Making the grade: Breaking down American Pharoah's Kentucky Derby victory
Making the Grade, which will run through the 2015 Belmont Stakes, focuses on the winners of the big races, usually from the previous weekend, who could impact the Triple Crown. We'll be taking a close look at impressive winners and evaluating their chances to win important races based upon ability, running style, connections (owner, trainer, jockey) and pedigree.
This week we take a closer look at Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah, a bay colt previously profiled following a dazzling 2015 debut when winning the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on March 14, and assess his chances to win the Preakness Stakes on May 16 at Pimlico Race Course.
American Pharoah earned a career-defining victory in the Kentucky Derby, not only for him but also for owner-breeder Zayat Stables, which had finished second in the Derby three times before a breakthrough win in 2015. Kentucky Derby victors have proved formidable in the Preakness Stakes, and American Pharoah figures to be a heavy favorite in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Let's take a closer look at his chances.
Ability: Since finishing fifth in his career debut, American Pharoah has put together a five-race winning streak by a combined margin of 23¼ lengths that has cemented his status as the top 3-year-old in training. American Pharoah earned a career-best 111 Equibase Speed Figure for his one-length Kentucky Derby win, which was four points higher than his Arkansas Derby runaway and three better than his Rebel Stakes romp in his season debut on March 14.
The 111 Equibase Speed Figure also is the highest Kentucky Derby figure since Big Brown's 114 in 2008 and close to the last three for California Chrome (2014), Orb (2013), and I'll Have Another (2012), each of whom earned 109s for their Derby victories.
According to Trakus, American Pharoah traveled 29 feet more than runner-up Firing Line and 69 feet more than pacesetting stablemate Dortmund, who held on for third after entering the race unbeaten in six races.
This group of 3-year-olds was widely lauded as one of the deepest and most talented in recent years, and the fact that four of the top five betting choices finished first, second, third and fourth â led by 2.90-to-1 favorite American Pharoah - showed that 3-year-old form held up in the Derby. That is a good sign for American Pharoah, who already proved capable of beating the best of his generation fair and square, even when traveling more distance.
The biggest concern might be the cramped schedule for American Pharoah, whose Derby win was his third in seven weeks. His final prep race for the Kentucky Derby came three weeks before in the Arkansas Derby. Should he win the Preakness Stakes, that would be his fourth victory in nine weeks after a 5½-month layoff.
Firing Line, on the other hand, had six weeks before his final prep race â an easy 13-length win in the Sunland Derby â and the Kentucky Derby and was making his third start in 12 weeks. Theoretically, Firing Line should be fresher than American Pharoah in the Preakness.
Of course, American Pharoah was not really even challenged in his two prep-race wins, so you could also view the Kentucky Derby as his first tough test and something that should help build his foundation.
Running style: Since 2000, Kentucky Derby winners who race on or near the pace have enjoyed much more success in the Preakness than closers (see table below). Of the six dual classic winners in the last 15 years, three were in front at the Derby quarter-pole, two were in second and one was in fourth and all six were within 3¼ lengths of the lead. American Pharoah was just 1½ lengths back in third with a quarter-mile to go as he was able to use his tactical speed to gain a clear trip just behind the leaders throughout his Derby win.
Conversely, six of the other eight Derby winners -- not counting Barbaro, since he was injured and did not finish the Preakness -- who lost in the Preakness had rallied from at least fifth at the quarter-pole in the Derby to prevail (two were fifth, two were sixth, one was 11th and one was 12th). The other two were Street Sense, who charged from 19th after a half-mile to second at the Derby quarter-pole, and Super Saver, who was sixth in the early stages of the Derby but got the jump on the opposition. In both instances, Street Sense and Super Saver benefitted from heady, ground-saving rides by Hall of Famer Calvin Borel.
But let's not complicate things too much. In the last 15 Triple Crowns, horses with the tactical speed to stay close to the pace in the Kentucky Derby generally fare much better in the Preakness than Derby winners who close from off the pace. That makes American Pharoah much more dangerous in the Preakness.
Connections: Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby four times. Each of his previous Derby victors -- Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002) -- went on to win the Preakness Stakes as well.
Baffert has won the Preakness Stakes five times with Point Given (2001) and Lookin At Lucky (2010) joining the aforementioned trio of dual classic winners. His only Belmont Stakes winner to date is Point Given in 2001.
Victor Espinoza has been aboard American Pharoah for each of his five career wins and earned his third Kentucky Derby victory in 2015. In both 2002 with War Emblem and last year with California Chrome, Espinoza followed his victories in the Kentucky Derby with Preakness wins, setting the stage for a Triple Crown bid. Both came up short, but make no mistake, Espinoza knows the path to the Preakness winner's circle at Pimlico.
Zayat Stables, founded by Ahmed Zayat in 2005, is one of the leading owners in North America and has raced 13 Grade 1 winners since 2005, including 2014 champion 2-year-old male American Pharoah and Eclipse Awards finalists Bodemeister, Eskendereya, Zensational, Point Ashley, and Rightly So.
American Pharoah is from the second crop of Pioneerof the Nile, who was a star for Zayat Stables and is off to a nice start at stud with six graded or group stakes winners from 106 starters through May 4. Pioneerof the Nile, by 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, was a Grade 1 winner at two and three who excelled at longer distances. It's too early to get a firm read on Pioneerof the Nile's ability as a sire but he seems to be passing along athletic ability and stamina to his offspring.
Pioneerof the Nile's graded stakes winners Vinceremos and Cairo Prince both enjoyed some success on the 2014 Triple Crown trail and Social Inclusion finished third in the 2014 Preakness Stakes.
American Pharoah's dam (mother), Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman, was winless in two tries, both in sprints. She has two winners from two foals to race with a Grade 1 winner to her credit.
Second dam (maternal grandmother), Exclusive Rosette, set a course record when sprinting on the grass and was a stakes-winning sprinter on the main track. Exclusive Rosette is the dam of graded stakes-winning sprinters Storm Wolf and Misty Rosette, the latter the third-place finisher in the Grade 1 Test Stakes at seven furlongs in 2006. American Pharoah's third and fourth dams also raced exclusively in sprints with neither able to secure a win.
The female half of American Pharoah's pedigree leans very heavily toward speed, and make no mistake he has an abundance of speed. I'm a little worried about distance limitations for the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes, but the Preakness figures to be right in American Pharoah's wheelhouse.
There is much to like when assessing his chances for the Preakness. Kentucky Derby winners historically, especially recently, have run very well in the Preakness, as one might expect, especially those with American Pharoah's close-to-the-pace running style. His Equibase Speed Figure indicates the performance was highly regarded, however the :26.57 final quarter-mile was a big sluggish considering there was a fairly easy pace.
American Pharoah also traveled farther than both runner-up Firing Line and third-place finisher Dortmund in the Derby -- expected to be his main competitors in the Preakness -- and still posted a clear victory. Expect him to be a heavy favorite, somewhere around even-money odds (probably between 4-5 and 6-5), and for good reason: American Pharoah is an elite talent who was clearly the best of a strong group of 3-year-olds in the Kentucky Derby. Unless the Derby winner runs out of gas in his fourth race in nine weeks, another contender probably would need to run the race of his life to beat him in the Preakness.
