Kiki's keys to the game: Lakers vs. Spurs
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How's this for a scheduling quirk?
The Lakers and Spurs hadn't faced each other all season. Then they played April 11, and now Tuesday and Friday.
That's three times in nine days! And if their playoff positions hold – San Antonio is second in the West and LA is third – they'll meet again in the conference semifinals.
In other words, these two teams may get to know each other very well.
It also means we'll get to see a lot of this intriguing matchup in the coming weeks. It's really a contrast in styles, but maybe not how you remember it. The Spurs are historically a defense-oriented halfcourt team centered around Tim Duncan. The Lakers have traditionally been a fast-break team going back to Magic Johnson's Showtime days.
Now the roles are reversed. The Lakers are the team that wants to slow the tempo and get the ball to their 7-footers, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. The Spurs are the ones with a fast-tempo, high-octane offense. They're third in the league in scoring, third in field-goal percentage and first in 3-point percentage.
You have to give credit to Gregg Popovich for changing San Antonio's style. He won four championships by emphasizing defense and playing his stars a lot of minutes. The defense is still strong, but this is a much more dynamic offensive team now. Even though Duncan's still a great player, he's older and needs help. So Popovich has turned Tony Parker loose and let him run the offense. The Spurs have also surrounded Duncan, Parker and Manu Ginobili with a great mix of young and old guys who give them the deepest bench in the league.
Just in the last month, San Antonio's added Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw and Patty Mills while getting rid of Richard Jefferson, who never really fit their system. Now they have 12 players averaging at least 6.7 points. They come at you in waves and most teams just can't keep up. The Spurs won 11 straight games before Popovich decided to rest Duncan, Parker and Ginobili on Monday in Utah – and San Antonio nearly won that game, too.
Depth is the biggest difference between the teams. The Lakers are dead last in bench scoring and Mike Brown has to lean heavily on his starters. Kobe Bryant is averaging 38.4 minutes per game, Gasol 37.2 and Bynum 35.3. Compare that to Parker at 33.3, Duncan at 28.5 and Ginobili at 23.7.
It also gives San Antonio a big advantage in this condensed regular season. While some teams are getting tired, the Spurs have fresh legs. They averaged 108.3 points during their recent winning streak. It's going to be a challenge for the Lakers to keep up, especially with Bryant set to miss his third straight game Wednesday with a sore left shin.
The Lakers need to play to their strength and try to dominate down low with Bynum and Gasol. Gasol has really stepped up in Kobe's absence, scoring 55 points in the last two games. For as good as he is and as many accolades as he's received, I think Pau is still an underrated performer. He's a savvy, skilled 7-footer who creates matchup problems for everyone.
Bynum, meanwhile, has established himself as the No. 1 offensive center in the league. Overall, he's still probably No. 2 behind Dwight Howard, but his presence in the middle has been irreplaceable on both ends of the court. He's had some recent issues with technical fouls and other behavior that everyone is talking about. You can call them growing pains, testing the boundaries, learning how to be a star – I think they're all applicable. But I know Andrew and he's a good person. His heart is in the right place. I think this is part of his growing process and he'll come out on the right side of this thing.
The Spurs, like everyone, will have a hard time matching up with those 7-footers. But Duncan is still one of the best big men in the league. He lost weight in the offseason and got himself in great shape. With Popovich doing a fantastic job keeping him fresh, Duncan is still just as dominant as ever at times. A key guy for the Spurs is Tiago Splitter, a 6-11 center who has played with a lot more confidence this season and can put a body on Bynum.
If Splitter and DeJuan Blair can do some of the dirty work inside, the Spurs have an army of wing players to throw at opponents with Ginobili, Jackson, Danny Green and rookie Kawhi Leonard. I think you'll see all those guys take turns guarding Kobe when he's back on the court next week and in the playoffs.
Really, these regular-season games are valuable for both teams in case they end up meeting in the postseason. At this point, the Lakers (36-22) probably aren't going to catch the Spurs (40-15). San Antonio's pretty much locked into one of the top two seeds. LA needs to hold on to a top-four seed to secure home court for the first round. In that respect, these games are more important to the Lakers.
But for both coaches, these matchups are a chance to test theories and develop scouting reports for the playoffs. If they meet in the conference semis or finals, I think some of San Antonio's advantage goes away.
Why? Because in the playoffs, depth isn't as important. You get normal rest between games. The pace slows down. You don't need 12 players. That's my one concern about the Spurs. I think they're a really good, really smart team, but talent-wise, I think there are better teams. The Lakers aren't as good as the Spurs from 1 to 12, but they're better from 1 to 4 or 1 to 5.
In the playoffs, when most teams go to an eight-man rotation, that difference between the teams evens out.So don't be surprised if the Spurs get the better of the Lakers in the regular season, but the playoffs may be an entirely different story.