With selection Sunday two days away, the college football bowl scene in the Valley has already begun to take shape and could once again feature a national-championship-caliber game.
Two weeks ago, No. 1 Kansas State and No. 2 Oregon appeared headed for a meeting in the national championship game in Miami -- until both lost on the same day. Miami's loss could be Arizona's gain.
Fiesta Bowl executive director Robert Shelton said Thursday all signs point to the bowl game, played Jan. 3 at University of Phoenix Stadium, selecting the fifth-ranked Ducks.
"We take into account the record of the team, the quality of their opposition, strength of schedule, the excitement the team brings and the potential for a lot of fans coming here," Shelton said. "When you put that all together, it really points us strongly toward Oregon."
Shelton also said Oregon's 11-1 record and exciting offense make it an attractive pick, as does the strength with which Ducks fans traveled to the Valley for the 2011 BCS national championship game, which was also played at University of Phoenix Stadium.
"Oregon is a very exciting possibility," Shelton said.
The other side of the matchup is less clear at this point because it is determined by a Big 12 tie-in that brings the conference champion to Arizona. Shelton said he and the rest of the Fiesta Bowl selection committee will be paying close attention to No. 6 Kansas State's game with No. 18 Texas on Saturday. A win would seal the Wildcats' spot as the Fiesta Bowl host team.
Kansas State offers a number of appealing qualities for the Fiesta Bowl, including its former No. 1 ranking and a Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Collin Klein.
"I think they would be extraordinary if they are the Big 12 champ," Shelton said. "They would sell a lot of tickets to their own folks. I think it would be a real excitement for their fans, and I think it would be a real attractor for people in the Valley."
A Kansas State loss on Saturday could change things. No. 11 Oklahoma plays earlier in the day Saturday and with a win would position itself for a Fiesta Bowl berth in the event of a Kansas State loss.
The Sooners have played bowl games in the Valley in four of the last six seasons, including three Fiesta Bowls. That familiarity, Shelton said, can sometimes lead to what he called "bowl fatigue," but Shelton said he has not heard any such talk from Oklahoma officials.
"The thing about Oklahoma is they are such a storied program," Shelton said. "They just have, as few programs do, national recognition, national appeal over the decades. I'm not worried as much about bowl fatigue as some might be because it is Oklahoma, and I think we'd put together a good matchup for them."
However, a report in The Oklahoman this week indicated the Sooners would like to avoid another Fiesta Bowl by working a trade to the Sugar Bowl. Such a trade would depend on the team taking OU's place and would also buck the Fiesta Bowl's preference for keeping the Big 12 tie-in intact.
"We like to stay true to the conference, and we like to have the conference champion," Shelton said. "If there is any kind of trade, it would have to be led by the Big 12 office, I think. But I think it's premature to be worried about that."
Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione later said a trade was unlikely should Oklahoma find itself Fiesta Bowl-bound, but he did not rule out the possibility.
The Valley's other bowl game offers far less clarity. Formerly the Insight Bowl, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl could also be affected by games played this weekend. The bowl, played Dec. 29 at Sun Devil Stadium, has tie-ins with the Big Ten and Big 12.
On the Big Ten side of the matchup, Shelton said three teams remain on the table: Michigan State, Minnesota and Purdue. MSU has been projected as the heavy favorite, but the Big Ten championship game between Wisconsin and Nebraska this weekend could shake up the conference's bowl picture.
Should the Spartans land a spot in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, it would be their first ever bowl game in the Valley
"Not only have they not been here, but that's a team at least recently hasn't really come west during the regular season," Shelton said. "So it would be a real treat for their fan base."
The destination might be more of an attraction for Spartans fans than the team, which finished 6-6 on the season. However, Shelton was quick to note that five of those six losses came by four points or less.
"I think they bring strong national recognition, strong national following, and I know they have thousands and thousands of alumni in Arizona," Shelton said.
Michigan State -- or either of the other two Big Ten teams in the mix -- would offer a change from the past two seasons, when Iowa played in the game.
The Big 12 side of the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl is nearly as wide open. Shelton said the teams in the mix now are No. 23 Oklahoma State, Texas Christian and Texas Tech. Oklahoma State and TCU have been projected to the bowl by a similar number of experts.
Oklahoma State's standing could be affected by its game against Baylor this weekend, as could TCU's via its game with Oklahoma. Like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State played in the Valley last bowl season, topping Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl. The excitement of that performance and fans' impressions of Arizona, Shelton said, make the Cowboys an appealing option.
"They were blown away by the hospitality the people here in the Valley of the Sun gave them," Shelton said. "The weather didn't hurt either, of course. So they know what kind of experience they can have here."
Shelton is also optimistic about TCU, saying he has heard its fans intend to travel well to prove they belong in the Big 12.
The Fiesta Bowl and Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl selections will be announced Sunday at 6:45 p.m.
