Welcome to the fourth annual installment of my “bold predictions” columns, in which I make educated guesses about fantasy stats for a player on every MLB team.
The basic idea is for the predictions to have no better than a 50-50 chance (usually less) to be correct, with some having longer odds than others. The predictions are not guarantees, and should be viewed more as an indication of my feelings about certain players.
Since there are 30 MLB teams, 15 points or more is the goal. However, that goal has proven elusive in the past:
2008: 11 1/3
2009: 10 1/3
2010: 7 1/2
A secondary goal is to never again make a prediction as bad as “Wily Mo Pena will hit 35 home runs,” like in 2008. Let’s get started: 15 points or bust!
Baltimore: J.J. Hardy will hit 20 home runs
Hardy hit 26 homers in 2007, 24 in 2008, 11 in 2009 and six in 2010. Will the real Hardy please stand up? Well, he actually went deep 15 times in 2009, with four of those coming during a brief banishment to Triple A. Last year, Hardy suffered a wrist injury in May that sent him to the DL and sapped his power. In Baltimore, a big bounceback could be in the cards. I may have underrated him in the rankings.
Boston: Dustin Pedroia will go 20-20.
I also think Pedroia will bat around .310 with 110 runs scored, but let’s leave the prediction as is. The guy my buddy Tim calls “that jockey on the Red Sox” is a terrific player in both real life and fantasy. He could push Robinson Cano for the top spot at the fantasy keystone next spring, and those are big words coming from this Yankees fan about that little guy.
Chicago White Sox: Gordon Beckham will hit 20 home runs.
Though he was one of 2010’s biggest disappointments, Beckham certainly shouldn’t be written off at age 24. As a rookie in 2009, the slugger-in-waiting ripped 14 home runs in just 378 at bats. Last year, he was learning to play a new position in his first full season as a big leaguer, and that certainly could have affected his hitting. The numbers suggest that Beckham got more comfortable as the year went on. He hit seven of his nine homers after July 1, and posted an .877 OPS after the All-Star break (it was a putrid .581 before). Maybe the breakout was just delayed by one year.
Cleveland: Carlos Santana will be a better fantasy catcher than Buster Posey.
I’ve got Posey ranked fourth and Santana fifth among the catchers, but most ranking lists and average draft positions show a wider disparity. The fantasy world LOVES Posey (ADP: 48) while only liking Santana (ADP: 127). Other than concerns about Santana’s knee injury – which doesn’t seem to be a problem now – there’s nothing in either player’s history to suggest that Posey is a better hitter. They’re close, but Posey is more highly regarded because he has a shiny World Series ring. Santana’s about to join the stud catcher conversation, so get on the bandwagon.
Detroit: Alex Avila will hit 15 home runs.
Avila hit 17 homers between the minors and majors in 2009, and slugged seven last season in just 294 at-bats. Victor Martinez is now a Tiger, but the team plans to use him mostly as a DH. The door is open for the 24-year-old Avila to make a fantasy impact. Even though he has similar power to other second-tier backstops, his batting average could be better.
Kansas City: Alcides Escobar will steal 35 bases.
Escobar stole 46 bases between Triple A and the majors in 2009, so he’s got more speed than his 10 swipes last year would suggest. Unfortunately, all sorts of things went wrong for him last season in Milwaukee, from bad luck (.264 BABIP) to batting eighth (where it’s hard to steal bases with the pitcher hitting) to a horrendous .614 OPS. Escobar certainly needs to improve, but even if he only takes a small step forward at the plate this season, he’s likely to steal plenty of bases. Manager Ned Yost says he wants his team to run more, to the point where even first baseman Billy Butler (!!!) swiped a bag in a Cactus League game this week, and said he’s got a green light to go when he wants. Escobar’s too fast to keep looking so slow, especially on this team.
Los Angeles Angels: Fernando Rodney will lose the closer’s job – permanently – by the All-Star break.
