It’s time for my annual Top 100 starting pitchers list.
A few notes about the list:
It’s geared towards standard 5x5 roto leagues.
It’s more a list for non-keeper formats.
I started with the RotoWire standard cheatsheet and moved guys up and down as I saw fit.
I’m slotting Neftali Feliz as a starter because that’s where I think he ultimately plays come April, though I’m open to being proven wrong. A healthy Adam Wainwright likely ranks No. 2 on this list, but an out-for-the-year Wainwright won’t be drafted outside of keeper leagues.
Top 50
1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia: I suppose I should find something negative to say about the reigning NL Cy Young winner who finished with a 1.1 BB/9. How about workload?: 239-plus innings in each of the last three seasons. Are you going to bet against him though? Not me.
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle: Incredible to think he's two years younger than Tim Lincecum but has more than 330 more big-league innings. Can he top last year, though?
3. Jon Lester, Boston: Projecting him to lead the AL in strikeouts and wins. Yeah, that's probably a guy you want to target.
4. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: Cut his BB/9 to 3.0 after the break. Don't worry about the poor outing on Tuesday: there's hardware in his near future.
5. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco: If he can cut the walks, he'd jump to a top-three pitcher. Even then, he's still quite good, obviously.
6. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia: I've made no bones about it: I love Hamels this year, and he's one guy in whom I do put stock into the "best shape of his life / looks great in camp" story.
7. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia: A 185:18 K:BB is pretty good folks. Expect a little regression, but only because I'm pretty sure he's somewhat human.
8. David Price, Tampa Bay: Please … no need to bring up the "but he pitches in the AL East" takes. ERAs last year against AL East opponents: Baltimore: 0.60, Boston: 2.61, New York Yankees: 4.39, Toronto: 0.58. Had 79:28 K:BB in 93.1 innings vs. those opponents as well. At age 24 last year, Price saw his average fastball jump two miles per hour to 95.3.
9. Matt Cain, San Francisco: Three recent scoreless innings should put elbow soreness concerns to bed. Cain is one of baseball's more reliable workhorses, and he took a big step forward last year in terms of his control. He entered 2010 with a career BB/9 rate of 3.6 but posted a 2.5 mark last season.
10. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels: The fact that at age 30 Haren has already been traded three times is rather curious. But the bottom line for fantasy owners: three straight 200-plus strikeout seasons and a 1.19 career WHIP. You know what you're getting here, particularly in light of his six consecutive seasons of at least 33 starts.
11. Mat Latos, San Diego: Probably won't be any pseudo-innings limits for Latos this year. With his stuff, he could put up Cy Young numbers pitching in the NL West. At age 23, he’s coming off a year in which he posted a 9.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9, Latos is poised to become a top-10 fantasy pitcher, if not more.
12. Justin Verlander, Detroit: Verlander wasn't quite as good last year as in 2009. His K/9 rate dipped from 10.1 to 8.8, but his velocity held steady. Verlander actually saw fewer hard hit balls off his stuff. At age 28, he'll be just fine again in 2011.
13. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado: He was 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA at the break, then Jimenez went just 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA for the rest of the way. This strikeout rate actually increased after the break, but his walk rate turned the wrong direction. Jimenez's final start was an 8-3-0-0-2-10 gem, so we won't worry. He should be among the league's best again in 2011.
14. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: Sabathia has averaged 20 wins and 197 strikeouts in his two years in pinstripes. This year should be interesting, as Sabathia lost a reported 30 pounds in the offseason. This is a move designed to prevent his troublesome knee (had offseason surgery) from becoming an issue later in his career.
15. Josh Johnson, Florida: I still have that 2007 Tommy John surgery in the back of my mind and shoulder/back injuries limited Johnson to 28 starts last year. That knocks him down somewhat on this list. But if he’s healthy, 200 strikeouts to 50 walks is a potential ratio for Johnson.
16. Zack Greinke, Milwaukee: Value takes a hit with the rib injury, but he should still be good for 30 starts of sub-3.00 ERA ball. Factor in an excellent offense and a favorable league change, and Greinke could be 95 percent of what he was in his Cy Young year.
17. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels: He pitched 13.1 innings more than he had in 2009, and Weaver struck out 59 more batters in 2010. He actually led the majors in that category with 233 strikeouts. Weaver is also a flyball pitcher, so adding Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos defensively should help quite a bit.
18. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta: Is a big guy and has elite stuff , so is he ready for a breakout? If he can refine his command (not that it's awful), Hanson could find himself in the top 10 or 15 on this list come 2011.
19. Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee: Moving out of the AL East where he posted a very respectable 3.64 ERA, Marcum is a candidate for the 2011 most improved fantasy pitcher with the move to the NL Central. I could easily see 200 strikeouts this year.
20. Max Scherzer, Detroit: A stint in Triple-A caused Scherzer to return to Detroit as a changed man. The ex-Diamondback posted a 2.47 ERA in 15 starts after the All-Star break. He should easily be a top-20 fantasy pitcher this year.
21. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota: Four years after Tommy John surgery, Liriano is finally close to being back to the guy we saw as an in-his-prime Johan Santana at one point. Liriano struck out 201 batters while improving his velocity a full two miles per hour and improving his GB%. Liriano, though, has been dealing with a sore shoulder this spring, so knock him down a couple notches as a precaution.
22. Tim Hudson, Atlanta: He's not a top fantasy pitcher because of the strikeout rate that hovers in the 5.5-K/9 range. But Hudson should again be a solid ERA guy for the Braves and fantasy owners. Where Hudson excels is when batters make contact as last year. Hudson's 64.1 GB% and 13.6-percent line-drive rate were both the league's best.
23. Clay Buchholz, Boston: Buchholz has increased his velocity in each of the last three seasons, so his so-so 6.2 K/9 remains puzzling. Factor in a low .265 BABIP, and I'm worried he'll regress this year. On the flip side, he's still just age 26, so expect some further development this year.
24. Dan Hudson, Arizona: It was a nice move by Arizona getting Hudson, who is a younger, cheaper and better pitcher than the traded Edwin Jackson. Hudson offers excellent command and the ability to approach 180 strikeouts. He does give up a few flyballs, something that could be troubling in Chase Field, but, as a whole, he's a nice sleeper.
25. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia: It’s not a bad rotation when your No. 4 guy posts a 3.50ish ERA with more than 170 strikeouts. Not having to front a rotation any longer could take off any pressure Oswalt may be feeling.
26. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis: Troubles with the long ball hit Carpenter last year, resulting in a near full-run spike in his ERA. He also turns age 36 in April and has been dealing with hamstring issues this spring. That said, when healthy, he should be among the league's top hurlers again in 2011.
27. John Danks, Chicago White Sox: Guessing the Rangers would take back the Brandon McCarthy-Danks trade if they could. Danks turns 26 in mid-April and appears primed for a career year after setting career highs last year in multiple categories: wins, innings and strikeouts among them. A 6.9 K/9 isn't among the league's elite ratios, but there's probably a little room for growth in that number.
28. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee: Cut down that .340 BABIP, and Gallardo's 2010 looks better. As it was, having a 3.84 ERA and 9.7 K/9 aren't too shabby. Just needs to refine command.
29. Ricky Romero, Toronto: A 3.5 BB/9 isn't great, but Romero did show growth in his peripherals in 2010. At the tender age of 26, he's just getting started.
30. Brandon Morrow, Toronto: I usually make it a rule to really like pitchers who strike out 11 per nine innings. Morrow's command got better as the season progressed. If he can knock down that 4.1 BB/9 into the 3.5 range, he'll push for top-15 starter status.
31. Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers: He’s looking to mix in a changeup more this year, which is a move that could put him in the top 20-25 fantasy starters. His 3.2 BB/9 was a career low.
32. Brett Anderson, Oakland: Elbow problems that limited him to 19 starts a year ago are all that kept me from putting Anderson in my top-20. Upgrades on offense and defense should help Anderson to a career year if healthy.
33. Colby Lewis, Texas: Having 196 strikeouts does not equal to a fluke. He had 1.37 and 0.97 BB/9s in each of his prior two years in Japan. So if he can channel that sort of control, look out.
34. Trevor Cahill, Oakland: Peripherals do portend a downfall, but his success at a young age gives us some optimism that Cahill will offset some of that decline with future growth.
35. Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs: It’s hard to not like a guy with his stuff escaping the AL East grind. He's just entering his prime.
36. Ricky Nolasco, Florida: Has great peripherals but a high ERA in one year could be a fluke. Yet Nolasco has done it in back-to-back seasons. Is he this decade's Javier Vazquez or is Nolasco just unlucky? I'll guess the latter and say his ERA threatens to finish less than 4.00 this year. Package that with 180-200 strikeouts, and you have a nice bargain.
