NCAA Sweet 16 West Regional preview

NCAA Sweet 16 West Regional preview

Published Mar. 20, 2012 11:02 a.m. ET

Two members of college basketball's coaching royalty will clash for the right to advance to the Elite Eight when Michigan State and Louisville play on Thursday.

Spartans coach Tom Izzo has built a powerhouse program in East Lansing and is the longest-tenured coach in the Big Ten. Izzo has guided Michigan State to six Final Four appearances since 1999 and won a national championship in 2000.

Cardinals coach Rick Pitino, meanwhile, has experienced success over the years at Providence, Kentucky and Louisville. He is the only coach to lead three different college programs to the Final Four, last achieving the feat in 2005 with Louisville.

Both coaches should be plenty familiar with the other in a tournament setting. Izzo and Pitino last squared off during a regional final game of the 2009 NCAA tournament, when No. 2 seed Michigan State beat top-seeded Louisville 64-52.

A closer look at the West region:

Michigan State Spartans (1)

Next game: Michigan State vs. Louisville (4), Thursday, 7:47 p.m. ET.

How they got here: def. No. 16 seed LIU Brooklyn, 89-67; def. No. 9 seed Saint Louis, 65-61.

Potential show-stealer: Saint Louis dared Spartans point guard Keith Appling to shoot during a round of 32 matchup, and he responded with 19 points on 7-of-14 field-goal shooting. Appling has done an excellent job of controlling the game for Michigan State, and the team will be tough to beat if he shoots well.

Why they're Final Four-bound: If any coach and team know how to navigate its way to the Final Four, it's Tom Izzo and Michigan State. The Spartans have reached an astounding six Final Fours with Izzo since 1999, including back-to-back runs in 2009 and 2010. Forward Draymond Green has been outstanding this year in two NCAA tournament games, averaging 20.0 points, 12.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists.

Why they'll stumble: If an opponent can force Draymond Green into foul trouble, it would drastically change the way in which Michigan State plays. Green is the emotional leader of the team and a coach on the floor. Can the Spartans score enough points if he isn't on the floor?

Prediction: Michigan State beats Louisville and knocks off Marquette in the Elite Eight to reach a seventh Final Four in the last 14 years.

Louisville Cardinals (4)

Next game: Louisville vs. Michigan State (1), Thursday, 7:47 p.m. ET.

How they got here: def. No. 13 seed Davidson, 69-62; def. No. 5 seed New Mexico, 59-56.

Potential show-stealer: Gorgui Dieng is a 6-foot-11 sophomore from Senegal who can be a load in the paint for Louisville. He doesn't score a ton, but he has produced 11 double-doubles this season, and his presence on the glass is invaluable. Coach Rick Pitino played him all but one minute against New Mexico in the round of 32, and Dieng responded with 10 rebounds.

Why they're Final Four-bound: We've already seen what happens when a Big East team gets hot at the right time when Connecticut rode its Big East tournament title last year all the way to a national championship. Louisville is one of the hottest teams remaining in college basketball, having won six straight games, including the Big East tournament. Plus, it doesn't hurt to have coach Rick Pitino on the sideline, who knows how to win big games.

Why they'll stumble: Cardinals point guard Peyton Siva has been erratic at times and is prone to turning the ball over. Michigan State plays physical, Big Ten basketball, and with possessions at a premium, turnovers certainly won't help Louisville's cause. Louisville actually had more turnovers (11) than assists (nine) against New Mexico in the round of 32, and that won't cut it against Michigan State.

Prediction: Louisville loses to Michigan State in a close game.

Marquette Golden Eagles (3)
 
Next game: Marquette vs. Florida (7), Thursday, 10:17 p.m. ET.
 
How they got here: def. No. 14 seed BYU, 88-68; def. No. 6 seed Murray State, 62-53.

Potential show-stealer: Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom are the stars of the team, but guard Todd Mayo could provide a much-needed spark off the bench. Mayo, half-brother of NBA player O.J., has shown his scoring ability in spurts. He has scored in double figures during the regular season against nationally ranked teams Wisconsin, Georgetown and Louisville. He could make a difference against Florida while playing about half the game.
 
Why they're Final Four-bound: Any team that doesn't have to rely on one single player to shoulder the load offensively has an edge against opponents. Crowder and Johnson-Odom are just about equal when it comes to scoring. Crowder averages 18.5 points, while Johnson averages 17.6 points. The Golden Eagles also play a tough, physical brand of basketball and won't be intimidated by any team remaining in the tournament.
 
Why they'll stumble: Marquette has thrived all season on coming from behind late in games after wobbling out of the blocks. That isn't a very good recipe for success in a one-and-done tournament scenario. All it takes is one game in which the Golden Eagles fall too far behind, and their season could be over.

Prediction: Marquette beats Florida to advance to the Elite Eight but loses to Michigan State.

Florida Gators (7)
 
Next game: Florida vs. Marquette (3), Thursday, 10:17 p.m. ET.
 
How they got here: def. No. 10 seed Virginia, 71-45; def. No. 15 seed Norfolk State, 84-50.

Potential show-stealer: When talk of the best freshman in the country surfaces, most folks are quick to point out Kentucky's Anthony Davis. But fellow SEC freshman Bradley Beal has quietly produced an outstanding first year at Florida as well. Beal is second on the team in scoring at 14.6 points per game and is certainly not afraid of the spotlight. In two NCAA tournament games, Beal is averaging 14.0 points and 10.0 rebounds. Not bad for a 6-foot-3 shooting guard.
 
Why they're Final Four-bound: Florida has one of those rare teams in which five different players average double-digit points per game, making it particularly tough to game-plan against the Gators. Florida also has made more 3-pointers (342) than any other team in the country. When the Gators get hot from behind the arc, there is no stopping them.
 
Why they'll stumble: Although Florida has made a ton of 3-pointers this season, the Gators have also attempted more than any other team in the nation (892). Teams that live and die on the 3-point shot tend to struggle in the NCAA tournament. When shots stop dropping, what do the Gators have left?

Prediction: Florida loses to Marquette in the Sweet 16.

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