McNeal: Pitchers need to achieve these stats to lead Cardinals' playoff push
ST. LOUIS -- Winning 90 games should be enough to put the Cardinals in the postseason for the fifth straight year.
Who knows if they again can get there, but I do know if enough of their pitchers and position players can finish with the numbers I've assigned to them, the Cardinals will not be heading home at least until mid-October.
Matt Belisle: 60 outings or fewer. With an average of 73-plus appearances a year for the past five years, he's been one of baseball's busiest relievers. It's probably not a coincidence that his ERA has risen for three straight seasons. A reduced workload should help his effectiveness and as a middle reliever, the less he has to work, the more effective Cardinals starters will be pitching.
Randy Choate: 30 appearances against right-handed hitters. The lefty specialist was as tough as always last year against lefty hitters, allowing them a .093/.205/.147 slash line. His troubles came when he was used as more than a lefty specialist, which was more often that he preferred. Choate faced 60 right-handed hitters and they crushed him to the tune of .385/.458/.481. Cut the number of right-handed hitters he has to face by 50 percent and he should be fine. Manager Mike Matheny has said he will use Choate mostly as a lefty specialist this year, too.
Sam Freeman: One inherited runner to score. Freeman inherited eight runners last year and allowed only one to score in what was his longest stay in the majors. So there's little reason to believe he can't repeat that success -- if he gets a chance. The lefty is a long shot to make the roster and because he is out of options, is a candidate to be traded during spring training.
Marco Gonzales: 10 starts or fewer. Whether he begins the season in the Memphis rotation or the St. Louis bullpen, he is the leading candidate to be the sixth starter in St. Louis. A sixth starter figures to be needed, too, with Michael Wacha returning from injury and Carlos Martinez in his first year as a starter. But if Gonzales is needed for only 10 starts, chances are good that Wacha and Martinez will be pitching up to expectations.
John Lackey: 3.50 ERA. That would make him average on a pitching staff that posted a 3.50 ERA in 2014. Even at 36, Lackey should still be average.
Lance Lynn: 225 innings. Don't be surprised if this is the season he passes Wainwright as the rotation's No. 1 innings-eater. Lynn is coming off his best season and is just entering his prime. Also, he considers innings pitched his most important stat. Well, besides wins, but he knows the more innings he works, the more chances he has for W's.
Seth Maness: 65 percent ground-ball rate. The double-play guy struggled some early in 2014 but by the end of the season, was pitching at least as effectively as he did in his rookie season. One difference, though: He gave up considerably more fly balls in 2014. In 2013, Maness generated ground balls against 69.9 percent of the batters he faced. Last year, the rate fell to 59.7 percent. As a result, the number of double plays he induced also dropped, from an NL-most (among relievers) 16 in 2013 to 12 in 18 1/3 more innings last year.
Carlos Martinez: 170 innings. When you consider he pitched only 99 2/3 innings last year, including 10 1/3 in the minors, 170 might be aiming high. On the other hand, Shelby Miller worked 173 2/3 innings in his first season in the rotation, and they were mostly very good innings as he went 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA. Considering the quality of Martinez's stuff, he should be able to match at age 23 what Miller managed at 22.
Trevor Rosenthal: 2.39 walks per nine innings. Rosenthal caused more than a few ninth-inning adventures in his first full season as a closer, and his 5.37 walk rate was a big reason why. There's a chance Rosenthal would not pick up 45 saves again just by reducing his walk rate to 2.39 -- his rate in 2013, by the way -- but he would throw fewer pitches and, as a result, hold up better when he has to work three games in three days. Fewer walks also would reduce the anxiety level of his teammates and Cardinals fans.
Kevin Siegrist: 95-mph fastball average. The lanky left-hander dealt with arm issues most of last season and as his velocity slipped, other numbers soared. Left-handed batters hit .308 off Siegrist last year, nearly 200 points higher than in his rookie season, and his ERA soared to 6.82 from 0.42. He isn't likely to put up numbers like he did in 2013, but if he can regain the full heat on his fastball, he should be noticeably more effective than he was in 2014.
Michael Wacha: 0 days on the disabled list. If his right shoulder stays healthy, there's no reason to believe the 23-year-old right-hander will not emerge as one of the league's top starters. He looked strong last year until he landed on the disabled list. After 15 starts, his ERA was a sparkling 2.79 and opponents were batting just .222 against him.
Adam Wainwright: 20 wins. It's all about the W for Wainwright who, in his past five seasons, has won 20, 19, 14, 20 and 19 games. If he could win 20 and keep his workload closer to 200 innings than 230, even better.
Jordan Walden: 2.68 walks per nine innings. Like the Cardinals' closer, Walden -- projected as Rosenthal's top setup man -- struggled with walks in 2014 when he averaged a career-most 4.86 walks per nine innings. Walden's other numbers were splendid -- an 11.16 strikeout rate, a .186 batting average allowed and a 2.88 ERA. So as long as he commands, he should stay in command.
Carlos Villanueva: 3.55 ERA. That's the ERA he has posted in his career as a reliever, compared to 5.00 as a starter. If he is needed to start in St. Louis, it probably means something has gone wrong with the pitching staff.
You can follow Stan McNeal on Twitter at @StanMcNeal or email him at stanmcneal@gmail.com.
