Lions-Bills Breakdown: Curtains for Lions in Buffalo

Lions-Bills Breakdown: Curtains for Lions in Buffalo

Published Nov. 12, 2010 9:48 a.m. ET

The Lions have been cast in the "other guy" role this year. They give nice performances and get their share of time on center stage, but they're never the star.

When the curtain falls, it falls on them.

The other guys -- the winners -- get the curtain call.

The Lions are typecast again in Sunday's road game against the winless Buffalo Bills. The Bills are favored by three points. The Lions are "the other guy" -- the team the Bills are projected to beat for their first win of the year.

This is has been a star-crossed season for the Lions, and they've been unable to reverse roles. They have been upstaged at almost every turn in the first half of the season, even in victory.

Calvin Johnson had a game-winning touchdown catch nullified by an obscure rule in the opening game at Chicago. The Bears walked away with an undeserved victory. The Lions were "the other guy."

Redskins Donovan McNabb was the tragic hero for being benched in the final two minutes of a 37-25 loss to the Lions. The Lions were "the other guy" -- just as they were in last week's 23-20 loss to the Jets that generated two Sundays worth of goose bumps.

In this week's Fox Sports Detroit Breakdown, my opinion is that the Lions are a better team than the Bills. But my pick is for the Bills to win and cover the point spread.

My reasoning goes against my belief that there is no such thing as destiny in sports, or that the law of averages plays any role on what can happen on a given day in any sports.

From the Book of Mike, Chapter 9, Verse 1: Good teams win because they're good. Bad teams lose because they're bad. When two teams with losing records play each other, cover your eyes and go with the trend.

Site/kickoff: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y./ 1 p.m. EST.
Records: Bills 0-8, Lions 2-6.
History: The Lions had a 4-3-1 series lead, and are 1-2-1 on the road.
Last meeting: Lions 20, Bills 17 on Oct. 15, 2006 at Ford Field.


Lions' stats:
Passing -- Shaun Hill 127-208 (61.1 pct.), 1,309 yds., 9 TD, 7 Int., 79.6 rating.
Rushing -- Jahvid Best 107-345, 3.2 ave., 4 TD; Kevin Smith 28=114, 4.1 ave.; Jerome Felton 9-32, 3.6 ave.
Receiving -- Best 41-356, 8.7 ave, 1 TD; Calvin Johnson 39-551, 14.1 ave, 8 TD; Brandon Pettigrew 39-362, 9.5, 3 TD; Tony Scheffler 28-239, 8.5 ave., 1 TD; Nate Burleson 26-289, 11.1 ave., 3 TD.
Sacks -- Ndamukong Suh 6.5, Cliff Avril 4, Kyle Vanden Bosch 4, Louis Delmas 2, Turk McBride 2.
Int. -- Alphonso Smith 5.
Punts -- Nick Harris 45.2 net, 38.3 gross, 3 touchbacks, 10 inside 20.
Field goals -- Dave Rayner, first game.
Returns -- Stefan Logan 13.2 ave. punts, 29.4 kickoffs, 1 TD.

Bills' stats:
Passing -- Ryan Fitzpatrick 136-227, 1,499 ave., 13 TD, 7 Int., 85.8 rating.
Rushing -- Fred Jackson 83-313, 3.8 ave., 3 TD; Fitzpatrick 24-168, 7.0 ave.; C.J. Spiller, 39-150, 3.8 ave.
Receiving -- Steve Johnson 41-554, 13.5 ave., 6 TD; Lee Evans 29-373, 12.9 ave., 4 TD; Spiller 18-81, 4.5 ave., 1 TD; David Nelson, 17-189, 11.1 ave.
Sacks -- Kyle Williams 3.
Int. -- Andra Davis 1.
Punts -- Brian Moorman 43.1 gross, 37.0 net, 3 touchbacks 7 inside 20.
Field goals -- Rian Lindell 9-12.
Returns -- Spiller 25.4, 1 TD on kickoffs.

Lions keys': They haven't had balance on offense this year. The passing game has been strong, but the running game ranks 30th and hasn't made any real progress.

Shaun Hill makes his sixth start at quarterback in place of Matthew Stafford, who is out again with a second injury to his right shoulder. Hill isn't as dynamic as Stafford and doesn't stretch the field as much, but he'll spread the ball to receivers. He was playing well when he went out with a broken left forearm in Game 6.

The Bills are last in the league stopping the run, and they've had only one interception. This is a rare case where the Lions ought to dominate on offense.

Bills' keys: It is amazing how much heart they've shown. Their last three losses have been by three points each, and two were in overtime.

Coach Chan Gailey doesn't take any comfort from close losses.

"I've never been around a good loss," Gailey said. "The bottom line in this game is, you win or you lose. We've played three close ones, but I don't feel a lot better."

Ryan Fitzpatrick has given the offense a spark since taking over as the starter in Game 3. He already has set a career high with 13 TD passes. His previous highs were nine in eight starts for the Bills last year, and eight in 12 starts for Cincy in '08.

Buffalo's defense has to step up somewhere. Make that anywhere. Their pass defense has been strafed for a combined passer rating of 108.4, and the run defense is allowing an average of 4.8 yards per play.

One area where they're among the league leaders is penalties -- only 38. The Lions have 77.

History repeating: Just when you think you've seen it all, you haven't.

In 2008, the Lions started out 0-8, and there was no way they'd be the first NFL team to go 0-16 in a season, would they?

They would, and they did.

Two years later, the Bills are 0-8 -- and there is a way they'll go 0-16. The Lions already have written the blueprint.

"I've quit saying

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