37. Ted Lilly, Los Angeles Dodgers: Lilly has vastly improved his command for the last two years. In his 12-start stint with the Dodgers last year, Lilly struck out 77 batters in 76.2 innings. As a flyball pitcher, Lilly has to be rooting for Tony Gwynn Jr. to spend significant time in the Dodgers outfield.
38. Philip Hughes, New York Yankees: A 4.90 post-break ERA derailed Hughes' first full year as a starter, so let's see how he responds in Year 2. He'll either be a slightly overhyped Yankees prospect but a solid No. 3 level starter. Or, considering he's still just 24, he could take a big step forward this year.
39. Josh Beckett, Boston: His concussion was a slight setback, but he's my leading candidate for a bounce-back year. Even in an off year, Beckett still had an 8.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Expect both to be better in 2011, particularly the latter metric.
40. Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay: I like his skillset quite a bit (with his elite command and three-plus offerings), but let's stop the Greg Maddux comparisons please.
41. Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco: "If only he could improve his command ...". Weren't we saying that about Daniel Cabrera for several years? Sanchez should continue to show flashes of brilliance, but until we see it in the numbers, figure on far too many walks yet again.
42. Javier Vazquez, Florida: Elbow soreness is worth monitoring. But assuming it's minor, I fail to see anything worse than a sub-4.00 ERA for Vazquez in his return to the NL.
43. Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers: Kuroda had his best year in 2010. After being brought back on a one-year deal, I'd expect more of the same.
44. Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels: The long ball is the only thing holding Santana back from being a top-30 starter, and that's not something that is normally easily correctable. The key now is seeing whether he can post back-to-back solid seasons.
45. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs: Hopefully the BB/9 jump (2.9 to 3.6) turns around in 2011. Otherwise, he's a solid mid-round option as a pitcher who increased his strikeout rate as a full point in 2010.
46. Ian Kennedy, Arizona: His 7.8 K/9 was more than I would have expected from him last year, and Kennedy should provide more of the same. Won't be a guy who takes a huge leap towards stardom.
47. Travis Wood, Cincinnati: Minor-league numbers actually translated quite well to his 17 big-league starts. Pretty sure he wins a rotation spot along with Homer Bailey.
48. Wandy Rodriguez, Houston: He’s dealing with a sore shoulder, but that appears minor. He’s a solid reliable option, but considering he's 32, the rebuilding Astros have to consider trading him, right?
49. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis: He’s yet another year removed from 2008 Tommy John surgery. I have to wonder if Garcia's 3.5 BB/9 doesn't show some improvement this season. Expect his ERA to top 3.00 this year, but check out that GB% and invest.
50. Gio Gonzalez, Oakland: Has just one run in 9.1 innings with a 13:3 K:BB this spring. Opportunity is there for a breakout, but command issues mitigate some of that excitement.
Next 50
51. Anibal Sanchez, Florida: He’s the best pitcher in the game of those who had once tore their labrum, if I'm not mistaken.
52. C.J. Wilson, Texas: Maybe second full year as a starter will allow him to see a dip in BB rate.
53. Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado: Strikeouts are enticing, but can he do it over 180 innings?
54. Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati: Has become surprisingly consistent.
55. Tim Stauffer, San Diego : Shoulder issues discovered during the draft are ancient history, as Stauffer has surprised most observers by becoming a legitimate No. 3 level starter. In PETCO Park, that's a pitcher worth grabbing. One caveat is that Stauffer accumulated just 100 innings between the rotation and bullpen last season, so it's an open question on whether he can handle a starter's workload in 2011.
56. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco: Should be interesting to see what he can do over a full year. Expect the Giants to exercise some caution.
57. Neftali Feliz, Texas: No decisions yet, but all signs point to Feliz joining the rotation.
58. Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox: His season-long consistency has proved elusive so far.
59. Jordan Zimmermann, Washington: Has yet to allow a run this spring, but do the Nats limit him to 160 innings and play more for 2012?
60. Joel Pineiro, Los Angeles Angels: I normally don't target low-K guys, but GB% contributes to solid ERA.
61. Wade Davis, Tampa Bay : He's not Hellickson, but he may ultimately be better than Niemann.
62. John Lackey, Boston: I'm optimistic, but there are simply quite a few pitchers I'd rather invest in.
63. Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati: Velocity was there, but control wasn't in his return from Tommy John surgery. We'll see what happens in '11.
