Making the Grade, which will run through the 2016 Belmont Stakes, focuses on the winners of the big races, usually from the previous weekend, who could impact the next Triple Crown. We'll be taking a close look at impressive winners and evaluating their chances to win classic races based upon ability, running style, connections (owner, trainer, jockey) and pedigree.
This week we take a closer look at Nyquist, winner of the $2-million Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Oct. 31 at Keeneland Race Course.
Heading into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Nyquist looked, to me, like an ideal colt to take a stand against. Rarely in my years as a racing fan and turf writer have I been more wrong. Nyquist overcame a poor start, raced between horses and still would not be denied, charging from as far back as eighth to win for the fifth time in as many races. He earned $1.1-million for the win and nailed down the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male. Nyquist is named after National Hockey League player Gustav Nyquist, a right wing for the Detroit Red Wings. Let's take a look at what makes him a special colt.
Ability: Nyquist looked like a potential monster in winning his debut and has since reeled off four straight graded stakes wins. After earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure for his career debut, which is a phenomenal number, he earned a 105 and a 104 for winning the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, respectively. It was his fourth start, stretching out to 1 1/16 miles for the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes that led to my concern leading into the Breeders' Cup. Nyquist won the FrontRunner by three-quarters of a length, but the 88 Equibase Speed Figure in his first race around two turns was a 16-point drop and sounded alarm bells.
Turns out, it was a false alarm. Nyquist arguably delivered his most impressive performance to date, given he overcame a tough trip, and solidified his credentials as the best 2-year-old male of 2015. The 100 Equibase Speed Figure also showed he is capable of running a big race around two turns. Nyquist figures to be formidable as a 3-year-old.
Running style: Nyquist was on or very near the pace in each of his first four wins but he showed a new dimension after he was bumped hard at the start of the Juvenile. Eighth after a half-mile, Nyquist was wide on both turns but still managed to close powerfully to keep his unblemished record intact. Nyquist showed versatility in the Juvenile and that he could overcome trouble and win in a big field, which is valuable to know before targeting a race like the Kentucky Derby. But it's also positive that Nyquist has plenty of speed, so that when facing smaller fields in prep races early in 2016, he can keep himself out of trouble and pick up points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Connections: Nyquist shares the same connections as 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner I'll Have Another. He is owned by J. Paul Reddam and trained by Doug O'Neill. I'll Have Another's jockey Mario Gutierrez also has been aboard for all five of Nyquist's races.
Dennis O'Neill, Doug O'Neill's brother, picked out both I'll Have Another and Nyquist from 2-year-olds in training sales. He landed I'll Have Another for $35,000 out of the 2011 OBS spring sale of 2-year-olds in training. Nyquist was purchased for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Florida sale of selected 2-year-olds in training.
Reddam has raced Thoroughbreds since he claimed his first horse in 1998. He previously won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in 2004 with Wilko, whom he owned in partnership. Nyquist gave him a second Breeders' Cup Juvenile win and his third overall at the World Championships. He also won the Breeders' Cup Turf in 2006 with Red Rocks. Reddam is the president of CashCall, a finance lending company.
Doug O'Neill took out his trainer's license in 1994 and earned his fifth Breeders' Cup win with Nyquist. O'Neill won the 2005 Breeders' Cup Juvenile with Stevie Wonderboy, the 2006 Sprint with Thor's Echo, the inaugural Filly and Mare Sprint in 2007 with Maryfield and the 2013 Dirt Mile with Goldencents. For years, O'Neill was best known as the trainer of superstar gelding Lava Man. O'Neill claimed Lava Man for $50,000 and he went on to win seven Grade 1 races and earn more than $5 million in O'Neill's care.
Gutierrez, a native of Mexico, became a household name as the jockey of I'll Have Another during his 2012 Triple Crown run that featured wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Gutierrez, 29, has amassed more than 900 wins and 105 stakes wins since he took out his jockey's license in 2006.
Pedigree: Nyquist is from the first crop of 2010 champion 2-year-old male Uncle Mo, who was like greased lightning on the racetrack as a 2-year-old when winning his three starts by a combined margin of 23 ¼ lengths. He earned an unfathomable 123 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the 2010 Juvenile at Churchill Downs and from a speed figure perspective is arguably the fastest juvenile in recent history. Uncle Mo did not win any of the Triple Crown races at 3 but he did have a pair of blistering races in 2011, earning a 120 speed figure for his runner-up finish in the Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at seven-eighths of a mile and a 123 for winning the one-mile Kelso Handicap.
Uncle Mo has three graded stakes winners from his first crop, including Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes winner Gomo and, of course, a slam-dunk champion in Nyquist. He's off to a remarkable start as a stallion. The big concern is distance as Uncle Mo never won a race longer than 1 1/16 miles, so it will be interesting to see if his runners can go a bit farther than their sire.
Part of the reason I was concerned about Nyquist's chances in the Juvenile stem from the pairing of Uncle Mo with Nyquist's dam (mother), Seeking Gabrielle. He only win came in a sprint at three-quarters of a mile and she was unplaced in three races at a mile or longer.
Seeking Gabrielle does boast some class, however, as a half-sibling (same dam, different sire) to graded stakes winner and producer Seeking the Sky, graded stakes-placed winners Seeking the Money and Seeking It All and stakes-placed winner Seeking the Glory. All five were produced by 1994 Adirondack Stakes winner Seeking Regina, the grandam (maternal grandmother) of Nyquist. But Seeking Regina, too, had her limits when it came to distance, never winning a race longer than 6 ½ furlongs.
Nyquist's third dam (maternal great grandmother), Fulbright Scholar, was a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles.
Nyquist is clearly talented, but there remain concerns regarding how far he can carry his speed. Of course, I had similar concerns about American Pharoah coming into this year and he won the Triple Crown. It just goes to show that talent trumps all when it comes to evaluating racehorses. A special talent can often accomplish extraordinary things.
