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We got off to a good start last week, with our ten picks going 6-3-1, toss in the opening Friday night game that I gave you the over in Hawaii vs. California from down in Australia and we're 7-3-1 on the season. (We pushed in the over/under of UCLA-A&M, although many of you got a better number than I did so lots of you finished week one 8-2). The toughest loss was the under in the Alabama-USC game. I predicted that Alabama would dominate and win 31-6. So I nailed the USC score, I was just wrong about how many USC would allow Alabama to score.
We also had Ole Miss -4.5 and I thought we were a lock when Ole Miss scored to go up 28-6 late in the first half. At that point we had a 26.5 point cushion. Hopefully some of you hedged at halftime. Because Florida State destroyed Ole Miss in the second half and we ended up losing that bet. The only game we totally whiffed on was LSU-Wisconsin, a contest I'm still trying to figure out. What in the world happened here? I still don't know. After a season in which LSU promised us that everything would be different with their offense, the Tigers scored just seven offensive points and looked completely awful.
Regardless, it's hard to quibble with a 7-3 start to the gambling season.
Week two doesn't offer that many intriguing games. Outkick will be in Bristol, arriving Friday afternoon, for Woodstock meets college football.
I can't wait for the game and to meet a bunch of you guys as well.
But the result of a really weak slate in college football is that we only have nine picks to make you filthy rich this weekend.
Here they are:
Arkansas +7.5 vs. TCU and the over 58.5
Last week Arkansas was awful and TCU wasn't very good either. TCU gave up 41 points to South Dakota State and Arkansas needed a late fourth quarter touchdown to escape Louisiana Tech 21-20. Alarmingly, for Arkansas fans, the Razorbacks were unable to run the football, notching just 106 yards on forty carries.
This line initially opened at TCU -10 and I tweeted to grab it and it has since settled here just above a touchdown.
I think both of these teams are going to score quite a bit -- which is why I'm taking the over too -- but ultimately I think this is a field goal game.
I think TCU wins 35-31.
Bang, you get the Arkansas cover and the over.
Kentucky +17 vs. Florida and the over 47.5
Kentucky has not beaten Florida in 29 straight years and this year the Gators try to make it thirty in a row.
Thirty!
How tough is it to be a Kentucky fan? Since 1987 Kentucky is 1-57 combined against Tennessee and Florida, with the only win coming in 2011, when Kentucky beat Tennessee 10-7.
But in the past two years Kentucky has flirted with ending the streak against Florida, losing 14-9 last year and 36-30 in triple overtime two years ago.
Last week Kentucky lost 44-35 giving up 34 straight points to its former offensive coordinator after going up 35-10 in the game. So everyone is convinced Kentucky is total garbage, even Mark Stoops.
Meanwhile, Florida fought through an ugly effort against UMASS to notch a 24-7 home win -- it was 10-7 at the half and just 13-7 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter -- but most people didn't notice this struggle because it came on a day when so many bigger games were being played.
I think this is a classic case of overreaction. Kentucky's not as bad as the Wildcats looked in the second half and this team knows, based on the past two seasons, that it can play with Florida.
So I love Kentucky +17 here and also really like the over 47.5 because it's so low.
If I'm horribly wrong here, and Kentucky gets blown out, then you probably hit the over and split your bets. But if I'm right and this game is fairly even before the Gators pull away 31-21 late, then you win both.
A double win! (You can definitely brag about this win if it happens because everyone else on earth is going to be on Florida.)
Western Kentucky +28.5 at Alabama and the over 58.5
The most underrated coach in college football is probably Western Kentucky's Jeff Brohm who broke in a new quarterback and saw him go 25-31 for 517 yards against Rice.
LSU fans are quietly weeping when they see this.
Meanwhile we all saw what Alabama did to USC. My blood bank guarantee this week is the over 58.5 in this game. I think Western will score at least 20 on Alabama and the Tide will notch 45 in a game that will be fast paced and feature a ton of possessions.
Bang, that's 65 points.
I don't think it will ever be that close because Nick Saban's teams are football robots, but this is the perfect trap game for Alabama. Win a huge opener against USC and then next week is an opportunity to repay Ole Miss for two straight losses. Stuck right in the middle? Western Kentucky at home.
So I like WKU +28.5 and, time for the transfusion!, I like the over 58.5 as my BLOOD BANK GUARANTEE of the week.
MTSU at Vanderbilt, the under 45
Last year MTSU and Vandy played in Murfreesboro and it was one of the worst college football games ever played.
The final score was 17-13, Vandy, and it was 6-3 at the half.
If there's one thing that the Derek Mason tenure has taught us, it's this -- Vandy is going to be awful on offense, but really good on defense. Last week MTSU played Alabama A&M so it's essentially impossible to tell what in the world their team will look like.
Just bet on the defense.
The under is the easy play here.
South Carolina at Mississippi State, the under 44.5
Did you watch these two teams play in week one? I did.
Neither team can score, not even against each other.
Rather than try to figure out who is going to win this drunken, pathetic fight, let's just sit this game out, take the under and wait to see who emerges with a 13-10 victory.
Tennessee -11.5 vs. Virginia Tech
This pick is a bit counterintuitive because the Vols looked awful in week one.
But since the Vols opened -10 money has been coming in on Tennessee. I don't think that's UT fan money, I think it's gamblers who believe Tennessee opened a bit lower than expected after an awful performance in week one against Appy State.
I happen to think Appy State is pretty good and that Tennessee will play really well in front of the largest crowd to watch a college football game in the history of football.
In fact, I think Tennessee will win by over two touchdowns, 35-20.
...
Here you go, kids, 9-0 is coming.
Get rich.
