The opener to this all-important Week 13 of the NFL season probably left you flat. Unless you started (or played against) Marshawn Lynch or LeSean McCoy or took a flier on the Seattle defense or Riley Cooper, you were left flat.
DeSean Jackson failed you once again (four receptions for 34 yards).
Brent Celek was invisible (three receptions for 21 yards).
Vince Young was terrible in his third start in place of Michael Vick with four interceptions. I was nervous about the trip to Seattle on a short week against a pass defense that has quietly played well. I couldn’t have imagined that this team would get run off of the field.
So, take a deep breath. We still have work to do, particularly if you’re working to overcome the efforts of the aforementioned Lynch (“The Beast”) and McCoy, who demonstrated great heart and performed brilliantly despite the GTD tag. Let’s find value in the secondary positions.
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Tight Ends
Exclude: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Fred Davis, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez
Week 13 TE Heroes
Dustin Keller at WAS: Keller got back into the good graces of fantasy owners in Week 12 with two touchdown receptions against the Bills. He remains a borderline TE1 play because of his consistent target count in support of Mark Sanchez. Keller has caught four or more passes in four of the past five games. The Redskins’ pass defense is strong overall, but they have ceded five touchdowns to tight ends and more than four receptions per game.
Jake Ballard vs. GB: Owners have dived off of the Ballard bandwagon in the past several weeks. I’ll put some chips behind the guy who will likely be involved in a high-scoring affair and playing catch-up to the dominant Green Bay attack. Ballard caught three passes for 47 yards in Week 12 against New Orleans, his seventh performance of at least three receptions in the past eight games.
Greg Olsen at TB: Olsen is mired in a terrible funk following his hot start to the 2011 season. He’s scored just once in his past six games and has produced 24 receiving yards or fewer in three of those contests. Still, Olsen is on the board for a play against Tampa Bay. Though his yardage count and red zone opportunities have been scarce of late, he still piles up targets. The Buccaneers have allowed the 12th-most points to tight ends, including six touchdowns.
Brandon Pettigrew at NO: Fantasy owners have climbed off of the Pettigrew bandwagon. Although he continues to pile up receptions (54 already), Pettigrew’s infrequent visits to the painted grass (three) have left owners wanting.
I’m still onboard for this week’s tilt against the Saints (10th-most points allowed to tight ends), a game that will force Matthew Stafford to push the ball downfield to keep pace with Drew Brees. I can’t guaranty dominance, but I’ll take the high target count and rely on the sneak previews afforded by the Saints. The Lions will need to pass and pass and pass in this one.
Week 13 TE Flop Alerts
Tony Gonzalez at HOU: Gonzalez normally resides in the “Exclusions” list and it is certainly difficult to bench him given his consistent production. However, the Texans have allowed the third-fewest points to tight ends this season and just two touchdowns. Matt Ryan will continue to get the ball out to Gonzalez, but I’m fearful of a low yardage total.
Owen Daniels vs. ATL: Daniels has been relegated the role of PPR fill-in in recent weeks. He hasn’t scored since Week 4, though he has caught at least three passes in nine of 11 games.
In theory, the move to T.J. Yates portends to a bigger role for Daniels and more opportunities. This is a particularly difficult spot against the strong Atlanta defense. I’ve got him as a borderline TE1 this week (12th).
Week 13 TE Ninja Alerts
Kellen Davis vs. KC: Davis pops onto the radar as a growing red zone target in Chicago. He’s scored in back-to-back weeks and likely takes on a larger role in support of Caleb Hanie. How do you get a young or inexperienced quarterback comfortable? Dump the ball to the tight end.
Marcedes Lewis vs. SD: Lewis has done well to get open in recent weeks. He just needs to complete the act of catching the ball in the end zone as he did in 2010. Lewis is on the board this week against the scuffling San Diego defense. The Chargers have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season. Lewis is the top receiving option for the Gabbert/McCown duo.
Kickers
Week 13 Kicker Plug-In Plays
Matt Prater at MIN: Opposing kickers have scored the most points against the Vikings this season (22 field goals). The Denver running attack will continue to trudge along, and Tebow should find success downfield against the depleted Minnesota secondary. Look for the Broncos to rely on Prater’s big leg indoors. Opposing kickers have converted six kicks of at least 50 yards.