64. James McDonald, Pittsburgh: Had flashes of brilliance, but that over 190 innings? TBD.
65. Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs: Can't stomach the walks, but he's an interesting pitcher this year.
66. Bud Norris, Houston: Had a 9.3 K/9 but recorded a 4.5 BB/9. Like him more in keeper formats, but K's are nice.
67. Brian Matusz, Baltimore: Expect strides, but a breakout is 2-3 years down the road.
68. Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado: Misses bats and induces grounders. Always a nice combination.
69. Clayton Richard, San Diego: He's not your typical soft-tossing lefty. K-rate is actually fairly good.
70. Brett Myers, Houston: He’s a solid reliable arm with an above-average strikeout rate at this point in his career.
71. Carl Pavano, Minnesota: Has he actually become reliable? I say yes.
72. Brett Cecil, Toronto: Has a 1.84 ERA in 34 innings against the Yankees. Could be 15 spots higher on this list last year.
73. James Shields, Tampa Bay: Should improve ERA considering 8.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Homers still an issue, though.
74. Jonathon Niese, New York Mets: Has some upside, but expect the Mets to be brutal.
75. Derek Holland, Texas: Can't imagine he goes to the pen in favor of Neftali Feliz.
76. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati: Seems to have a lead on a rotation spot but may need a strong finish to be secure.
77. Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox: Has a 9.2 K/9 in 11 starts with the Sox last year. He’s pretty reliable these days.
78. Michael Pineda, Seattle: Looks like he's making the club. Is a top-five pitching prospect in the game right now.
79. Derek Lowe, Atlanta: He’s still good for wins, innings and a decent ERA.
80. Brian Duensing, Minnesota: He’s not a big strikeout guy, but has solid command and GB% gives him value.
81. Dallas Braden, Oakland: Perfecto aside, he's become a pretty reliable AL-only option.
82. J.A. Happ, Houston: Command should improve this year. But he’s not the most exciting option, is he?
83. Aaron Harang, San Diego: I've lost the love, but I do love his new park.
84. Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox: Let other owners go here, as I'd prefer to see how a healthy Peavy's stuff looks.
85. Kyle Drabek, Toronto: Don't expect greatness this year.
86. Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta: Didn't seem right all year last year, but appears healthy now. Had a nice start on Sunday.
87. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati: No longer has the upside we saw in him three years ago.
88. Rick Porcello, Detroit: Is this the year he starts striking guys out? I have my doubts.
89. Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets: Will never live up to top-10 draft status, but should settle in as a Nos. 3 or 4 type.
90. Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore: He’s an old guy in a rotation filled with young guns. Should be his last season in Baltimore.
91. Jason Hammel, Colorado: Just watched the Rangers dismantle him on Wednesday, but we'll keep him here, anyways.
92. Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox: He’s good for innings and ERA, but not much else.
93. Tommy Hunter, Texas: Probably makes the rotation, but perhaps only until Brandon Webb is ready.
94. Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland: He’s one of the few Indians starters whom I would actually watch.
95. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets: We'll see how flukish that was last year.
96. Mike Minor, Atlanta: Seems to be Atlanta's No. 5 starter.
97. Randy Wolf, Milwaukee: I think we'll see a rebound this year.
98. Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs: Has been good enough this spring to win a job.
99. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay: Hasn't lived up to No. 1 overall pick status but he still has value.
100. A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees: Because someone had to be No. 100. Strikeout potential . Yes. A pitcher I'd prefer on another owner's team? Yes.
Moving up
Brandon Morrow, Toronto
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee
Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati
Brett Cecil, Toronto
James Shields, Tampa Bay
Moving down
Ted Lilly, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ian Kennedy, Arizona
Travis Wood, Cincinnati
Tim Stauffer, San Diego
Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore
Just missed
Kevin Slowey, Minnesota
Joe Blanton, Philadelphia
Fausto Carmona, Cleveland
Jake Arrietta, Baltimore
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston
See you next year
Stephen Strasburg, Washington: I’m already looking forward to Opening Day 2012.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis: Monitor recovery and stash in keeper leagues.
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati (?): His 105 miles per hour in the pen becomes 96-99 in the rotation. Not bad.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta: Braves learned lesson with Neftali Feliz. Teheran isn’t getting traded.
John Lamb, Kansas City: Is best of a quartet of impressive young Kansas City left-handers.
Manny Banuelos, New York Yankees: Is he too young for pinstripes?
