The Orlando Magic have reached the quarter pole of this shortened NBA season, and there have been few surprises.
With Dwight Howard on the court and Stan Van Gundy on the sidelines, the Magic are winning lots of games. Orlando has won a whopping 68 percent of its regular season games in the Van Gundy era, and traditionally the Magic have gotten off to fast starts. This year is no exception.
Take a look at how Orlando has fared one-quarter of the way into the last four NBA seasons:
'07-'08: 16-5 (76.2 percent)
'08-'09: 16-5 (76.2 percent)
'09-'10: 17-4 (80.9 percent)
'10-'11: 15-6 (71.4 percent)
That's an average winning percentage of 76 percent for a team that went on to win an average of 55 games during those four years.
This year, one quarter of the way through the 66-game regular season, the Magic have a record of 12-5. The winning percentage (70.6 percent) is slightly down from recent years at this time, and there are a few other signs that this Magic team has not performed quite as well as in years past.
Scoring margin, a good indicator of a team's strength — an average of 6.3 in the SVG era — is currently at 4.0.
Offensive efficiency numbers have been on par with those of recent Magic teams, but it is at the defensive end where Orlando has experienced some slippage. The Magic currently rank 13th in defensive efficiency. In the last four seasons the team has never ranked lower than fifth.
When you look at the numbers, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where the Magic defense has dropped off. Dwight Howard still owns the paint. Teams still have a hard time getting easy baskets around the rim. The Magic still give up fewer fast break points than any team in the league, a trademark of Van Gundy teams.
The one big difference from a year ago is opponents' free throw shooting.
Last year, teams shot a league-worst 74.3 percent at the line against Orlando. This year they're making foul shots at just under 80 percent, second highest in the league. (Detroit opponents have made just over 80 percent of their foul shots.)
Stan Van Gundy is a fine coach, but even he can't design an effective defense against opponent free throws.
What does it all tell us? Well, one quarter of the way through the NBA season, the Magic are still one of the best teams in the league. They are going to win plenty of games. They are as good offensively as they have been in recent years, but down just a bit perhaps defensively.
As for the way opposing teams have shot free throws against them (Boston and Indiana recently went a combined 37 for 37 at the line against the Magic in back to back games), in the words of FDR, "I think we consider too much the good luck of the early bird and not enough the bad luck of the early worm."
Or as pop icon Pink put it, "sometimes it be's like that."
