Welcome to a new kind of Power Rankings. By now we’re sure you’ve seen the standard type, based on subjectivity and weighted heavily toward recent performance. Rather than bring you another of that ilk, we’re going to rank the 30 teams from top to bottom based on the playoff odds made available by Baseball Prospectus.
What are the playoff odds? Baseball Prospectus runs 50,000 simulated seasons and the playoff odds are simply the percentage of times a team makes the playoffs - either through winning their division or their league’s Wild Card - in the simulated seasons. As we stand now, the playoff odds are based on projections, which are affected by news daily - and thus updated daily. The Reds recently announced their expected rotation to open the season, which affected playing time for several players, which will affect the season projections, which affect the simulations, which affect the playoff odds.
As the season rolls along, the wins and losses compiled by the team will be taken into account, as will results of positional battles won and lost, injuries, and mostly anything that would affect a team’s performance. Each week we will update the rankings based on the projected odds to make the playoffs, along with some analysis, humor, insight, or fun fact with an accompanying Baseball Joe that will take a slightly deeper look into why the rankings are the way they are.
While we’ll lose some of the subjectivity that goes into a standard power rankings, we’re also not as beholden to them. This gives us the freedom to investigate, learn, and hopefully have some fun with what the BP playoff odds spit out. We’re really looking forward to it, and hope you’ll do the same.
Here’s a taste of the type of analysis you’ll find in the weekly Baseball Joe ...
The Good: Seattle Mariners: 2014 playoff percentage: 29.0 percent, 2015 playoff percentage: 54.4 percent
The Mariners have long been looking for an offense to pair with their potent potables pitching staff, and just might have finally found it. They did what they couldn’t bring themselves to do last offseason, ponying up for a four-year pact with Nelson Cruz. Don’t overlook the additions of platoon outfielders Justin Ruggiano and Seth Smith, nor the depth that Rickie Weeks and J.A. Happ provide.
The Bad: Atlanta Braves: 2014 playoff percentage: 36.4 percent, 2015 playoff percentage: 8.0 percent
No surprise here, as Atlanta shipped off all of the viable outfielders they had, choosing instead to rely on the pain-in-the-neck stylings of Nick Markakis. Their pitching is young, deep, and talented, but not enough to overcome the four or five automatic outs in their lineup. Those extensions to Kimbrel and Freeman aren’t necessarily looking bad, but the Braves are wasting their cheap seasons already.
The Red Sox: 2014 playoff percentage: 53.1 percent, 2015 playoff percentage: 54.2 percent
Despite turning over a significant portion of their pitching staff and signing three impact talents in Rusney Castillo, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval (not to mention the looming presence of Mookie Betts), the Red Sox find that their playoff odds have shifted a mere one percent. This just goes to show that even though teams like the Red Sox are lauded for their use of advanced analytics, advanced analytics won’t always laud them back. The 2014 Red Sox season also goes to show that percentages are just that, and not any sort of guarantee.
And make sure to head over here every week for the full rankings.
