Who doesn't enjoy having a breakout player on their roster? The most important thing about them is figuring out how and why their values shot through the roof from the previous season. Understanding the underlying trends can ultimately lead to a better chance of connecting on a similar player during your draft or auction next season.
Here's a closer look at some of the most common responses and how they may have become more valuable commodities in the last two months:
Ray Rice, RB, BAL — Last season, the Ravens running game showed signs of being a plug-and-play situation where any back receiving touches had a good chance of gashing the opposition due in large part to their strength on the offensive line. Before the season started, I looked at the use of running backs around the league by breaking down the production in timeshare and single-back situations. Not surprisingly, the Ravens were among the team's with the largest opportunity for a breakout, and Rice had a lot of things going his way this summer.
Baltimore's 2008 leading rusher Le'Ron McClain will return to fullback this season, leaving Willis McGahee and Rice to compete for touches in the Baltimore backfield. With 1,332 career carries and a history of knee injuries, the Ravens would be wise to continue employing a timeshare. Rice has been running with the first-team offense during organized team activities, but McGahee should get a fair shake to solidify the starting job during training camp. The Ravens' backfield could develop into Jacksonville 2.0, with Rice playing the role of Maurice Jones-Drew and McGahee staring as an aging Fred Taylor.
The Ravens are 13th in the NFL at 116.1 yards per game, a number that could be higher if their defense were more on par with the elite units they boasted earlier in the decade. As a team, they're averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season (t-8th), but Rice has led the charge at 5.3 YPC. Through the first three games of the season, it appeared as though McGahee was going to be the TD-vulture on board capable of limiting Rice to RB2 or even flex status in some leagues, as he had five rushing scores and 5.9 YPC mark in the Ravens' first three games. In the five games following his explosion, McGahee has nearly disappeared altogether with 11 rushing yards on 15 carries and no touchdowns. As for McClain, he hasn't found the end zone since Week 1. Meanwhile, Rice has been the second highest-scoring back in the league over the last five weeks (22.0 pts/game), second only to MJD.
Cedric Benson, RB, CIN — The old adage — fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me — rings true. I once drafted Cedric Benson in the second round of a 14-team staff league — a very important one where the usual rewards are supplemented by bragging rights and forcing the bottom half of the league to buy steaks for the top half at season's end. Suffice it to say, I've always held Benson accountable for having to buy an extra steak that year (2007) — and it was the only time of the three seasons I've competed in this league where I had to deal with that humiliation. Here was my preseason read of the running back situation in Cincinnati:
"The Bengals backfield is the island of misfit toys. Cedric Benson emerged as the best option in the running game last season, but he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and found the end zone twice in 12 games. Having a healthy Carson Palmer under center should help to keep defenses more honest and the lack of viable alternatives other than unheralded darts such as Bernard Scott means that Benson could see more than 250 carries this season."
What's wrong with that? Nothing ... except that I went on to include this little nugget:
"That said, his past off-field issues and lack of consistent NFL success override the fact that he could see a very significant share of the touches during his second season in Cincinnati. Even with a single-back set up, there are reasons to temper your expectations or even avoid Benson altogether."
At a certain point, the open window for a heavy share of the workload can't be ignored. As a fourth or fifth-round pick, there was too much risk for my liking in Benson; but there were plenty of leagues where he went in the seventh or eighth round (if not later) and taking a chance on him in the later middle rounds (because of their lack of depth) should have been more emphasized. Benson's going to be on a lot of championship-winning rosters this season, and to be completely up front and honest, I'm definitely staying away in 2010 if his stock remains high enough for him to be a first-round pick. At the current pace, he's on track for 396 carries this season — putting him at risk for a future breakdown; and his lack of pass-catching ability also limits his long-term upside.
Sidney Rice, WR, MIN — Does the quarterback make the receiver, or is it the other way around? Debate that one with your friends at Dino's Bar & Grill, but here's what we know for sure: Tavaris Jackson doesn't make receivers better. Rice is on pace for a 74-catch season with 1,170 yards and four touchdowns — numbers that would've placed him among the league's top-20 fantasy receivers last season. At 6-foot-4, he's a legitimate red-zone target with the ability to gets his hands on passes that are unreachable for opposing defensive backs. During his first two NFL seasons, Rice did very little (537 yards in 26 games — 20.6 YPG) as a consistent receiving threat, but he did show an aptitude for getting the ball in the end zone with eight receiving touchdowns. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see Rice slightly improve on his first-half numbers as the season progresses — particularly in the red zone where he continues to see a healthy number of looks from quarterback Brett Favre.