Nick Folk at WAS: :The Redskins quietly rank 10th in total defense at 20.2 points allowed per game. Much of that scoring has come off the legs of opposing kickers. Washington has allowed the fifth-most points to kickers this season, including 25 field goals. The onus is on Mark Sanchez to limit his turnovers. Put the running game to work and play defense.
Connor Barth vs. CAR: The Panthers rank 31st in total defense and, by last report, Josh Freeman will be available for this home tilt. As a result, we’ll take the reestablished connection with Mike Williams and ride LeGarrette Blount to a big home effort. Carolina surrenders the ninth-most points to kickers.
Olindo Mare vs. TB: DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and the game’s best goal-line vulture, Cam Newton, will continue to torture the terrible Tampa Bay run defense. The Buccaneers surrender the 12th-most points to kickers, including 16 chip shots (field goals under 40 yards).
Week 13 Kickers on the Pine
Nick Novak vs. SD: Would you believe that the Jaguars have allowed the fewest points to kickers this season? The Jaguars rank fifth in total defense and have allowed just 14 field goals this season. Philip Rivers continues to struggle in the passing game and force throws.
Lawrence Tynes vs. GB: The Packers get up early and force teams to play catch-up ball. As such, kickers are relegated to PAT attempts. Kickers have generated just 13 field goals against the Packers this season.
Matt Bryant at HOU: The Texans rank second in total defense at 16.3 points allowed per game. Given the injuries afflicting the Atlanta offense, I’m reticent to jump onboard the Bryant bandwagon this week. Houston has allowed the 11th-fewest points to kickers this season (18 field goals). He’s still a back-end K1 option this week, but it’s a tough spot.
Defenses
Week 13 Defense Plug-In Plays
Denver at MIN: The Vikings will most likely play without Adrian Peterson for another week. He did not participate in Friday’s practice. Conversely, all-world rookie linebacker Von Miller was back at work Friday after undergoing surgery on his thumb earlier in the week.
The overall numbers associated with the Denver defense are inflated because of early-season struggles and injuries. They’ve been playing fantastic ball of late to back Tim Tebow. Miller and Elvis Dumervil will torment Christian Ponder, and running room for Toby Gerhart will be sparse.
Jacksonville vs. SD: I’ll be curious to see how the Jaguars respond to this week’s activity. They’ll head into the Monday night home tilt against San Diego with an interim coach and a new owner in waiting. I suspect that they’ll audition well for the new owner and continue Philip Rivers’ tortured 2011 season. The Jacksonville defense ranks fifth in total defense (18.2 points allowed per game) and has generated 19 turnovers. The loss of Rashean Mathis needs to be taken into account, of course. I’m just struggling to find things to like in the San Diego attack right now.
San Diego at JAC: Let’s run it to the other side of that matchup. The Chargers rank 26th in total defense, so this is hardly a layup. However, there’s a great opportunity here against the anemic Jacksonville offense (12.5 points scored per game). Maurice Jones-Drew will find success and log mileage on the ground. I’m just not anticipating frequent red zone visits and, though this defense has been brutal, they should be able to contain the Gabbert/McCown duo and speedster Cecil Shorts downfield.
Week 13 Defenses on the Pine
Detroit at NO: What else is there to say? Detroit will likely enter the matchup without Ndamukong Suh because of his suspension. Even if he were to be available, Drew Brees is the captain of the “Clean Jersey Team.” His offensive line is playing fantastic ball right now, and Brees’ ability to get the ball out quickly gets defenses huffing and puffing early in the game.
Houston vs. ATL: The Texans rank second in total defense and have controlled opposing offenses all year. This really becomes a question about whether the losses absorbed by the Atlanta offense (Julio Jones and Michael Turner appear likely to miss this game) force Matt Ryan to press into coverage. If not, I fear that T.J. Yates puts them in precarious situations when put in disadvantageous down and distance situations. The onus is on Arian Foster to find running room against the tough Atlanta front.
Cincinnati at PIT: The Bengals’ defense has been exploited by opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks (even Colt McCoy tossed two touchdown passes). I’m fearful that Ben Roethlisberger and his speed options take advantage of Leon Hall’s absence in this home rematch. If the Bengals fail to surmount a big pass rush early (they sacked Roethlisberger five times in the first meeting), they’ll be in trouble.
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