The inaugural running of the Grade 1, $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational at Gulfstream Park on Saturday may be a two-horse race to some, as much as it could be ripe for the upset to others. Certainly, Breeders' Cup Classic one-two finishers Arrogate and California Chrome appear set to renew their rivalry, with California Chrome just last week voted Horse of the Year for the second time in three years. Arrogate was the top 3-year-old of 2016, and they both come into the race in tip-top shape.
However, California Chrome drew the extreme outside in the field of 12 plus three also-eligibles, and will need to use some energy early to gain position without going too wide into the first turn. There are many other scenarios in play here; for example, if also-eligible Stanford draws in, he is a horse that prefers to take the lead early and could complicate the pace scenario. Even if Stanford remains on the outside looking in, Noble Bird may be in front after just a few yards, as he does his best running on the front end. Having won the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap earlier in his career, Noble Bird has a chance. Also with a chance is Keen Ice, who won the 2015 Grade 1 Travers Stakes, won in 2016 by Arrogate. Shaman Ghost and Breaking Lucky proved they fit in top company when first and fourth, respectively, in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes last summer. Although yet to win a stakes, Neolithic is a rising star from the barn of North American leading trainer Todd Pletcher and adds to the intrigue. Eragon has run 20 times to date, all in his native Argentina, winning half of those starts including his last two on dirt.
Main contenders:
Noble Bird likes to run loose on the lead and those are the tactics most likely to be employed in the Pegasus. With the exception of last year's Metropolitan Handicap, in the last three times he's been allowed an early edge Noble Bird has found stakes-winning form and has been unchallenged in the final eighth of a mile. When he isn't allowed that luxury, things normally don't go well. This was proven in the Clark Handicap, his most recent start, when he was bothered by another horse in the early stages, broke sixth of 10, rushed up to second, then tired badly. Prior to the Clark, Noble Bird earned a career best 121 Equibase Speed Figure winning the Hagyard Fayette Stakes handily at the same 1 1/8-mile distance of the Pegasus. That figure is in range of the 124 Arrogate earned winning the Breeders' Cup Classic, so Noble Bird fits with the leading Pegasus contenders on his best day. Noble Bird also fits on class, as he is one of the six Grade or Group 1 stakes winners in the field. Although two horses drawn inside of Noble Bird (Neolithic and Arrogate) have tactical speed, it is likely they will take positions behind Noble Bird in the first few yards, particularly as California Chrome will need to show a good deal of early speed to get away from his extreme outside post. It is certainly possible Noble Bird may expend too much energy in the early stages to hold off the stalkers and closers in the stretch, but with starting odds of 25-to-1, I am willing to find out if that is the case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wtyt98iMRjU
California Chrome draws the extreme outside 12 post for the Pegasus, and that could be problematic, to say the least. According to a racing angle I set up using STATS Race Lens, horses starting from post positions eight and higher in fields of eight or more in dirt route races at Gulfstream Park win just 9 percent of the time. On the flip side, although the competition in the Winter Challenge that California Chrome won last month wasn't much – such that California Chrome was just racing against the clock – he came through with a career best 132 figure and did it from off the pace while many paths wide on both turns. What that tells us is that even if jockey Victor Espinoza can't get California Chrome near the rail going into the first turn, he still could run good enough to win. Since arriving in Florida, California Chrome put in a very strong pair of workouts, the most recent being the second best of 48 on the day for five furlongs. Considering Arrogate did not show an official workout over the track, the familiarity with the Gulfstream Park surface could mean the difference in California Chrome turning the tables on Arrogate from his tough defeat in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Arrogate has won his last five races including the Breeders' Cup Classic with the aforementioned career-best 124 Equibase Speed Figure. He gets the ground-saving rail and can settle anywhere from second to fifth in the early stages. There were some setbacks in his workout regimen due to the wet weather in California, but Arrogate appears to be coming up to the race in peak shape. On the negative side, although Arrogate has won at 1 1/16 miles and at the classic 1 ¼-mile distance, he has yet to run the Pegasus distance of 1 1/8 miles. In addition, Arrogate has never raced or had an official workout at Gulfstream Park, and trainer Bob Baffert has not started a horse over this track in the past 10 years. Likely to go to post as one of the two prohibitive betting choices, along with California Chrome, Arrogate must be respected as a win contender but is likely not a good bet to win at low odds.
Neolithic is a newly turned 4-year-old who, although untested at this level, might be this good. Since adding blinkers two races back, Neolithic has run the two best races of his career, first getting a 111 figure when second in the Discovery Stakes in New York, then, more importantly, earning a 121 figure at Gulfstream last month. Although the competition Neolithic defeated last month isn't nearly the caliber of some in this field, he drew off to win by nine lengths at the finish with the comment "never asked," which suggests he can run even better in the Pegasus. With positive race experience over the track that both California Chrome and Arrogate lack, and starting at odds of 30-to-1, Neolithic may be a key to profit in this race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiBTF1Mtyj0
Exotic wager contenders:
Although not among the four main win contenders, there are four others that may be considered for exotic wagers like the exacta and trifecta. Keen Ice tied his second-best Equibase Speed Figure in a representative race, 109, when third in the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall. Last month in the Harlan's Holiday Stakes, Keen Ice was closer to the pace in the early stages than he had been in many of his previous races but still re-rallied for second after losing that position in the stretch. Eragon is an Argentine horse with 10 wins in 20 races. Eragon has won at the Pegasus distance on turf, where eight of his 10 wins have come. He has also won his last two races on dirt, both Group 1 stakes races. In spite of being wide on the far turn in both wins, Eragon really extended his stride in the stretch, so if the pace is really hot don’t be surprised to see him rolling past many in this field. Shaman Ghost and Breaking Lucky were separated by a total of a neck when first and fourth, respectively, in the Woodward Stakes last summer at Saratoga. The 120 figure Shaman Ghost earned was a career-best, as was the 119 earned by Breaking Lucky. Both were no match for Gun Runner in the Clark Handicap in November but ran well enough, with Breaking Lucky finishing second, three and one-half lengths ahead of Shaman Ghost. If either of these two horses can return to the form shown in the Woodward, this race could get very interesting as they could be in the thick of the action at the finish.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Madefromlucky (also-eligible) (122), Prayer for Relief (112), Sea Raven (also-eligible) (108), Semper Fortis (111), Stanford also-eligible) (123), War Envoy (108) and War Story (108).
My Selections:
Noble Bird
California Chrome
Arrogate
Neolithic
