Every year, Jeff Passan writes a "Dubious Start" column, in which he lists 10 players off to surprisingly good starts, and assigns each of them a rating from 1 to 5 Doobs. No. 6 on Passan's list is Tim Lincecum, who a) entered spring training with a seemingly tenuous hold on his spot in the Giants' rotation, and b) is now 3-2 with a 2.00 ERA in six starts. Tenuous, indeed!
Should we be dubious, though? Passan:
His groundball rate is at 54 percent, more than 7 percent better than his career average. His home run rate has cratered, too, though that may be more due to his low homer-to-flyball rate than something he's doing. Time will tell on that.
The point is: Lincecum is trying something new, and it's working. After throwing his four-seam fastball 30 percent of the time and sinker 18 percent over the last two years, according to Brooks Baseball, he's employing the sinker on 26 percent of pitches and the straight fastball on 21 percent. Lincecum has thrown 143 split-fingered fastballs this year -- one fewer than the number of sinkers. Combine them, and it accounts for more than half his pitches -- zone-diving, groundball-inducing beasts, even when they're registering in the 80s on radar guns.
The three [Doobs] is more a heart-than-head pick, because any right-handed pitcher sitting 87-88 with his fastball is in peril. And yet Lincecum is a brilliant pitcher, as much head as heart, and seems to be embracing a new style that better suits what his arm can give him. We'll see if it lasts.
I'm going four Doobs rather than three, because my head's still a bit ahead of my heart on this one. Maybe if Lincecum were Jamie Moyer's age or something...
Here's the bad news: For all the talk about Lincecum's outstanding earned-run average and his elevated groundball rate -- last season he would have ranked 33rd among qualifiers, if he'd qualified; this season he's 18th -- there's one stark fact: Lincecum's xFIP this season is practically identical to last season's. Which was practically identical to the previous season's. Which was practically identical to the previous season's.
Yeah. It's weird. Lincecum's last four xFIPs:
Of course, before this season his actual ERAs were significantly higher than his xFIPs. Which is why he lost so many games, got bumped from postseason rotations, etc.
Quantitatively, he's become a different sort of pitcher, throwing more two-seamers and significantly more changeups (which of course are a sort of "sinking" pitch, too).
Qualitatively, though? Six starts aren't enough to tell us much of anything, let alone that we should trust Lincecum's microscopic homer-to-flyball rate (and kudos to Passan for mentioning that). Throwing more sinkers should mean fewer flyballs, of course; what it shouldn't mean is fewer home runs per flyball.
From 2012 through '14, 13 percent of Lincecum's flyballs allowed flew over the fence. Now, 13 percent is higher than we expect, and goes a long way toward explaining why Lincecum's ERAs have been so much higher than his xFIPs.
This year? Here's every home run that Lincecum has given up in 2015:
One.
Twenty-eight flyballs, struck by all manner of the World's Greatest Hitters. And yet somehow just one, struck by the Immortal -- hey, maybe someday! -- Nolan Arenado has managed to clear a fence.
This, as I probably don't need to tell you, is highly unusual. Even Clayton Kershaw, our most accomplished pitcher, has given up home runs on 7 percent of his flyballs allowed in his career. Dallas Keuchel, our most accomplished sinkerballer, has given up home runs on 9 percent of his flyballs allowed over the past two seasons. Exceptional pitchers can beat the game, to some degree. But most starting pitchers will wind up at around 10 percent, given enough innings and enough flyballs.
And so will Tim Lincecum, most likely.
Hey, if you believe in xFIP, Lincecum's due some good luck. A whole season's worth, actually. But betting on the Gambler's Fallacy is a great way to lose all your money. Better to just figure he'll have just average luck the rest of the way ... which would still represent a big win for both him and the Giants. Whether it's enough to fool somebody into giving Lincecum another huge contract next winter ... Hey, it takes only one. But it's not our money. What we want, I think, is simply to see Tim Lincecum still pitching in the majors next spring. And with just that average luck, we will.
