Posted: March 3, 2011, 6:22 p.m. CT
By JOHN DVORAK
FOXSportsWisconsin.com
Selection Sunday is rapidly approaching and some of the smaller conferences have already started their respective conference tournaments. This year the Big Dance expands to 68 teams, meaning there are now 37 at-large bids for those schools that didn't win their conference tournament (or league in the Ivy League's case).
All team records are as of March 3 and all RPIs are unofficial. This list features all of the schools that would be in the tournament if Selection Sunday was today. I projected the conference tournament champion with many of the smaller conferences that normally do not earn multiple NCAA bids. Again, this is the NCAA field as of today, not a prediction of what the field will look like come March 13. The "Schools on the Bubble" list below features schools that could still earn an at-large bid without winning their conference tournament.
Projected Bids by Conference, multi-bid leagues
Expect the Big East to dominate the NCAA field with a record 11 NCAA bids. The SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 will each get five or six selections depending on how their conference tournaments go. The ACC has the most to lose, with four teams right on the bubble, and could finish with just four bids come Selection Sunday. The Atlantic 10 and Mountain West should (and will) be awarded with three NCAA selections each. Keep an eye on the Horizon and West Coast Conference tournaments, as these could become just one-bid leagues depending on how things shake up.
Big East (11): Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, St. John's, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia, Marquette
SEC (6): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee
ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State ,Virginia Tech, Clemson
Big Ten (5): Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri
Mountain West (3): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Pac-10 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Colonial (2): George Mason, Old Dominion
Horizon (2): Butler, Cleveland State
West Coast (2): St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Projected Bids by Conference, one-bid leagues
Out of these conferences, really only Conference USA, the Missouri Valley (MVC) and the Western Athletic (WAC) have a legitimate chance of getting two NCAA bids. UAB, Missouri State and Utah State could probably afford to stumble in their conference tournaments and each of those leagues would get two bids. Kudos to Belmont and Coastal Carolina on excellent seasons, but in all honesty they must win their respective conference tournaments to be on the safe side.
American East (1): Vermont
Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont
Big Sky (1): Montana
Big South (1): Coastal Carolina
Big West (1): Long Beach State
Conference USA (1): UAB
Ivy League (1): Princeton
Metro Atlantic (1): Fairfield
Mid-American (1): Kent State
MEAC (1): Hampton
Missouri Valley (1): Missouri State
Northeast (1): Long Island
Ohio Valley (1): Murray State
Patriot (1): Bucknell
Southern (1): College of Charleston
Southland (1): McNeese State
SWAC (1): Texas Southern
Summit (1): Oakland (Mich.)
Sun Belt (1): Florida Atlantic
WAC (1): Utah State
LAST THREE IN: Cleveland State, Alabama, Boston College
FIRST THREE OUT: Baylor, Wichita State, Michigan
Schools on the Bubble (which are currently IN the NCAA field)
Many of these schools still need another win or two to solidify their NCAA tournament chances. As of today they are all in, but an early-conference tournament game slip up could cost them an NCAA bid-so Butler and Cleveland State (Horizon) be careful. St. Mary's and Gonzaga also better be careful because they each need to win a couple games in the West Coast Conference tournament to stay in the field. Alabama's (SEC) great conference record is worth noting, but that ugly RPI from a weak non-conference schedule could cost them if they stumble again.
Utah State (27-3, 14-1 WAC, 18 RPI)
Missouri State (23-7, 15-3 Missouri Valley, 41 RPI)
Richmond (23-7, 12-3 Atlantic-10, 61 RPI)
Michigan State (17-12, 9-8 Big Ten, 45 RPI)
Illinois (18-12, 8-9 Big Ten, 39 RPI)
Marquette (18-12, 9-8 Big East, 53 RPI)
Washington (19-9, 10-6 Pac-10, 42 RPI)
Virginia Tech (19-9, 9-6 ACC, 62 RPI)
Clemson (19-10, 8-7 ACC, 67 RPI)
Boston College (18-11, 8-7 ACC, 37 RPI)
Butler (21-9, 13-5 Horizon, 46 RPI)
Cleveland State (25-7, 13-5 Horizon, 43 RPI)
UAB (21-7, 11-4 Conference USA, 32 RPI)
St. Mary's (23-7, 11-3 West Coast, 49 RPI)
Gonzaga (22-9, 11-3 West Coast, 68 RPI)
Alabama (19-10, 11-4 SEC, 84 RPI)
Georgia (20-9, 9-6 SEC, 35 RPI)
Tennessee (17-12, 7-7 SEC, 36 RPI)
Coastal Carolina (27-4, 16-2 Big South, 98 RPI)
Belmont (28-4, 19-1 Atlantic Sun, 53 RPI)
Schools on the Bubble (which are currently OUT of the NCAA field)
Out of this list of schools I like Michigan (Big Ten) and Wichita State (MVC) the most. If each of these schools can win a couple games in their conferences tournaments, it will be very possible to slip right back in the field. Southern Mississippi could also cause some damage in the Conference USA tournament so keep an eye on them.
Memphis (21-9, 9-6 Conference USA, 34 RPI)
UTEP (22-8, 10-5 Conference USA, 70 RPI)
Southern Mississippi (21-8, 9-6 Conference USA, 40 RPI)
Maryland (18-12, 7-8 ACC, 86 RPI)
Baylor (18-11, 7-8 Big 12, 81 RPI)
Colorado (18-12, 7-8 Big 12, 77 RPI)
Nebraska (19-10, 7-8 Big 12, 73 RPI)
Michigan (18-12, 8-9 Big Ten, 57 RPI)
Wichita State (23-7, 14-4 Missouri Valley, 50 RPI)
Colorado State (19-10, 9-6 Mountain West, 47 RPI)
VCU (21-10, 12-6 Colonial, 64 RPI)
Conference tournament dates
American East: March 3-6
ACC: March 10-13
Atlantic 10: March 11-13
Atlantic Sun: March 2-5
Big East: March 8-12
Big Sky: March 5, 8, 9
Big South: March 1, 3, 5
Big Ten: March 10-13
Big 12: March 9-12
Big West: March 10-12
Colonial: March 4-7
Conference USA: March 9-12
Great West (no automatic bid): March 9-12
Horizon League: March 1-8
Metro Atlantic: March 4-7
Mid American: March 9-12
MEAC: March 8-12
Missouri Valley: March 3-6
Mountain West: March 8-12
Northeast: March 3, 6, 9
Ohio Valley: March 2-5
Pac-10: March 9-12
Patriot: March 2, 6, 11
SEC: March 10-13
Southern: March 3-7
Southland: March 8-12
SWAC: March 9-12
Summit: March 5-8
Sun Belt: March 5-8
West Coast: March 4-7
WAC: March 9-12
