For Los Angeles Lakers fans, there are plenty of ways to think about Thursday's NBA Draft – if the 48th pick is worth thinking about at all, that is.
The two simplest ways involve lists.
Kostas Papanikolaou, Keith Benson, Latavious Williams, Taylor Griffin, Malik Hairston, Vladimir Veremeenko, Mickael Gelabale, Pape Sow, James Lang.
Marc Gasol.
In the 10 most recent drafts, those are the players picked 48th. The nine players on the first list have had little to no NBA success. Between them, they've played in a collective 305 regular-season games. Three have never made it to the NBA. Only one remains in the league, 2005 pick Gelabale, and even he was back in Europe for four years before the Minnesota Timberwolves picked him up on a 10-day deal last winter.
The second list, if one can call a single name a list, is the Lakers' lone 48th pick in the past decade. It's Marc Gasol, reigning Defensive Player of the Year, perhaps the best center in the NBA today. It's a sign of hope, perhaps, among a pretty bleak series of names, and because he was picked by the Lakers, after all, his presence at No. 48 can seem a bit more relevant than the slight chance at success in the draft Thursday those names portend.
Gasol was picked by the Lakers, of course, as a nobody in 2007, as Pau Gasol's fat little brother. He was picked while still playing in Europe, where he had gone after no big-name American school recruited him. He wasn't coming to the NBA that next season, and he was tossed in the 2008 deal that brought Pau to Los Angeles from Memphis.
He was one of those European players a team takes a chance on in the dregs of the second round, where money isn't guaranteed and it's a bonus if someone pans out. He was trade fodder, dealt for proven talent when no one could have possibly expected he'd become what he is today.
It's not sounding quite as positive anymore, at least not for the Lakers. It's sounding a lot like Gasol should join the list of failures, if this is to be looked at from the Lakers' perspective, or at least that there should be an asterisk. Picked, but discarded for a sure thing.
The 48th pick is bleak territory, and that's where Mitch Kupchak and company are operating on Thursday night. They need bodies, really, above all else, cheap, serviceable bodies to fill the bench, and at 48, that's more of a challenge than one might expect.
The realm of pick No. 48 is this murky area where mock drafts fail to hold up and names are mispronounced tongue twisters. This is where the Marc Gasols and Kostas Papanikolaous enter the equation, often tagged with massive buyouts and contracts that will pay them far better overseas than they would make in the NBA. This is where it's almost a better idea to snag a European with unknown upside and watch as his overseas contract plays out; let the kid develop, and eventually bring him over if he's up to NBA standards. If not, no big deal.
Unfortunately for the Lakers, they can't — or shouldn't — go that route this week. That route works for teams that tend to pick late, meaning teams that have had some success the season before and that don't have much space for projects on their rosters. That's not the Lakers, not really, and holding the rights to a European teenager gets them squat in the near term. That's what matters, too: the near term.
The Lakers are worried about 2013-14, not the next year, or even the next. After the upcoming season, they'll have plenty of cap room and the ability to do what they've always done: go after big-name players. They'll woo free agents to Los Angeles, get some guys to take slight pay cuts to play with stars, and theoretically, things will return to normal.
That's why 2013-14 matters.
It could very well be the season when the whole thing falls off the wagon, depending on Kobe Bryant's health and Dwight Howard's destination in free agency. The Lakers have little wiggle room financially, and they're going to be heavily reliant on minimum deals to stock their bench. It's not the most appealing of prospects for the free agents the team hopes to offer, especially if there's no Howard, and so grabbing a player in the draft who can fill one of those spots and play 10 minutes a game is, if not crucial, then certainly ideal.
In recent seasons, Andrew Goudelock (2011's 46th pick), Darius Johnson-Odom (2012's 55th pick) and Robert Sacre (2012's 60th pick) have seen action for the Lakers, with Sacre and Goudelock contributing more toward the end of the 2012-13 season than anyone in the organization might have imagined or wanted. At this point, another player at that level — or by some miracle, higher — is what the team needs, and it can't go looking for a project. Whoever is picked there will have a better shot at making the team than the average late-second-round pick, and depending upon the direction in which the team goes, he could have a chance to play reasonable minutes.
Now, let's look at a few players who might fit the bill, with the caveat that by the time pick No. 48 rolls around, the draft is almost completely unpredictable.
Myck Kabongo, PG, 6-foot-3, 180 pounds, 21 years old, Texas
The Lakers' first priority in the draft should be to acquire some backcourt depth. If Bryant doesn't make it back until November or December (and it could be later than that), the Lakers will be especially needy in terms of guards. Kabongo is one of the more intriguing options who could fall to No. 48. He's a pass-first point guard who proved to be an effective playmaker in college, and he also has shown hints of prowess on the defensive end of the court, where the Lakers could certainly use some help.
Peyton Siva, PG, 6-1, 181, 22, Louisville
Siva, too, could be an option at point guard for the Lakers. Though he's projected as a mid-second-round pick, he played at a high-profile school and won a national championship last spring, and he proved to be a leader throughout his college career. He'll likely be known more in the NBA for his defense, and his skills on offense haven't developed as much as many might have hoped throughout his college career.
Phil Pressey, PG, 5-11, 177, 22, Missouri
Pressey is the third point-guard option who might be available around the time the Lakers pick, and he's a tricky case. An undersized playmaker, Pressey is capable of the kinds of passes only Ricky Rubio has proven capable of executing in the NBA today, but unlike Rubio, Pressey seems unable to understand that's how he should make his mark. Instead, he tried throughout much of his college career and predraft workouts to function as a scorer, which he is not. If Pressey can realize his strengths — or if some coach can drill them into his brain — he might actually be able to cobble together a decent NBA career.
Trevor Mbakwe, PF, 6-8, 236, 24, Minnesota
Mbakwe's age is the biggest thing working against him. The former Minnesota forward boasts a somewhat checkered past, and an ACL injury earned him an extra year of eligibility last season. He's five years older than many of the draft's top prospects, but Mbakwe seems to have put his struggles behind him, and before his brushes with the law and injury, his name was put forth as a likely lottery pick.
DeShaun Thomas, F, 6-7, 220, 21, Ohio State
Thomas was Ohio State's featured player last season after two years of playing with Jared Sullinger, and he could be a prolific scorer. He's not much of a passer, though, and his defense is weak, but Thomas could see himself as a decent second-unit player in the NBA if he continues to develop.