Most closers are flawed – that’s why they’re not starters. But Rodney is really sketchy. His strikeout rate in 2010 (had 53 K in 68 IP) was the lowest of his career, and his rate of 4.6 walks per nine innings was terrible. Rodney clearly made a deal with the devil to save 37 games in 38 opportunities for the Tigers in 2009. The Halos have plenty of alternatives in their bullpen – including Jordan Walden, Kevin Jepsen, Scott Downs and former Mets Hisanori Takahashi – so Mike Scioscia will have plenty to choose from when he loses his patience with Rodney.
Minnesota: Justin Morneau will hit 25 homers or less, even if he’s healthy.
I’m not worried about Morneau’s recovery from concussion-related symptoms. I’m worried about Target Field, which seemed to hurt lefthanded hitters in its inaugural season. Before getting hurt, Morneau hit 14 of his 18 home runs on the road, and Joe Mauer’s power tanked as well. Maybe that was a one-year blip for a new stadium … and maybe it wasn’t.
New York Yankees: Jesus Montero will be a lineup regular (or close to it) in the second half of the season.
The 21-year-old Montero was briefly projected as the Yankees’ everyday catcher before Russell Martin was signed as a free agent. Montero appears headed for a return engagement at Triple-A Scranton after tearing up the International League with a .351 batting average and a 1.080 OPS after the All-Star break in 2010. He could force his way to the Bronx in short order, and the only thing standing between him and regular at bats will be the declining Jorge Posada, who is closing in on his 40th birthday and has a stick that plays better at catcher than in his new DH role. The stars may align for Montero to be a very interesting second-half fantasy player.
Note: Montero’s defense is very suspect, so I doubt the Yanks would make him their regular catcher in a playoff race, even if Martin doesn’t hit. You never know, though.
Oakland: Gio Gonzalez will strike out 200 batters.
Gonzalez’s 3.23 ERA last season has some luck to thank, and while that number is likely to go up, it should still be pretty good. His strikeout rate dropped from its usual heights last season, apparently because of an effort to throw more strikes. Gonzalez’s control did improve, but his stuff is so good that it’s hard to see him going through life trying to pitch to contact. Sure, I’ll cop to being swayed on this prediction by Gonzalez’s two-inning, five-strikeout Cactus League start this week. Who wouldn’t? I can get irrationally excited about a spring performance just like anyone else, dammit!
Seattle: Justin Smoak will bat .270 and hit 25 home runs.
Smoak struggled in both Texas and Seattle last season, but his minor-league track record, though brief, suggests a disciplined hitter with plenty of power. Scouts have compared Smoak to Mark Teixeira, and that’s high praise. Safeco Field is no friend to power hitters, but Smoak has the tools to start making people understand why the Mariners took him in exchange for Cliff Lee – instead of accepting a package from the Yankees that was headlined by Montero.
Tampa Bay: Jeremy Hellickson will be the team’s best fantasy starter.
Don’t laugh – this could happen, even if it’s the longest shot on the board. David Price is certainly the Rays’ ace, but for all his crazy, nasty stuff, he probably needs to throw more strikes to come close to repeating his 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The projection systems have Price in the 3.40-3.50 range, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Hellickson looked great in his brief debut with the Rays last season after toying with Triple-A hitters (12-3, 2.45 ERA). He has very good stuff along with a “knows how to pitch” reputation. He could become a stud, and quickly.
Texas: Josh Hamilton will play fewer than 120 games.
This prediction is a double-down from last season, when Hamilton teased me by playing in 133 games. He’s injury-prone, and I don’t trust him one bit. I don’t care if he’s the feel-good story of the century.
Toronto: Frank Francisco will save 30 games.
Francisco doesn’t have the closer’s job yet, as he’ll have to win a spring training competition against Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch. With that said, Frankie Frank appears to be the favorite, and if he gets the ninth-inning role he’s good enough to succeed. He saved 25 games for the Rangers in 2009 when his total was held down by three trips to the DL. Since second closers are crapshoots anyway, why not gamble on Francisco to stay healthy for one year? He’s struck out 10 batters per nine innings in his career, for crying out loud.
