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By ZAC JACKSON
FOX Sports Ohio
March 15, 2011
DAYTON -- Right in front of me, at this very second, Arkansas-Little Rock is running UNC-Asheville right out of the University of Dayton's gymnasium.
Because I'm here mostly to cover the second "First Four" game between UAB and Clemson, and because you probably stumbled upon this space because you care much more about your bracket than you do about this game, let's talk bracketing. Namely, the things I do each year when filling out mine and the things I think you should do when filling out yours.
1. Ride the streaks -- This, to me, is the most important thing you can do if you do any homework at all. Teams have made long runs without winning their conference tournaments before, but few have faltered over the last three weeks of the season and suddenly regrouped. Look for teams who finished strong and have Uncle Mo on their side as they enter the tournament. Ohio State and Kansas come immediately to mind, as do Kentucky, Notre Dame, UConn, Michigan and Memphis. Both Old Dominion and Butler have won nine straight; problem is, they play each other Thursday. Villanova, Wisconsin, Georgetown (due to injury), Missouri and Purdue are top-of-my-head examples of teams kind of limping in. You've been warned.
2. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to be donators -- A 1-seed has never lost to a 16. A 1-seed goes down in the second game to an 8 or 9 only once every four or five years, and if you had Northern Iowa over Kansas last year you're still vacationing in the Bahamas and don't need to win your bracket pool. A 12-seed beats a 5 every year (big Richmond fan this year), and Texas and Pitt often gag in March. Now that's going a little deeper -- Texas is better than two of the 2-seeds yet is a 4, and Pitt is the class of an extremely weak region -- but with minimal research you can see which teams and coaches often play two or three weekends deep. Generally, those teams have lots of upperclassmen, come from power conferences and play serious defense.
3. Trust your picks -- You need to pick an upset or four, but you don't need to overthink it. And don't crinkle up your bracket if your favorite 4-seed is losing by 8 in the first half Thursday afternoon. Remember at the top of this entry when I wrote that UALR was running UNCA out of the gym? Well, UNCA now has the lead. Happens all the time. Pick your criteria -- top seeds, favorite vacation destination, teams with the best 3-point shooting percentage, even "I just always loved Stacey Augmon" -- and run with it. The real time should be spent annoying your co-workers by analyzing every game after its played rather wasting work time this week laboring over what's essentially a crapshoot. That time is better spent on Facebook.
4. Strategize, at least a little -- Here in Ohio, just about everybody is going to pick Ohio State to win it all. So, for you to win, you're either going to need to nail 29 of the 32 first-round games or try to beat the Buckeyes. That might not happen, but it's something to consider. If your competition has ties or bias to other schools, know it. Work around it. And know that the probability of high seeds advancing on decreases dramatically in each round, so even if your crystal ball's readings of Utah State, Belmont, Wofford and Indiana State are right, you probably don't want to push those teams too far along. The real points come by picking a bunch of the final eight and final four anyway.
5. Study up -- I don't get out much, and because of that I watch a lot of games. That doesn't mean I'm going to be any better guessing than you are, but I surround myself (and my Twitter feed) with people who crunch numbers and study this stuff like, well, it's their job. And I know a few things. Ohio State is really, really good. Kansas and Texas are capable of being really, really good. No Mountain West Conference team made it out of the first weekend last year. All of the Colonial teams (George Mason, Old Dominion and VCU) are scary. Duke is Duke, and there's a chance Duke gets Kyrie Irving back. There's also, of course, a chance you'll be calling me names at this time next week. This year's Northern Iowa is out there somewhere, and it's coming for your squad.
Oh, yeah. About that whole thing going on here, Little Rock is back on top. It's bordering on a beatdown, actually, as I predicted on the radio this afternoon. I looked at Little Rock as a team that came from nowhere to finish strong (Rule #1), came from a better conference (some combination of #'s 3 and 4) and had much better 3-point shooting numbers (#5). I'm going to press send even though there's lots of time left, and I'm going to both guess that I'm 1-0 and ask you to follow me this March.
I'd be undefeated, except Asheville just came back and won in overtime.
