Josh Donaldson's trade to the Toronto Blue Jays was one that probably took him all of five minutes to get over. He was a clubhouse and fan favorite and will be greatly missed in Oakland, but this trade is nothing but good news for the MVP-caliber third baseman.
As a super-two player, Oakland had four years of control left on Donaldson -- now Toronto does. Oakland would have never been able to grant Donaldson the kind of long-term deal he deserved, and there was a decent chance he would have remained with the team on one-year deals for two more seasons at the most. At that point, an escalating salary would have forced the payroll-limited Athletics to trade him.
Toronto is primed to offer Donaldson a long-term deal, and a good comp to use would be Kyle Seager. Seager reportedly just agreed to a seven-year, $100 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. Seager is two years younger; Donaldson is better.
The Mariners bought out fours years of free agency from Seager; those alone would be worth $100 million by the time he would have hit the free-agent market. Seattle essentially got three free years of arbitration from its star third baseman.
Donaldson, despite having just under two years of major-league service under his belt, made the league minimum this past year of $500,000. The perils of playing for the A's.
You can conservatively assume Donaldson could net $30 million-$35 million in four arbitration years and as a 32-year-old free agent an average annual value of $22 million-$25 million.
Six years at $65 million-$70 million with a seventh-year option/buyout would be a fair deal for Donaldson and a smart move for the Blue Jays.
While Donaldson is the better player, the seasons purchased for Seager (ages 27-33) versus the ones for Donaldson (ages 29-34/35) factor into a lower AAV. Also, the four years of arbitration for Donaldson versus the three Seager had also lessen the deal. The biggest factor, though, is four years of free agency for Seager; this would only be two for Donaldson.
The Seager comp
| 2012-2014 | Seager | Donaldson |
| G | 474 | 391 |
| AB | 1799 | 1461 |
| HR/AB | 26.8 | 23.6 |
| OPS | .764 | .812 |
| wRC+ | 116 | 129 |
| BB% | 8.3% | 10% |
| fWAR | 12.8 | 15.6 |
| bWAR | 12.3 | 16.9 |
| DRS | -5 | 35 |
| UZR | 12.8 | 30.8 |
The Jays made a strong move for Donaldson, now they need to finish it off and give a guy who's been fighting for every dollar he has made the long-term extension he deserves.
