlier if it wasn’t for that pesky pennant race. Still, his numbers in both the majors and minors scream “special.” If you draft Latos, enjoy the ride and thank the Lord every day for PETCO Park.
San Francisco: Aubrey Huff will hit fewer than 20 home runs and drive in fewer than 80 runs.
Two words: Brandon Belt. The Giants’ 23-year-old first baseman is good enough to force his way to the majors within a month or two. When that happens, Huff will probably spend much of his time in left field. Huff can look forward to being replaced for defensive purposes on a regular basis, and getting some off days so that Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand don’t get green and moldy on the bench. Yes, I know Huff signed a two-year, $22 million contract in the offseason. He’s still riskier than some people think.
St. Louis: David Freese will hit 20 home runs.
Instead of being redundant, I’ll just refer you back to my recent positional bargains article. Freese has a track record of power, and if Tony La Russa doesn’t play lineup musical chairs with him, he could be a nice late-round bargain.
Washington: Drew Storen will save 35 games.
I thought about making this one “Nyjer Morgan will become a benchwarmer,” but nobody is drafting him, anyway (Morgan’s ADP on Mock Draft Central was 360 thru March 6). Storen gets batters out with a mid-90s heater and a good slider. At just age 23, the Nationals are handing him the keys to the ninth inning. He’s being drafted as the 16th closer per ADP, but he’s as likely to save a ton of games as most of the 10 guys above him. Stephen Strasburg wasn’t the only really good pitcher the Nats drafted in the first round of 2009.
