Lions-Saints Breakdown: Won't be easy in the Big Easy

NEW ORLEANS – There is a sweet, flowing rhythm in the Big Easy that belies the reality that life isn’t all that easy for those who live here.
The local culture has a compelling mystique that is rich in tales of voodoo magic and a distinctive musical style exported to the world by the likes of Louis Armstrong, Professor Longhair, Dr. John and Harry Connick Jr.
The New Orleans Saints are a proud cornerstone and rallying point for this city, and they make life hard on visitors.
They want to send the young, talented Lions home to the sounds of a funeral dirge in Saturday night’s NFC wild-card playoff game at the Superdome.
Although there is considerable sentiment among national analysts that the Lions will make a good showing, the Saints are favored by 10.5 points. They are the heaviest favorites of the weekend’s four playoff games.
There are a number of important matchups, but nothing bigger for the Lions than quarterback Matthew Stafford’s ability to lead the offense.
He had a breakout season in 2011, throwing for 5,038 yards to become one of only four quarterbacks in NFL history to reach the 5,000-yard mark in a season.
Stafford hasn’t shown any hint of being affected by the pressure of his first playoff game.
Regardless of how many yards he passes for, Stafford knows what the real objective is – even in the tough environment of playing in the Superdome.
“Win,” he said. “That’s what people are judged by this time of year. The fun thing for me is, this offense, a lot of it’s on me, being able to throw the ball around.
“I’d rather have it that way than to go there and throw eight passes a game and have us win.
“I like us on the road. We’re a team that thrives on having our back up against the wall. They’ve been really good for a long time. We’re going to go out there and execute and see what happens.”
The Lions have some defensive lapses, and a season-long issue of being penalty-prone. Both could be killers against the Saints.
The Saints are used to playoff pressure. They’ve made the postseason four times in six seasons, and the 2009 team won Super Bowl XLIV.
The logical pick is to take the Saints to win and cover the point spread. They’re good, and they’ve been motivated by last season’s first-round ouster by a Seahawks team that slithered into the playoffs with a 7-9 record by winning the weak NFC West.
The Lions don’t have the approach of a team that is just happy to be in the playoffs.
“I don’t want it to end,” center Dominic Raiola said. “It’s too fun.”
My pick for Saturday’s game doesn’t suspend logic, but bends it a little. The Lions will be competitive and give the Saints all they can handle.
My pick for Saturday night: Saints 34, Lions 30 – with the fence-straddling qualifier that nothing the Lions do would surprise me.
Here is this week’s Fox Sports Detroit Lions-Saints Breakdown:
Rewind, Saints 31-Lions 17 on Dec. 4
The Lions showed their best and worst in a Sunday-night game at New Orleans that was televised nationally by NBC.
The best was Stafford passing for 408 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and the Lions rallying from deficits of 17-0 and 24-7 in the first half to make a game of it. The Saints scored a late touchdown to clinch the game.
The worst for the Lions was 11 penalties for 107 yards. A personal foul against rookie Titus Young took away a chance to score a touchdown and forced the Lions to settle for a field goal. Another personal foul cost the Lions field position when Stefan Logan threw the ball in the face of a Saints player after a return.
The penalties gave the Saints help that they didn’t need. They showed their poise with only three penalties for 30 yards.
The Brees file
Brees is precise and accurate (71.2-percent complete rate), and he spreads out a defense to get matchups he likes.
“Whatever matchup favors him, that’s where he’s going,” said cornerback Chris Houston.
Brees gets 6-foot-7, 265-pound tight end Jimmy Graham on an undersized defensive back, and Graham has produced. He led all Saints receivers with 99 catches and 11 TDs.
Brees threw 46 TD passes and cut down interceptions this season, from 22 in 2010 to 14. And he had only one fumble all season.
Saints head coach Sean Payton has designed the ideal offensive system for Brees, and Brees is the ideal quarterback to run that system.
The Stafford file
No moment seems too big for him. He has handled everything that he could handle this season. The only thing that slowed him down was a broken index finger that forced him to wear a splint and gloves for three games. In that span he threw seven TD passes against nine interceptions.
Stafford was at full strength for five games after Dec. 1 and passed for 1,919 yards. That’s most in NFL history after Dec. 1, according to available research.
Stafford has developed a chemistry with his wide receivers. When he reads that teams are going to blitz, Stafford welcomes it, said wide receiver Nate Burleson.
“He has that smirk on his face,” Burleson said. “It’s exciting.”
The Saints did a good job against Johnson in the first game, holding him to six catches for 69 yards.
“We’ll see how they play us,” Johnson said. “We’ve got a great game plan.”
Fresh troops
The Lions played the Saints a month ago without five key defensive players. All five are back for Saturday’s game.
Three were starters: safety Louis Delmas and Houston (knee injuries) and tackle Ndamukong Suh (suspension).
End Lawrence Jackson, a key part of the defensive line rotation, had a badly bruised knee. And rookie tackle Nick Fairley departed after the first quarter when he reinjured his left foot.
Lions rush, Saints protection
The Lions’ pass rush is statistically close to last season – 41 sacks vs. 44 in the 2010 regular season – but in reality pressure on the quarterback has been sporadic.
The Lions got pressure up the middle last year, and Suh led the charge with 10 sacks. He has only four this season, and he hasn’t shown up consistently as an interior dominator.
The Lions’ defense is built around the front four. It has to be disruptive.
“They’ve got to lead us,” said defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham.
Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch have led the way in sacks with 11 and 8 respectively. Avril has been a particularly effective producing turnovers, with 6 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, an interception and 2 touchdowns on returns.
Getting pressure in Brees’ face can make a difference. For all his talent, he’s only 6 feet tall. If the front four makes he feel like he’s throwing from the bottom of the well, it could result in tipped passes and interceptions.
That’s easier said than done, though. Brees was sacked only 24 times, and the Saints led the league in sacks allowed per play.
Wild cards
For the Saints, it’s running back Darren Sproles. He does a little bit of everything on offense and contributes as a return man on special teams.
Sproles was the Saints’ leading rusher with 603 yards, ranked second to Graham with 86 receptions and was the primary return man on punts and kickoffs. Despite the workload, he’s relentless.
For the Lions, the wild card might be a play, not a player. The best way to turn momentum against a heavy favorite is with turnovers. That means anything that puts the offense in position to score on a short field.
One play, like a fumbled punt or defensive touchdown, can turn the game in the Lions’ favor.