Vernon Davis, TE, SF — How many Davis owners drafted him late for the upside only to get impatient after his first two games — combined seven catches for 72 yards, no touchdowns — and cut him loose? That's a lot more painful than simply passing on him altogether, after Davis has emerged as the league's best fantasy tight end through the first half of the season. Regardless of whether it has been Shaun Hill or Alex Smith at quarterback, Davis has broken out to the tune of 35 catches for 402 yards and seven touchdowns in his last six games. Not bad for a guy coach Mike Singletary was willing to play without around this time last year, as Davis has clearly turned things around with his coach — even being named a captain for the 2009 season.
The emergence of Davis appears to be part of a large movement in the league that his resulted in the increase of productive pass-catching tight ends around the NFL. Before he went down with a torn ACL, Owen Daniels made the leap to the elite ranks at the position, while Philadelphia's Brent Celek has been a top-five producer this season now that he's no longer sharing targets with L.J. Smith. All in all, this could be an intriguing topic for further analysis during the offseason — the position seems to be getting smaller and more athletic, which is likely a big part of the evolving role — but a more thorough examination is in order.
OK, so you either did or did not draft some of the above players. Who should you be looking at as a potential breakout candidate for 2010? Here are a few interesting names to consider:
Justin Forsett, RB, SEA — In the land of teams that'll be looking for a new running back next season, Seattle can make a strong bid to become the capital. The most optimistic stance here is that Julius Jones has been something right around OK this season, but he's done little to suggest he's a long-term solution at the position. With Edgerrin James no longer in the picture, the door's open for Forsett to begin accumulating more touches as the team's backup running back. The decision to cut James may have been a little bit tardy — he scored just 12 percent of the team's fantasy points in the backfield despite getting 23 percent of the touches — but doing so now gives Seattle half of a season to evaluate the likes of Forsett (6.2 YPC, very limited work) or recently-signed Raiders castoff Louis Rankin.
Ladell Betts/New Redskins Running Back, RB, WAS — I swear, I have nothing against Clinton Portis - 2,176 career carries is a lot, and I'm unwilling to bet on him being a productive option for fantasy owners going forward. There are plenty of things wrong with the Redskins' offense, but it's hard to ignore that Portis' only two games above 4.0 YPC this season came against the Rams and Chiefs. A lot can change between now and 2010 — the Redskins could draft a replacement at running (or more likely in their case, throw a bunch of money at someone they shouldn't). Keep a close eye on Betts while Portis is on the shelf. Even though he's already 30 — and two years older than Portis — his legs have endured about one-third the workload (746 carries), and his late 2006 production still makes speculative owners salivate. Bottom line, keep a close eye on what happens to the stable of running backs in Washington, as there will be some value to unearth — whether it's Betts or someone else — if Portis isn't back in 2010.
Mohammed Massaquoi, WR, CLE — The Browns receiving corps rivals that of the Rams for the absolute worst in the league. Still, there are a few reasons to consider their rookie wideout from Georgia as a potential option down the road. First, he's been getting the lion's share of the targets — though it'll be interesting to see how the switch back to Brady Quinn may impact that, even though the production really can't get any worse on a per-target basis; it's just a question as to whether those looks will be there. Even though he's had just nine catches for 140 yards and no touchdowns in the last four games, he's been targeted 30 times during that span. Second, the Browns aren't going to be an overnight rebound project, meaning the abundance of cheap, garbage-time production should remain. Third, Massaquoi's name is worth more points in Scrabble than Oakland corner Nnamdi Asomugha. What's not to like about that? For receivers, getting targets is half the battle, but we'll have to play the wait-and-see game with the other half and see how the personnel around him changes in the coming months.
Travis Beckum, TE, NYG — Why the heck should you be interested in a player with just seven catches for 35 yards and no touchdowns this season? At 6-foot-4, 235, Beckum's a potential matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. His combination of size and speed is the lethal mix teams are beginning to look for at the position, as he could easily become a dangerous slot receiver for the Giants. If he hadn't suffered a fractured fibula during his senior season at Wisconsin, there's a good chance he would've been scooped up earlier than the third round in April's draft. The opportunities haven't been there thus far, but keep an eye on the Giants' use of him during the second half of the season as he could be prime for a breakout in year two if he proves capable of handling his blocking assignments.
Article first appeared 11/12/09
