FORT WORTH, Texas—TCU's growth chart with Gary Patterson in charge is marked by four major notches. The latest was joining the Big 12 in 2012. That was 18 months after the Frogs beat Wisconsin to win the Rose Bowl. That win came a year after losing to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, a game that served as the culmination of almost a decade of Patterson's bold, decade-long proclamation that the Frogs would one day crash the BCS.
The first major benchmark came back in 2005. Patterson had a promising, talented team preparing through fall camp to play Adrian Peterson and Oklahoma, who opened the season as the nation's No. 7 team. The Frogs shocked the nation and earned a new level of respect in the region by winning the season opener. TCU hadn't beaten a team that highly ranked in 45 years.
Saturday, TCU will be on the brink of another major program benchmark. There's no real consensus on the Big 12's true favorite, but if the Frogs beat No. 12 LSU on Saturday, that will change quickly. A win would likely be the best win by any of the Big 12's best teams until at least Sept. 28, when Oklahoma travels to Notre Dame, who will start the season at No. 14 but face Michigan and Michigan State before the Sooners come to town. There might be upsets along the way and better wins on paper, but no one will have proven more or have a better resume.
The distance between the top four teams in the Big 12 is minimal, and the national polls reflect that, with just six and seven spots separating the four Big 12 teams in the two major polls.
If TCU pulls off the upset and jettisons itself into the top 15, there won't be a more legitimate Big 12 favorite than the Frogs for at least the first month of the season.
Like any coach, Patterson's not prepared to look that far ahead, but he's got especially good reason. That 2005 team lost only one game all season after beating the Sooners: Its next one. That loss came against rival SMU.
"It means we're 1-0," Patterson said. "We're just trying to get to 1-0. … The thing for us is just being able to handle not thinking you have to do too much. You have to play within yourself. That's important, as young as we still are."
Patterson's not going to be the one that says it, but beating a top 15 team and one of the SEC's top programs is the surest way to earn respect around the Big 12. TCU's still the new kid on the block in the Big 12. Remember that respect TCU earned by winning seven games a year ago and at least being in contention to win all the others, save a rough second half in Stillwater?
A win over LSU would exceed that by far and clear up a muddled race at the top of the Big 12.
"This year, it's kind of just, ‘Let's go play.' We don't have as many people staring down at us," TCU tight end Stephen Bryant said. "I think the SEC's a great conference and has great talent. It obviously shows in the draft. … I don't think it's overrated at all. Obviously, they've earned what they've gained."
To reach what's out there, though, TCU will have to clear a couple hurdles of their own that don't have anything to do with their incoming visitors from the SEC. Defensive end and reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields will sit for breaking undisclosed team rules this offseason, and his void will be filled by Matt Anderson, who's making his return after missing the last two seasons with knee injuries.
"We'll be OK. Next man up. We're only as good as our twos and threes," said Jon Koontz, who will start opposite Anderson at defensive end. "We're ready to go with what we have. That is SEC powerhouse football, but upfront, we'll hopefully be able to slow down that run game a little bit."
Bryant sounded optimistic about TCU's other challenge, getting quarterback Casey Pachall looking like his old self. He was the nation's leader in passer rating before a drunk driving arrest led to him leaving the team to seek treatment and missing the final nine games of 2012.
"I think he looks better. He's more confident," Bryant said. "He went through some adversity, but he's back and he looks great. I think he's ready to go and he's excited, too."
If Pachall proves Bryant right on Saturday night and knocks off the Tigers, it'll be time to mark out another groove on that growth chart for TCU with Patterson in charge. It would make TCU a bona fide contender for the sixth remarkable moment: A Big 12 title.
